Agree. Completely. No sensible way to expect anything other than a conservative, low scoring (ground) game here which even if Pats manage to get up big Brady is pulled then we're in a nice spot for backdoor cover with those double digits.
DD dogs in and especially within this Division, IMO at least, are nice +EV plays on a season long basis and particularly in this spot.
I've not looked at the History ATS off dd dogs by DIV but I'd bet a dollar to a donut AFC East is a standout for dd dogs covering. Tanks for da nice objective input from Beantown.
Belicheck's History in this spot, nothing to be gained, would be nice to know as well. Not to argue in favor or against the play but just for curiosity. Week 17 is the one week I get ALL the newsletters, no doubt something in regards to Bill's MO under these circumstances will be revealed and I'll post that here if so because it would be interesting to know...hopefully I can stumble across ATS record as dd fave in meaningless wk. 17 games lol and the sample size is bigger that, say, 2. We'll see.
| 311 BUFFALO BILLS | 44 | 44 | ||||
| 312 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | -10.5 +02 | -10.5 +02 / -10.5 +05 | -3.5 |
He better get Brady out of there ASAP. Anything else, at Tom's age, would risk a move so bonehead it would go down as among the stupidest coaching moves in NFL History and potentially tarnish Bill B's legacy.
Loved it at double digits of course, as did you. What does one do with -4 though? Buffalo off the crushing & humiliating loss to OAKLAND, are these guys gonna bring any motivation whatsoever to the stadium? I was euphoric at dd but dumb to expect the line would be gettable at that thanks to Denver but now I'm really scared of siding with Buffalo.
Not good news chonce.
In fact...I'm not sure it could be worse:
NE is 18-8-1 ATS as a single digit Fav and 16-6-1 ATS when one vs BUF.
In his L6 games vs BUF Brady has avg’d 281 ypg (62%) with a 15-3 ratio and Gronkowski has had 90 or more yds rec in 4 of his L5 games vs the Bills.
Brady loves to face top 10 defenses and in the L6 games vs them, NE is 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS.
Pats will have the #1 seed clinched but NE has been in that role often and are still 6-1-1 ATS in their season finale.
The only loss came in 2011, which was their undefeated season and they layed 13 on the road to the eventual SB champs NYG.
NE will also make it a point to not give a div foe any momentum or something to build on to finish a season and they have now won and covered their last 8 vs BUF & MIA at home.
Now I'm even more afraid.
In fact...I'm not sure it could be worse:
NE is 18-8-1 ATS as a single digit Fav and 16-6-1 ATS when one vs BUF.
In his L6 games vs BUF Brady has avg’d 281 ypg (62%) with a 15-3 ratio and Gronkowski has had 90 or more yds rec in 4 of his L5 games vs the Bills.
Brady loves to face top 10 defenses and in the L6 games vs them, NE is 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS.
Pats will have the #1 seed clinched but NE has been in that role often and are still 6-1-1 ATS in their season finale.
The only loss came in 2011, which was their undefeated season and they layed 13 on the road to the eventual SB champs NYG.
NE will also make it a point to not give a div foe any momentum or something to build on to finish a season and they have now won and covered their last 8 vs BUF & MIA at home.
Now I'm even more afraid.
