"I'd rather take them moneyline"

[letsgohoosiers]

BET on any team with a 5% or larger difference in moneyline percentage vs. spread percentage on SportsInsights.

Record so far this year:

23-9 +17.51 units

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="593" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="509"><col style="width: 31pt;" width="41"> <col style="width: 107pt;" width="142"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" span="2" width="32"> <col style="width: 25pt;" span="2" width="33"> <col style="width: 31pt;" width="41"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"> <tbody align="left"><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 31pt;" width="41" height="20">RUNS</td> <td style="width: 107pt;" id="mlpct_header" width="142">TEAM/PITCHER</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">BETS</td> <td style="width: 24pt;" width="32">SPR</td> <td style="width: 24pt;" width="32">ML</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">OP</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">CL</td> <td style="width: 31pt;" width="41">DATE</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">MARGIN</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">W/L</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">MONEY</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">H/A</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl64">931 ATL - D Lowe</td> <td class="xl64">23826</td> <td class="xl65">19%</td> <td class="xl65">40%</td> <td class="xl64">112</td> <td class="xl64">116</td> <td class="xl66">5-Apr</td> <td>3</td> <td>W</td> <td>116</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt; width: 31pt;" width="41" height="20"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t201" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="201" path="m,l,21600r21600,l21600,xe"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <vath shadowok="f" o:extrusionok="f" strokeok="f" fillok="f" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" shapetype="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_s1214" type="#_x0000_t201" style='position:absolute; margin-left:0;margin-top:0;width:1in;height:18pt;z-index:1;visibility:hidden' strokecolor="windowText [64]" o:insetmode="auto"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\Brian\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.emz" o:title=""/> <x:ClientData ObjectType="Pict"> <x:SizeWithCells/> <x:CF>Pict</x:CF> <x:AutoPict/> </x:ClientData> </v:shape><![endif]-->1</td> <td class="xl64">902 CIN - A Harang</td> <td class="xl64">21905</td> <td class="xl65">11%</td> <td class="xl65">23%</td> <td class="xl64">148</td> <td class="xl64">140</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>-1</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">8</td> <td class="xl64">903 COL - A Cook</td> <td class="xl64">16539</td> <td class="xl65">6%</td> <td class="xl65">24%</td> <td class="xl64">157</td> <td class="xl64">150</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>-1</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6</td> <td class="xl64">905 WAS - J Lannan</td> <td class="xl64">14965</td> <td class="xl65">7%</td> <td class="xl65">21%</td> <td class="xl64">152</td> <td class="xl64">147</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>-6</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6</td> <td class="xl64">907 PIT - P Maholm</td> <td class="xl64">11847</td> <td class="xl65">11%</td> <td class="xl65">36%</td> <td class="xl64">180</td> <td class="xl64">143</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>2</td> <td>W</td> <td>143</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl64">909 LOS - H Kuroda</td> <td class="xl64">12193</td> <td class="xl65">32%</td> <td class="xl65">53%</td> <td class="xl64">125</td> <td class="xl64">118</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>3</td> <td>W</td> <td>118</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl64">911 CUB - C Zambrano</td> <td class="xl64">18272</td> <td class="xl65">56%</td> <td class="xl65">66%</td> <td class="xl64">-108</td> <td class="xl64">-111</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>2</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">9</td> <td class="xl64">916 TEX - K Millwood</td> <td class="xl64">15302</td> <td class="xl65">37%</td> <td class="xl65">52%</td> <td class="xl64">118</td> <td class="xl64">102</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>8</td> <td>W</td> <td>102</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">10</td> <td class="xl64">920 BAL - J Guthrie</td> <td class="xl64">21855</td> <td class="xl65">7%</td> <td class="xl65">23%</td> <td class="xl64">176</td> <td class="xl64">172</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>5</td> <td>W</td> <td>172</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6</td> <td class="xl64">923 SEA - F Hernandz</td> <td class="xl64">17480</td> <td class="xl65">19%</td> <td class="xl65">31%</td> <td class="xl64">134</td> <td class="xl64">132</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>5</td> <td>W</td> <td>132</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0</td> <td class="xl64">925 OAK - D Braden</td> <td class="xl64">18489</td> <td class="xl65">12%</td> <td class="xl65">25%</td> <td class="xl64">144</td> <td class="xl64">130</td> <td class="xl66">6-Apr</td> <td>-3</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">10</td> <td class="xl64">952 SFO - T Lincecum</td> <td class="xl64">12767</td> <td class="xl65">64%</td> <td class="xl65">75%</td> <td class="xl64">-170</td> <td class="xl64">-162</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>4</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0</td> <td class="xl64">954 PHI - J Moyer</td> <td class="xl64">13599</td> <td class="xl65">53%</td> <td class="xl65">69%</td> <td class="xl64">-111</td> <td class="xl64">-106</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>-4</td> <td>L</td> <td>-106</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">8</td> <td class="xl64">956 FLA - J Johnson</td> <td class="xl64">16549</td> <td class="xl65">63%</td> <td class="xl65">82%</td> <td class="xl64">-152</td> <td class="xl64">-157</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>5</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">9</td> <td class="xl64">960 STL - K Lohse</td> <td class="xl64">19866</td> <td class="xl65">67%</td> <td class="xl65">85%</td> <td class="xl64">-150</td> <td class="xl64">-163</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>6</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">3</td> <td