If Election Were Held Today, Look Who Wins!!!!

THE SHRINK · Oct 31, 2004

<TABLE class=main summary=""><TBODY><TR><TD>News and Polls from today from the most popular election site online...

www.electoral-vote.com

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<H1 align=left>Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 283 Bush 246</H1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

News from the Votemaster

It was bound to happen and it happened. Today we have more state polls than there are states. There are 54 new polls in 22 states today. Furthermore, the lead has changed in five states, and all five changes favor Kerry. As a result, Kerry has now passed Bush in the electoral college. If today's results are the final results Wednesday morning, John Kerry will be elected as the 44th President of the United States, with 283 votes in the electoral college to George Bush's 246. But don't count on it. Many of Kerry's leads are razor thin. Counting only the strong + weak states, Bush leads 229 to 196, with 113 electoral votes in the tossup category Kerry's leads in the tossup states mean little to nothing. The turnout Tuesday will determine who wins.

Let's take a look at what happened state by state. New polls in Iowa, Michigan and New Mexico reverse Bush's previous leads and now favor Kerry by 1% in each case, well within the margin of error (about 4% in most cases). New Hampshire, which had been in the Bush column is now tied at 47% each. Finally, New Jersey is now safely back in the Kerry column with an 8% lead. Kerry retains his lead in Florida and Bush retains his lead in Ohio.

Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen, and Zogby all released multiple polls yesterday in many of the battleground states. Here is a table summarizing the results. The last column shows the Kerry-Bush-Tied score, including all the polls even those not shown (also Strategic Vision).

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="Poll comparison" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=edu-1b>State</TD><TD class=edu-1b>Mason-Dixon</TD><TD class=edu-1b>Rasmussen</TD><TD class=edu-1b>Zogby</TD><TD class=edu-1b>K-B-T</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Florida</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 4%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1-2-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Iowa</TD><TD class=medium-3> </TD><TD class=medium-3>Tied</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2-2-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Michigan</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 3%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3-0-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Minnesota</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 3%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2-2-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>New Mexico</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 4%</TD><TD class=medium-3> </TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 9%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1-2-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Nevada</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 6%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Tied</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 4%</TD><TD class=medium-2>0-2-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Ohio</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 3%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 1%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Bush by 5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>0-4-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Pennsylvania</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 3%</TD><TD class=medium-2>4-0-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-3>Wisconsin</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 2%</TD><TD class=medium-3>Kerry by 8%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3-2-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Since Friday, I am also producing a map showing an average of the nonpartisan polls with a lookback window of 3 days. To see it, click on Averaged polls on the menu.

Now let's take a quick look at the national Zogby tracking poll. This poll is especially interesting because the 2000 data for the same period is available. Kerry has now edged into the lead, holding a statistically insignificant 1% lead over Bush. Also noteworthy is that Ralph Nader has picked up a bit of support and could once again throw the election to Bush.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="National polls 2004" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=medium-1b>Candidate</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-10</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-9</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-8</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-7</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-6</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-5</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-4</TD><TD class=edu-1b>Final</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Kerry</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2>45%</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2>47%</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2>47%</TD><TD class=medium-2>47%</TD><TD class=medium-2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Bush</TD><TD class=medium-2>48%</TD><TD class=medium-2>48%</TD><TD class=medium-2>49%</TD><TD class=medium-2>48%</TD><TD class=medium-2>48%</TD><TD class=medium-2>47%</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Nader</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2%</TD><TD class=medium-2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Other</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>0%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2%</TD><TD class=medium-2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Undecided</TD><TD class=medium-2>4%</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3%</TD><TD class=medium-2>4%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3%</TD><TD class=medium-2>3%</TD><TD class=medium-2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Now let's compare these results to 2000. Here are the corresponding numbers. The sums are not 100% due to roundoff error. Comparing these two tables, Kerry is in a far better position than Gore was at this point in 2000. Not only is he not trailing by 4%, he is actually slightly ahead. On the other hand, there are few undecideds left because they have already broken for the challenger, as they usually do.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="National polls 2000" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=medium-1b>Candidate</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-10</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-9</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-8</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-7</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-6</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-5</TD><TD class=edu-1b>E-4</TD><TD class=edu-1b>Final</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Gore</TD><TD class=medium-2>43%</TD><TD class=medium-2>42%</TD><TD class=medium-2>42%</TD><TD class=medium-2>41%</TD><TD class=medium-2>42%</TD><TD class=medium-2>42%</TD><TD class=medium-2>42%</TD><TD class=medium-2>48.38%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Bush</TD><TD class=medium-2>44%</TD><TD class=medium-2>45%</TD><TD class=medium-2>45%</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2>45%</TD><TD class=medium-2>45%</TD><TD class=medium-2>46%</TD><TD class=medium-2>47.87%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Nader</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>4%</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>5%</TD><TD class=medium-2>6%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2.74%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Other</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>2%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1%</TD><TD class=medium-2>1.01%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=medium-1>Undecided</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>7%</TD><TD class=medium-2>0%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As everyone knows, Bush supports amending the constitution to forbid same sex marriages, although he knows full well that this amendment has zero chance in Congress and will be completely forgotten after the election. The purpose of supporting it was to rally the 4 million evangelicals who didn't vote for him last time. It didn't work. The Los Angeles Times reports that he has less support among evangelicals than he had last time. Like other Americans, they are also concerned about health care, jobs and other issues. That's probably why last week and said it was OK with him if the states allow civil unions. In other words, forget the evangelicals and concentrate on the soccer moms in the Midwest who are fairly tolerant of civil unions. Well, that's politics for you.

