If I were a sportsbook....

[tool21]

I would fake reverse line movement on trap lines and you would lose your asses all season long!! :missingte

Every other thread i hear talk about line movement influencing your play.
Since when did it become smarter to play on a move from -2 to -4 instead of grabbing 2 free points??? hno:

Do proper capping and get as many pts as you can!


PS. If it works for you great! But I've put many hrs into researching line movement results and it's a coin flip, imagine that.

 

[tool21]

I meant to put this thread in College forums, but i guess it applies in NFL too. hno:

 

[Twisted]

RIGHT!!! I've been saying that for years.

That site with the bull nxt to logo is great for fading movement. I never tracked playing against mvmnt but have done it many times going against the big moves there and won more than lost. Hope it works this wknd I love the other side of their most popular pick. I think the Fins will fall flat on their faces in LA and will be nice if it hits 3

:toast:

 

[OverThinker]

RIGHT!!! I've been saying that for years.

That site with the bull nxt to logo is great for fading movement. I never tracked playing against mvmnt but have done it many times going against the big moves there and won more than lost. Hope it works this wknd I love the other side of their most popular pick. I think the Fins will fall flat on their faces in LA and will be nice if it hits 3

:toast:

The only reason I'm not playing phins is cause it stinks of the most overwhelmingly lopsided action of the week (wouldn't be surprised at all if it got all way to -3). I just don't see many folks willing to back the lambs other than the most extreme contrarians. Impossible to cap this thing considering none of us really know how far goff has come since we last saw him stink it up in preseason. Not real sure what would make you like la other than the contrarian angle?

Far as context of thread i never bet on a team after spread moves thier way. As op mentioned there nothing sharp about betting into a juiced up inflated line. Obviously there times early in the week I know a spread gonna move and I get in early, honestly I think at best I'm 50/50 on such games.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Sometimes the line moves because the book is baiting the unpopular side. Knowing they will get flooded with fav money prior to gameday no matter what, they markup the fav to make the dog look really attractive and scare you off the fav. This will happen when books think fav will cover. As week goes on, line drops a few points and line chasers think dog must be the play. Helps books offset all the public bets winning on the fav.

 

[tool21]

The only reason I'm not playing phins is cause it stinks of the most overwhelmingly lopsided action of the week (wouldn't be surprised at all if it got all way to -3). I just don't see many folks willing to back the lambs other than the most extreme contrarians. Impossible to cap this thing considering none of us really know how far goff has come since we last saw him stink it up in preseason. Not real sure what would make you like la other than the contrarian angle?

Far as context of thread i never bet on a team after spread moves thier way. As op mentioned there nothing sharp about betting into a juiced up inflated line. Obviously there times early in the week I know a spread gonna move and I get in early, honestly I think at best I'm 50/50 on such games.

Great point on Goff.

If his college stats are any indication, he's a learner. Improved every year he played. He was average/sub average in preseason, who knows how much better he is now. Gotta pass on that game until i see him play.

The college forum is FLOODED with cappers who blindly bet on reverse line movement. It makes me sick. Not that it's a bad pick, but you already missed out on the pick lol. You're giving yourself a disadvantage with a worse line. The NFL lines are so f'n tight, that ANY line movement more than 2pts should be looked at for a play the other way. 2pts is HUGE in NFL! (im not speaking for any specific game, just line movement in general)

 

[OverThinker]

Great point on Goff.

If his college stats are any indication, he's a learner. Improved every year he played. He was average/sub average in preseason, who knows how much better he is now. Gotta pass on that game until i see him play.

The college forum is FLOODED with cappers who blindly bet on reverse line movement. It makes me sick. Not that it's a bad pick, but you already missed out on the pick lol. You're giving yourself a disadvantage with a worse line. The NFL lines are so f'n tight, that ANY line movement more than 2pts should be looked at for a play the other way. 2pts is HUGE in NFL! (im not speaking for any specific game, just line movement in general)

I hear ya. It makes absolutely no sense to bet after the move unless you fading it. Of course attempting to bet games based off line movement has never made much sense to me. I've always capped the game and bet where I see value, plenty of times that includes being on opposite side of such moves cause as you pointing out the move creates the value.. the one exception I have where a move can influence my play is I never play on a team books opened as dogs and money moves to favs, quite often I bet against move in these cases as a long time ago someone I had great deal of respect for pointed this out. Always made sense to me that oddsmakers know best so I trust who they open as the favorite or pass (obviously if there other factors like injury, suspensions, etc that different story)..

far as that mia/la game my initial reaction was fish and I still tend to think this a tough defense to start the kid against no matter how improved he may be. As I said tho I can't pretend to have a clue how ready he is now opposed to last we saw. Clouding matters even more is the incompetence of lambs front office and head coach. One would think if they held goff out this long he must be ready or why decide now? Not like last week was the 1st time lambs failed to score a td! Teams been stacking box so heavily they reducing gurley to Trent Richardson! It would have been easy to rush him. At same time fisher and co the definition of mediocre and don't have a clue what a NFL offense looks like. Are they even qualified to determine a qb's readiness? Fisher best skill is somehow keeping his job, is this a mandate from management/ownership and goff be damned he needs contract extension? The reason I initially wanted to bet fish is cause even if Goff substantially Better than last viewed he still playing for the worst offensive coaching staff in the league, a staff that regularly fails to develop offensive talent they draft, behind a extreamly suspect oline, and lacking playmakers. In the end just seems like a easy pass in a week I see a lot of td spreads in games I think will be much closer!!