class="xl64">961 COL - U Jimenez</td> <td class="xl64">14272</td> <td class="xl65">4%</td> <td class="xl65">20%</td> <td class="xl64">144</td> <td class="xl64">148</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>3</td> <td>W</td> <td>148</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5</td> <td class="xl64">966 TOR - D Purcey</td> <td class="xl64">7580</td> <td class="xl65">45%</td> <td class="xl65">57%</td> <td class="xl64">-116</td> <td class="xl64">-105</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>1</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6</td> <td class="xl64">968 MIN - N Blackbur</td> <td class="xl64">16985</td> <td class="xl65">58%</td> <td class="xl65">72%</td> <td class="xl64">-118</td> <td class="xl64">-108</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>1</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl64">972 CWS - M Buehrle</td> <td class="xl64">12114</td> <td class="xl65">50%</td> <td class="xl65">63%</td> <td class="xl64">-138</td> <td class="xl64">-123</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>2</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5</td> <td class="xl64">974 BOS - J Beckett</td> <td class="xl64">19440</td> <td class="xl65">63%</td> <td class="xl65">79%</td> <td class="xl64">-142</td> <td class="xl64">-161</td> <td class="xl66">7-Apr</td> <td>2</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">901 WAS - D Cabrera</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">13015</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">12%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">24%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">152</td> <td class="xl64">132</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>-2</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">12</td> <td class="xl64">904 PHI - J Blanton</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">14747</td> <td class="xl65">64%</td> <td class="xl65">70%</td> <td class="xl64">-122</td> <td class="xl64">-114</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>1</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">9</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">905 COL - F Morales</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">6798</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">4%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">31%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">122</td> <td class="xl64">123</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>7</td> <td>W</td> <td>123</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7</td> <td class="xl64">908 CIN - E Volquez</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">12916</td> <td class="xl65">38%</td> <td class="xl65">55%</td> <td class="xl64">-115</td> <td class="xl64">-120</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>-2</td> <td>L</td> <td>-120</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">11</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">909 CUB - T Lilly</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">11193</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">64%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">74%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">-130</td> <td class="xl64">-124</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>5</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">911 PIT - Z Duke</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">17846</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">7%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">19%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">167</td> <td class="xl64">160</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>3</td> <td>W</td> <td id="sb2_0">160</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2</td> <td class="xl64">916 SFO - R Johnson</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">14064</td> <td class="xl65">29%</td> <td class="xl65">45%</td> <td class="xl64">-140</td> <td class="xl64">-102</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>-2</td> <td>L</td> <td>-102</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">917 DET - Z Miner</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">7025</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">35%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">48%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">130</td> <td class="xl64">127</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>4</td> <td>W</td> <td>127</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">921 Tampa Bay Rays - S Kazmir</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">15242</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">29%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">35%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">132</td> <td class="xl64">132</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>5</td> <td>W</td> <td>132</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">8</td> <td class="xl64">924 TEX - V Padilla</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">11886</td> <td class="xl65">45%</td> <td class="xl65">50%</td> <td class="xl64">-110</td> <td class="xl64">106</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>3</td> <td>W</td> <td>106</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">925 KAN - Z Greinke</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">13084</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">26%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">34%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">115</td> <td class="xl64">100</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>2</td> <td>W</td> <td>100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">927 SEA - C Silva</td> <td class="xl64" id="team">15787</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets">13%</td> <td class="xl65" id="spreadpct">19%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct">132</td> <td class="xl64">169</td> <td class="xl66">8-Apr</td> <td>-1</td> <td>L</td> <td>-100</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Play if you think it's something that will continue to hit. Fade if you think it's meaningless info that just happened to hit at 72%. I'm not quite sure what this data means.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Just noticed that games below 31% moneyline are 3-6 (-1.2 units), playing the other games would have net you a 20-3 (+18.71 units) record.

 

[bostondonk]

looks like good stuff hoosiers what would the plays be for today APRIL 9th

 

[meaculpa]

I'd normally think it simply by chance. On the other hand, if I understand the money-part correctly it seems most plays are (small) dogs. If that'd be the case then a logical explanation would be that relatively a lot of the betters (more than usual) think the game will be close (and so a relative big chance of ending with a 1-run difference) and thus indicating value for the, indeed, dogs. So yes, it would be interesting to see whether this trend continues in any shape of form.

The thing that's inconsistent with my quick possibility of an explanation is that it would imply that the bigger the dog, the bigger the value and thus the bigger the profit. However, I think that favorites are often the preferred playing-side (maybe not at sportsinsights though) and so the lower the ml the better it should be; which is currently the exact opposite of the recorded 3-6 (-1.2 units). On the other hand, those are only 9 games and so no real significance can be given to that yet.

In short, it could be something so might be interesting to look for some time how it holds up.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Strange, there only was one game that qualified today. It was the Rangers.

 

[bystander]

where you get this data from? thanks

 

[kingking]

Dang hoosiers how do you find this shit. Thanks man looking forward to jumping on board seeing how it plays out!

 

[skyline69]

Would Detroit have been a play today ?? I see 45% M/L vs. 22% spread ??

 

[SelectiveAscent]

Damn looks sweet, nice catch!

EDIT: does this mean bet the spread, or the moneyline?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Yes, Detroit was a play. I missed that one looking down the card.

I'm showing the Giants as a play tonight. 28% on the spread but 59% on the ML.

SelectiveAscent, it means bet the ML.

I really don't think there's much thought into this so I would actually recommend fading it. It just seems like an odd trend that should come back down to earth rather quickly.

 

[austintx05]

chance. nothing is this easy longterm.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Went 2-1 today with the Rangers and Giants winning and Tigers losing. Should we follow until it shows signs of slowing down?

 

[manchild]

Went 2-1 today with the Rangers and Giants winning and Tigers losing. Should we follow until it shows signs of slowing down?

You might as well..<><>

 

[fadethepublic1]

Any games qualify today?

 

[Sportsrmylife]

I need some more clarification with this since it looks like just about every game on the board qualifies today? More insight needed.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Nevermind explaining it further. I looked through the thread a bit more closely and know what to look for today.

 

[dg84]

i must be stupid because i'm looking at sportsinsights & only see one game that dosen't have a 5% or more difference. what am i missing here?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Games are/were:

Texas (lost)
Arizona
Minnesota
LA Angels
Seattle

 

[take2amphittoright]

Betting fav's

Somehow I believe the best teams will overcome the odds if u bet them consinstantly. To try my theory I am betting the Phil's every day for $1. This is my way of following patterns, and to try and prove that it will work, plus keep my interest on baseball betting. There may be some argument as to who is the best team, take your choice, but something tells me the Phil's have more than the other top teams.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Updated percentages:

Texas: 25% spread 48% ML (LOSS)
Milwaukee: 18% spread 32% ML (WIN)
NY Mets: 30% spread 52% ML
Minnesota: 8% spread 32% ML
Houston: 19% spread 31% ML
Arizona: 8% spread 43% ML
San Diego: 32% spread 40% ML
LA Angels: 57% spread 66% ML
Seattle: 13% spread 42% ML