The page with hits from universities has been updated. Compiling this list requires processing the October log, which has now grown to over 4 GB, just for the HTML pages. I received a request for compiling the hits from British Universities, so here is the list from the .ac.uk domain. Of course, it may mostly reflect where American exchange students are studying. Canada is harder to do since Canada does not have a single subdomain that can be grepped for. (That word is not yet in Webster's, but UNIX people know what I mean.)

In the event of an attack on the site, please try www.electoral-vote3.com, www.electoral-vote4.com, etc. In the coming days I may update the site multiple times/day. Whenever I change the main site, half a dozen 60 MB files get shipped out. It takes a while so the backups aren't as fresh as the main site, so use the main site unless it becomes unreachable. I just upgraded each of the main servers to 2 GB each. They should be able to handle a thousand requests/sec each now. Just getting those down will require a very large attack. Getting all the servers down will be nearly impossible.

Fishhead · Oct 31, 2004

This looks like a nailbiter.

Translation--I will not get paid for weeks.........welcome to my nightmares.

JudgeWapner · Oct 31, 2004

I am not very confident of a Kerry victory.

lander · Oct 31, 2004

Ken,
The key is here

<TABLE summary="Map legend" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

<TD>Barely Kerry (87) </TD></TR><TR><TD>

<TD>Exactly tied (9) </TD></TR><TR><TD>

<TD>Barely Bush (17)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

one day Bush gets these, the next Kerry, back and forth constantly ...

it's looking more and more like this election is coming down to voter turnout more than events over the next few days.

On a somewhat-related note, this key clearly explains why GameFarce is such a blinded hardcore Republican -- the pretty pink states match his panties :finger:

Dante · Oct 31, 2004

Ken yesterday Bush had 280.I posted it in the Poltics forum not sure how accurate this site you like is... USA today says bush is leading 50-44%

go figure :biggrinin

As of Oct 30 am

www.electoral-vote.com

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280

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Glaken · Oct 31, 2004

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</TD><TD noWrap align=middle width=243 background=images/bar_cont.gif height=13>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]<SCRIPT language=JavaScript>// Dynamic Date Dreamweaver Object (c) 1999 Michael West, webmaster@mwwebdesign.com// Please report any bugs or improvement suggestions.document.write("")var mydate=new Date()var year=mydate.getYear()if (year<2000)year += (year < 1900) ? 1900 : 0var day=mydate.getDay()var month=mydate.getMonth()var daym=mydate.getDate()if (daym<10)daym="0"+daymvar dayarray=new Array("Sunday","Monday","Tuesday","Wednesday","Thursday","Friday","Saturday")var montharray=new Array("January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December")document.write(" "+dayarray[day]+", "+montharray[month]+" "+daym+", "+year+" ")document.write("</i>")</SCRIPT> Sunday, October 31, 2004 </I> [/font]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=699 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left width=451 bgColor=#ffffff><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=450 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#ffffff><TD vAlign=center borderColor=#cccccc height=143>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Tracking Polls:[/font] [font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]ABC News/Washington Post: Bush 48, Kerry 48, Nader <1[/font][/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
[/font][/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]FOX: Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 1 | Reuters/Zogby: Kerry 48, Bush 48, Nader 1
[/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]-------State Polls------- [/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
OH: Columbus Dispatch: Bush 50, Kerry 50
IA: Des Moines Register: Kerry 48, Bush 45, Nader 1
MI: Detroit News: Kerry 43, Bush 41, Nader 2
MN: St. PP: Bush 48, Kerry 47, Nader 1, Star-Trib: Kerry 49, Bush 41, Nader 1
NM: Albuquerque Journal: Bush 47, Kerry 44, Nader 1
NJ: Star-Ledger: Kerry 45, Bush 41, Nader <1[/font][/font]

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#ffffff><TD vAlign=center borderColor=#cccccc bgColor=#cccccc height=11>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Sunday, October 31[/font]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#ffffff><TD vAlign=top borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff height=358>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Why It's 'All About Bush' - Ronald Brownstein, Los Angeles Times
Reelect Bush, Faults And All - George Will, Washington Post
The Apparent Heir - Thomas Friedman, New York Times
Bush Has the Character of a Leader. Kerry Does Not - Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe
A Campaign That Failed - Jim Hoagland, Washington Post
There's No There There for Kerry - Mark Steyn, Chicago Sun-Times
It's the Turnout, Stupid - Donald Lambro, Washington Times
The Vanishing Nonvoter - Chris Suellentrop, Slate
Who's a Likelier Heir to Reagan, Bush or Kerry? - Steve Forbes, WSJ
Liberals, Please Embrace the 'L' Word Again - B. Chester, Houston Chronicle
The Ambush Was Supposed to Have Been Tonight - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh PG
Another Contested Contest? - Matt Bai, NY Times Magazine
To the Losing Party May go the Spoils - Drake Bennett, Boston Globe
What Will We Face in the Next Four Years? - Henry Kissinger, Newsweek
If It's Kerry - Mike Waldman | If It's Bush - Ramesh Ponnuru - Washington Post[/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font]

