If you beat the closing number by 1 point (on average) would you hit over 53%?

[nimue77]

Yeah, alabama by 3 - it's about time I hit something

or getting Vanderbilt +3.5 when -3 was consenus pretty much everywhere(they lost by 3). Oh those gambling gods, they must know I posted this. I have 3 situations like this and I haven't one in almost a week.

 

[nimue77]

Well, you can. You can have the opener at say -6 (lowest all day) and the closer at +9 (highest all day) - one could argue that both lines are "the best of it."

The Closeing line is just a number that has been "trampled" on by Gawd only knows who ALL day long.
You will find out that the "real" sharps and the "sharp groups" are looking for the BEST of the number at ALL times.
Now if the opener was the BEST of the number, do you actaully think that the closeing number, which might be as many as 2-4 points from the opener an by beating that number by a mere point you have the best of it?
Just think about it! I think you will see the point.

 

[Iceman]

I ran this situation through my program for this season. I checked it against home favorites. Here is what the results were:

Home favs this year are winning at .488
If give them an extra 1 point........ .526 or + .038
If give them an extra 2 ............. .572 or + .084
If give them an extra 3 ............. .598 or + .11
If give them an extra 4 ............. .629 or + .141
If give them an extra 4.5............. .644 or + .156
So for this study, 1 pt will add about 3.8% to your win percentage. A 4 pt teaser will increase your odds on each leg by 14.1%. A 5 pter, 15.6%. Biggest jump was between 1 and 2 pts.

Hope this helps.
Ron

Take that in reverse and if home favs are covering at 48.8 than road dogs must be 51.2%, now add in 4% points to that number.

 

[Iceman]

Anyone that says it don't matter is flat out wrong (esp. in hoops). You and i should hit around 50% of our plays, if I get an extra half point to a point than this will effect a few games turning me from a loser to a winner!!!

 

[Iceman]

Well, you can. You can have the opener at say -6 (lowest all day) and the closer at +9 (highest all day) - one could argue that both lines are "the best of it."

I would say 100% they are both good bets

 

[jwunderdog]

SKYBOOK....free halfs everyday.....up to $300.

Also suggest investing in a MINIMUM of two monitors........this will enable you greatly in getting better numbers and with experience, the VERY BEST number the vast majority of the time.

-FISH-

Only problem is they have changed a lot over the last 3 years. They hang the lines later, and slant them with juice. Much harder to get a one point advantage now then it was 3 years ago.

 

[ronaldn]

Take that in reverse and if home favs are covering at 48.8 than road dogs must be 51.2%, now add in 4% points to that number.

Yes that would work but I would like to caution you that while this year so far they are 51.2%, historically the figures each year will fall very, very close to 50%. I have tracked these things for many years and the linemaker does an absolutely fantastic job of keeping things very close to 50%.

 

[Iceman]

Only problem is they have changed a lot over the last 3 years. They hang the lines later, and slant them with juice. Much harder to get a one point advantage now then it was 3 years ago.

If you pay attention closely sometimes you can find the juice to your advantage. For example I just bet Idaho St +((with free half point) and got it at -108. Most books are +8.5 -110. Not a huge difference but a few dollars.

 

[nimue77]

I do agree that the closing number is slightly more likely to hit...since it is the concensus line after being out there for a while.....and obviously 1/2 point matters - if anything ever hits then it matters.

I would think in basketball adding a point to the closing # on either side would make you a long term winner. From what I understand the closing # hits closer to 50% then the openning. If one point doesn't make you a winner then the value of a 1/2 point being worth 3 to 5 % is thrown out the window.

 

[buzzerbeater9]

I know most people will say that buying the hook or the 1/2 pt is wrong but it makes me feel better and I do it sometimes. I always make a -3.5 into a -3 in baskets to make it 1 possession. Also +1.5 into +2,-2.5 into -2, & +2.5 into +3. I can usually find this for less than the full dime now at bet exchanges. For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.

 

[randyrohm]

It took a lot of wise men to convince me but buying the hook is not worth it.

 

[Iceman]

I know most people will say that buying the hook or the 1/2 pt is wrong but it makes me feel better and I do it sometimes. I always make a -3.5 into a -3 in baskets to make it 1 possession. Also +1.5 into +2,-2.5 into -2, & +2.5 into +3. I can usually find this for less than the full dime now at bet exchanges. For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.

I'm sure if it helped you ( and hurt the books) than the books would not offer it to you.

 

[wantitall4moi]

You cannot simply look at openers and closers either, that is the problem. You have to look at the BEST number, be it opener, closer, or somewhere in the middle.

This year has been a small anomoly in terms of expectation. It is almost a 3% difference for a one point "better" number overall. Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time.

Vig is more important than spread, that is a general rule of thumb to carry with you.

When people can't even agree on what the best number is/was, then trying to figure out the specifics is impossible.

Half the guys will tell you they got -4, while some guys with exchanges or a rogue books got -3.5 at some point. (both assuming -110). While some will say they took -4 -110, but now can get -4.5 +103. The people will try and tell you which is "better". When there really is no answer. Although they will continue to cite how much Pinny or other books charge for a half point or a point, which is irrelevant.

There is no secret formula, the less you have taken out on a win is always the best policy. Or the less you risk up front for a better pay off on a win (depending on if you lay 110 to win 100 or 100 to win 90.90).

Unless you aremaking thousands of bets or thousands of dollars, then even that (vig) is slightly overrated.

So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.

 

[jwunderdog]

"Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time."

You are saying that historically in Baskeball, 1 point only comes into play a little over 2 times out of 100? Over what time frame and sport(nba or NCaa) is your data?

 

[wantitall4moi]

Both NBA and NCAA is about 2.5% since 1995 in terms of a 1/2 and 1 point differential making a difference. Mostly a push to a win, or a loss to a push. From a loser to a winner it is actually less than 1%(not exactly sure the results as I can't break thm down that specifically, but by looking over the results.)

This year it is slightly more for some reason, at least in the NCAA, in the NBA it is hard to tell since it is a smaller sample size.

But since most epopel don't reguallry get a full point off an extreme then this data is not something that people have to really worry about.

As I have said in the past about this data, it is OK to have, but not all that relevant to betting. Basically it makes for good debates.

 

[D2bets]

So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.

What a bunch of nonsense. :missingte

 

[wantitall4moi]

If you can pick/recognize winning sides (teams not spreads) then vig is hands down the most important factor. 80% of the time even getting the VERY BEST number does not matter.

People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.

While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.

 

[Salain]

Both NBA and NCAA is about 2.5% since 1995 in terms of a 1/2 and 1 point differential making a difference. Mostly a push to a win, or a loss to a push. From a loser to a winner it is actually less than 1%(not exactly sure the results as I can't break thm down that specifically, but by looking over the results.)

...sorry, that's really not correct. Real number is 3.7% +/- 0.4 (99% confidence interval) added to the win %, that's pushes to wins on whole numbers, pushes to wins on .5s and losses to pushes on wholes off the denom. Loss to push is 2.1% - Push to win is 1.82% - Loss to win is 1.97%

Based on about 9 seasons.

 

[D2bets]

If you can pick/recognize winning sides (teams not spreads) then vig is hands down the most important factor. 80% of the time even getting the VERY BEST number does not matter.

People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.

While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.

More nonsense.

Keep it coming... :grandmais

 

[PanchoSanza]

More nonsense.

Keep it coming... :grandmais

Dont egg him on, he could spend the rest of eternity spewing nonsense.ucking: