Here is your answer college boy...
Based on 1,000 dollar bets..
If a player goes 51-49 he loses 2900
If a book goes 51-49, he wins 7100
___________
If a player goes 52-48, he loses 800
If the book goes 52-48, they win 9200
_______
If a player goes 53-47, he wins 1,300
If a book goes 53-47, he wins 11,300
________
If a player goes 56-44, he wins ONLY 7600
If the book goes 56-44, he wins 17,600
____
If the player goes 59-41, he wins 13,900
If the book goes 59-41, they win 23,900
__________________________________
_______________________________
So as you see, when the book has an identical record to you, they kick your ass big time by winning way way more than the player, and the ONLY reason for all this, and the only reason why 97.6% of players lose, besides the chasing, the bad money management, and so forth.. is the vigorish.. (the juice) It just adds up and adds up.
It is just about mathematically impossible to overcome the juice for the average gambler over the very long haul
Based on 1,000 dollar bets..
If a player goes 51-49 he loses 2900
If a book goes 51-49, he wins 7100
___________
If a player goes 52-48, he loses 800
If the book goes 52-48, they win 9200
_______
If a player goes 53-47, he wins 1,300
If a book goes 53-47, he wins 11,300
________
If a player goes 56-44, he wins ONLY 7600
If the book goes 56-44, he wins 17,600
____
If the player goes 59-41, he wins 13,900
If the book goes 59-41, they win 23,900
__________________________________
_______________________________
So as you see, when the book has an identical record to you, they kick your ass big time by winning way way more than the player, and the ONLY reason for all this, and the only reason why 97.6% of players lose, besides the chasing, the bad money management, and so forth.. is the vigorish.. (the juice) It just adds up and adds up.
It is just about mathematically impossible to overcome the juice for the average gambler over the very long haul
The most overlooked element of the "point spread" is sentiment - that is what the public is going to 'think and act' when they see the line for the first time.
When the odds on a game are made, the oddsmakers KNOW through experience how the money is going to come in, and adjust what might be the actual spread (the true point differences in the teams) accordingly. In short, they know if and how the line is going to move AND how the money is going to come in over time - and this is factored in to the original number (point spread) that is used.
That and the juice makes up the house edge.
The real wiseguys understand this (again through experience) and use this to their advantage. The general betting public has no chance long haul.
When the odds on a game are made, the oddsmakers KNOW through experience how the money is going to come in, and adjust what might be the actual spread (the true point differences in the teams) accordingly. In short, they know if and how the line is going to move AND how the money is going to come in over time - and this is factored in to the original number (point spread) that is used.
That and the juice makes up the house edge.
The real wiseguys understand this (again through experience) and use this to their advantage. The general betting public has no chance long haul.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by collegegambler:
I Don't understand how gambling on sports is essentially a 50/50 proposition yet the winners over the long haul are outnumberd maybe 95-5 by the losers.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I think balls of blue said it best..chasing, someone loses and they see any game left on the board and the hit the fav for double...sad stuff
I Don't understand how gambling on sports is essentially a 50/50 proposition yet the winners over the long haul are outnumberd maybe 95-5 by the losers.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I think balls of blue said it best..chasing, someone loses and they see any game left on the board and the hit the fav for double...sad stuff
Simple - it's the VIG.
If you're a pure side and total player (the standard) then consider that assuming you win 50% then
- at standard -110 lines you are expected to lose $5 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 110 and win 100 and lay 110 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 110).
* 10 bets = $50 loss
* 100 bets = $500 loss
* 365 bets = $1825 loss
- at normal reduced juice price of -107, you are expected to lose $3.50 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 107 and win 100 and lay 107 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 107).
* 10 bets = $35 loss
* 100 bets = $350 loss
* 365 bets = $1277.50 losss
- at best reduced juice price of -105, you are expected to lose $2.50 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 105 and win 100 and lay 105 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 105).
* 10 bets = $25 loss
* 100 bets = $250 loss
* 365 bets = $912.50 losss
----------------------------------
So as you can see, you are expected to lose $1825/year if you bet $100/day @ -110 OR lose $912.50/year if you bet $100/day @ -105.
Ta da.
If you're a pure side and total player (the standard) then consider that assuming you win 50% then
- at standard -110 lines you are expected to lose $5 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 110 and win 100 and lay 110 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 110).
* 10 bets = $50 loss
* 100 bets = $500 loss
* 365 bets = $1825 loss
- at normal reduced juice price of -107, you are expected to lose $3.50 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 107 and win 100 and lay 107 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 107).
* 10 bets = $35 loss
* 100 bets = $350 loss
* 365 bets = $1277.50 losss
- at best reduced juice price of -105, you are expected to lose $2.50 per $100 bet. (if you bet twice, you lay 105 and win 100 and lay 105 and lose. you've won 100 and lost 105).
* 10 bets = $25 loss
* 100 bets = $250 loss
* 365 bets = $912.50 losss
----------------------------------
So as you can see, you are expected to lose $1825/year if you bet $100/day @ -110 OR lose $912.50/year if you bet $100/day @ -105.
Ta da.
General,
Excellent point about parleys. Even if you get true odds (which you probably won't) you'll still have kicked your self in the ass because RARELY does shopping for 2 or more events all end up at one shop (except for Pin which doesn't have great parley payouts anyways).
Parleys are rarely smart gambling moves*. In fact, if I were a betting man
I'd say that parleys have a high correlation with "chasing" (the imaginary Dell syndrome).
* PO offered a great example when this is not the case. If you can get yourself a semi-correlated parley then you've make a very smart play. PO suggested the under/dog in hockey. I suggest defensive teams & the under over high scoring teams in hockey.
Excellent point about parleys. Even if you get true odds (which you probably won't) you'll still have kicked your self in the ass because RARELY does shopping for 2 or more events all end up at one shop (except for Pin which doesn't have great parley payouts anyways).
Parleys are rarely smart gambling moves*. In fact, if I were a betting man
* PO offered a great example when this is not the case. If you can get yourself a semi-correlated parley then you've make a very smart play. PO suggested the under/dog in hockey. I suggest defensive teams & the under over high scoring teams in hockey.