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Editorials:
Right War, Right Time, Right Man - NY Daily News
The Osama Surprise - Washington Post
The Case for Kerry - The Guardian [/font]

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]ELECTION 2004 POLLS: Presidential, Graph | Battleground States | US Senate
ELECTION STORIES • GENERAL NEWS[/font] [font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]• EVENING UPDATES • COMMENTS[/font]

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[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]-------State Polls-------
MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon:
FL: Bush +4 | OH: Bush +2 | PA: Kerry +2 | WI: Kerry +2 | IA: Bush + 5
MI: Kerry +2 | NH: Kerry +1 | NM: Bush + 4 | NV: Bush +6
CO: Bush +7 | MO: Bush +5 | AR: Bush +8 | WV: Bush +8 | OR: Kerry +6
Reuters/Zogby:
FL: Kerry +2 | OH: Bush +5 | PA: Kerry +3 | WI: Kerry +8 | MN: Kerry +3
MI: Kerry +1 | NV: Bush +4 | NM: Bush +9 | CO: Bush +5 | IA: Kerry +1
[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]MN: St. PP: Bush 48, Kerry 47, Nader 1, Star-Trib: Kerry 49, Bush 41, Nader 1[/font]
Survey USA: NJ: Kerry +8, MD: Kerry +11, VA: Bush +4, NV: TIE
OH: Plain Dealer: Bush 48, Kerry 45 | PA: Inquirer: Kerry 48, Bush 47
NM: ARG: Kerry 48, Bush 47, Nader 1 | NH: ARG: Kerry 47, Bush 47, Nader 2
NH: UNH: Kerry 49, Bush 47, Nader 1, R2000: Kerry 49, Bush 46, Nader 2
NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kerry 47, Bush 40
-------National Polls-------
ABC News/Washington Post: Bush 49, Kerry 48, Nader <1
American Research Group: Kerry 48, Bush 48, Nader 1 | Kerry 49, Bush 48
Newsweek: Bush 50, Kerry 44, Nader 1 | Bush 51, Kerry 45 | Bush JA 46%
FOX : Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1 | Rasmussen: Bush 48.8, Kerry 48.3
Zogby: Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 2 | TIPP: Bush 46, Kerry 44, Nader 2
-------Senate Polls-------
FL: NYTRN: Castor +3, Zogby: Castor +1 | OK: Sooner Poll: Coburn +9
LA: MRI Tracking: Vitter (R) 47, John (D) 21, Kennedy (D) 15, Undecided 14
>>Daily Poll Summary for October 30<<[/font]

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#ffffff><TD vAlign=center borderColor=#cccccc bgColor=#cccccc height=11>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Saturday, October 30[/font]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left bgColor=#ffffff><TD vAlign=top borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff height=345>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]The Osama Litmus Test - David Brooks, New York Times
Impact of Tape on Race is Uncertain - Dana Milbank, Washington Post
Congratulations Michael Moore, bin Laden is a Big Fan - John Podhoretz, NY Post
Politicizing the Bin Laden Tape - Bill Kristol & Stephen Hayes, Weekly Standard
Fear And Loathing - William Powers, National Journal
Who's Got the Best Final Strategy? - Howard Fineman, Newsweek
Five Questions to Ask Before You Pull That Lever - Jack Welch, WSJ
Who Will Win? Kerry by a Hair - Dan Payne, Boston Globe
If the House Has to Break 269-269, Bush Wins - Michael Barone, US News & WR
Expect Huge Turnout and a Kerry Win - Eleanor Clift, Newsweek
Bush Will Protect and Defend - Carol Taber, Philadelphia Inquirer
A Post-Bush Mind-Set - Ellen Goodman, Washington Post
Please, No Post-Election Heroic Measures - Joseph Perkins, SD Union Tribune
So Far, No Repeat of Crippling Hangover of '29 - Tom Walsh, Detroit Free-Press
Liberal Iraqis Almost All Hope for Bush 's Re-Election - Lawrence Kaplan, WSJ
The Future of Palestine - Khalil Shikaki, Foreign Affairs
The Power of Will: Winning Still Matters - Victor Davis Hanson, National Review [/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][/font]

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Editorials:
Bin Laden's Helpful Reminder - Chicago Tribune
Osama Drops By for a Chat - NY Daily News
The End of the Arafat Era? - The Economist[/font]

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Glaken · Oct 31, 2004

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]RealClearPolitics National Averages[/font]

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#990000 bgColor=#990000><TD borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff height=11>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]3-Way Bush 48.1, Kerry 46.3, Nader 0.9 [/font]</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#990000 bgColor=#990000><TD borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99 height=18>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]» 3-Way Spread: Bush +1.8[/font]