If you are beating the closing numbers this year in CBB, the last month has been bad!

[JohnnyB]

Here's an example from tonight Icey:

Pepperdine/Gonzaga

Opened at 132, moved up to 137.5. Just now, (about an hour and a half before gametime) it moved to 139.5 or 140.0. Obviously I would assume you wouldn't take the O137.5, so would you pass entirely or take the U140.0 since it's a peak number?

As of now, I'm passing entirely.

 

[Iceman]

Here's an example from tonight Icey:

Pepperdine/Gonzaga

Opened at 132, moved up to 137.5. Just now, (about an hour and a half before gametime) it moved to 139.5 or 140.0. Obviously I would assume you wouldn't take the O137.5, so would you pass entirely or take the U140.0 since it's a peak number?

As of now, I'm passing entirely.

Not sure how much I can help you as I dont bet at all like that anymore. I bet this a few minutes after open last night, not really happy about missing the best number but I was betting other stuff as it was such a big board for tonight's action and didnt get to this game until it had moved a few points last night. I ended up getting over 136. Still a very good number that I am very happy with.

Obviously the 132 was not even close to the right number when it came out, not sure how much stock I would put into that. The opener was probably close to 135. I wouldnt have had a problem with over 137 when it hit but this is the exact thing that drove me nuts, missing out on better numbers that were avaibile. I just couldnt stand that. I made the line 140.5, so no value on the under to me unless it gets up to 145 (which isnt happening obviously). I guess you couldnt go wrong with under 140.5 either everytime in this spot. I think whatever way you choose to operate you must do it everytime consistently or you will drive yourself nuts. I just dont know other then SIA (which is debatable even) how you are even getting steam plays in anymore. A local I imagine?

This example is a very good one and situations like this is why I have went a different direction with how I bet. Beating the closing line is always a good barometer if you are placing good bets or not. I have always felt if you could discipline yourself to only bet a peak numbers you should win. Using the super bowl is another good example. I bet under 47.5 right when it opened. I know that is a good bet because the market confirms the line should be 46.5 now. This is how I use the market nowadays. All my focus is now on making a number and using that information to place bets that are already a half notch better then the consensus number on games that are far enough off the line I made. I then go out and try and find a better line at one of 13 different outs and then when hopefully the line move hits this confirms I was on the right side.

 

[trytrytry]

Wolf its been hard on value players getting the best numbers past 10 days or so... hang in there they are overlays even if they are losing 4 out of 5 right now!!

 

[JohnnyB]

Wolf its been hard on value players getting the best numbers past 10 days or so... hang in there they are overlays even if they are losing 4 out of 5 right now!!

Yep, pretty crappy night again tonight. 4-6-1. Not terrible, but it would be to see a positive number for a change.

Most frustrating game was Tennessee Tech and Austin Peay. Opened at 156, closed at 153.3 at most places, I had U157.0 and of course it lands on 158.

(deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run...

Sometimes it's harder than it seems. uke1:

 

[trytrytry]

Yep, pretty crappy night again tonight. 4-6-1. Not terrible, but it would be to see a positive number for a change.

Most frustrating game was Tennessee Tech and Austin Peay. Opened at 156, closed at 153.3 at most places, I had U157.0 and of course it lands on 158.

(deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run... (deep breath) just think of the long run...

Sometimes it's harder than it seems. uke1:

ditto ditto ditto had the same game..... hang in there overlays are the way to go! reduced juice helps in times like this also..betphoenix had that at -105 tonight for example..adds up over the long run to get away from -110

 

[Akillies]

wolf you not alone
one reputable tout who moves the lines on cbb totals is down for the month against wa lines, against openers only barely ahead

 

[JohnnyB]

wolf you not alone
one reputable tout who moves the lines on cbb totals is down for the month against wa lines, against openers only barely ahead

RAS?

I was hoping it was syndicates moving the lines, not touts. :shocked:

 

[whalewager]

ras is a syndicate imo

the % on college totals this year were amazing...moving the line 5 points (up until recently)

middle heaven...

ras service isnt the guy behind those picks though

 

[Akillies]

i cant say for sure on the syndicate action, cause they dont publish a log of there pics.

 

[JohnnyB]

whale, it's clear from threads like this and from hearing you talk about sides/middles and the value of a half point that you know your stuff. Wish you would spend more time discussing intelligent gambling topics and less time cultivating your online persona...

 

[whalewager]

shit happens johnny b

 

[oldirtyku]

Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaak

 

[TheWolf]

small profits Thurs & Friday and back to an early Saturday ass beating again...... 1-7 on totals to kick off today! Time to get out the f'n shovel again to start digging.

I noticed Cris hung totals early last night on college hoops. Many were banged all around.... Did they hang overnight totals last year on college? I dont recall.

 

[JohnnyB]

Yep, shaping up to be a bloodbath so far. Hope we can bounce back.

Don't see how anyone could do this for a living without having a nervous breakdown...

 

[Iceman]

small profits Thurs & Friday and back to an early Saturday ass beating again...... 1-7 on totals to kick off today! Time to get out the f'n shovel again to start digging.

I noticed Cris hung totals early last night on college hoops. Many were banged all around.... Did they hang overnight totals last year on college? I dont recall.

they started putting them up the night before about jan 10th or so.

 

[TheWolf]

Do you know if they did that last year Ice? I didnt think anyone posted totals until around 1030AM every morning last year.

 

[King.Of.College.Totals]

Do you know if they did that last year Ice? I didnt think anyone posted totals until around 1030AM every morning last year.

I started betting CBB overnight totals at the end of January '08 and they had overnights up every night. Sometimes the Saturday numbers didn't come out until really late Friday night (3 am EST), but they were always up prior to gameday.

 

[Iceman]

/

 

[TheWolf]

recouped about half from earlier today but still another losing day.

 

[Rude]

Not today. Beat the # and it turned into a +4 Dimes Day! ope: