New York Jets -3.0 @ Oakland Raiders +3.0
Public Perception:
Jets - Brett Favre continues to skew lines towards the Jets. People love him, and when he got traded to Jets, everyone started talking playoffs. After burying Arizona and covering against Cincinnati, no reason for the betting public to believe they can't cover a measly 3 points against the lowly Raiders.
Raiders - After firing Lane Kiffin, Al Davis went on to have one of the most bizarre press conferences ever. He, as well as the team, is a complete laughing stock. Tom Cable is not a capable head coach. They got completely destroyed by New Orleans (pass happy, like the Jets) but more alarmingly they were completely shut down on offense against a fairly mediocre defense. If they couldn't stop New Orleans, how will they stop the Jets?
The Matchups:
Jets 5th in NFL points scored for VS. Raiders 27th in points against.
Brett Favre VS. Raiders 25th ranked passing defense.
Raiders 29th ranked passing attack shouldn't be able to exploit the Jets bad passing defense...
Raiders 4th ranked rushing attack faces the Jet's 3rd ranked rushing defense.
Now I know this is oversimplified, but my point is simply this; the average capper looking at the stats sees a Raiders team that can't pass the ball and relies on the run, which is perfect for the Jets since their rushing defense is their strong point. The Jets, meanwhile, get to unleash Brett Favre on the league's 25th worst passing defense. We saw the simplicity that Cutler and Brees moved the ball against them with.
Conclusion:
Bookies know that the public overvalues the Jets and undervalues the Raiders. So they know they can tweak the spread accordingly (-a half point or two on the Jets, +half a point or two for the Raiders). Then you look at the statistics/capping 101 breakdown of this game, and there is a lot to like about the Jets here.
So why on earth is this spread only 3? And why hasn't it moved? EVERYONE is on the Jets, and everyone seems fine paying extra juice to take them at such a bargain number, too.
If you don't believe in trap spreads, take the Jets, they are clearly the pick. I for one will be on Oakland; way way way too obvious in my opinion that the books are up to something on this one.
Public Perception:
Jets - Brett Favre continues to skew lines towards the Jets. People love him, and when he got traded to Jets, everyone started talking playoffs. After burying Arizona and covering against Cincinnati, no reason for the betting public to believe they can't cover a measly 3 points against the lowly Raiders.
Raiders - After firing Lane Kiffin, Al Davis went on to have one of the most bizarre press conferences ever. He, as well as the team, is a complete laughing stock. Tom Cable is not a capable head coach. They got completely destroyed by New Orleans (pass happy, like the Jets) but more alarmingly they were completely shut down on offense against a fairly mediocre defense. If they couldn't stop New Orleans, how will they stop the Jets?
The Matchups:
Jets 5th in NFL points scored for VS. Raiders 27th in points against.
Brett Favre VS. Raiders 25th ranked passing defense.
Raiders 29th ranked passing attack shouldn't be able to exploit the Jets bad passing defense...
Raiders 4th ranked rushing attack faces the Jet's 3rd ranked rushing defense.
Now I know this is oversimplified, but my point is simply this; the average capper looking at the stats sees a Raiders team that can't pass the ball and relies on the run, which is perfect for the Jets since their rushing defense is their strong point. The Jets, meanwhile, get to unleash Brett Favre on the league's 25th worst passing defense. We saw the simplicity that Cutler and Brees moved the ball against them with.
Conclusion:
Bookies know that the public overvalues the Jets and undervalues the Raiders. So they know they can tweak the spread accordingly (-a half point or two on the Jets, +half a point or two for the Raiders). Then you look at the statistics/capping 101 breakdown of this game, and there is a lot to like about the Jets here.
So why on earth is this spread only 3? And why hasn't it moved? EVERYONE is on the Jets, and everyone seems fine paying extra juice to take them at such a bargain number, too.
If you don't believe in trap spreads, take the Jets, they are clearly the pick. I for one will be on Oakland; way way way too obvious in my opinion that the books are up to something on this one.
