Found this on his site, thought the baseball guys would enjoy it. It's a good read. I think I'll dabble a bit. I did IC totals last year and he did well, let's see how he does this year:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
For the summer, I cap the American League (totals only) and the WNBA. Part of the process in handicapping baseball in the preseason is to jump on the bandwagon of teams that you believe are undervalued. Given that I follow just the fifteen teams in the AL, my “future” wagers are limited. But, these totals have yielded 57% the last 2 summers, so we roll with them once again this summer - "uxexy" but worth it in my book. For futures this year, this is my future for this upcoming baseball season:
6-Unit Play. Take Over 73.5 Wins for the Texas Rangers for 2009 Season.
I am high on the Rangers this year. If you have tracked the Rangers over the last four years, they have exceeding 73.5 wins each time:
2008: 79 Wins
2007: 75 Wins
2006: 80 Wins
2005: 79 Wins
Is it really out of the realm for this team who has exceeded 73.5 wins the last four years not to exceed it again? I think not. I expect the Rangers as well as their pitching staff to do well this year. This staff is coming around over the past few years headlined by Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison, and Brandon McCarthy with Kason Gabbard being the alternate.
Millwood comes off a nine-win season, his worst since 2001. I expect him to have a bounce back year. He is still a workhorse as he has pitched over 25 games in the last 10 of 11 years. Padilla comes off a strong season going 14-8 with a 4.74 ERA. This is in stark contrast with his 6-10 record with a 5.76 ERA from the year prior. What is most impressive about Vicente is that he improved his road splits from the previous years. Harrison went 9-3 last year and Feldman did a bit worse going 6-8. Bear in mind that Feldman picked up just 14 decisions despite pitching in 25 games. I expect both of these pitchers to pick up at least 10 wins this year. Remember, we don’t need either to be a Cy Young – we just need them to do their part in getting over 73.5 Wins. McCarthy and Gabbard both are great talents and I expect their friendly competition to bring out the best in both of them.
This team boasts a decent bullpen with C.J. Wilson, Frank Francisco, Warner Madrigal, Dustin Nippert and Derrick Turnbow. If that is not enough, this team has three of the most touted pitching prospects coming up from the farm. I can’t tell you how long it has been since the Rangers actually had a decent rotation already penciled in come the regular season. In many ways, this team has had the floor stable for some time as they have steadily rebuilt.
How can you talk about the Texas Rangers without speaking to their potent offense? This team’s offense this year will be flat out awesome. From the likes of Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Hank Blalock, Chris Davis (a young potent hitter who is a fantasy gem and I believe will have a breakout year), David Murphy, speedy Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden/Jarrod Saltalamacchia likely splitting catching duties, this team is stacked from top to bottom with power and speed.
We do not need the Rangers to be involved in the pennant race or to be competitive for their division. All of that would be a bonus. We need this team to win more than 73.5 games this season. Considering this team has only gotten better, the Angels (who are in the AL West as well) will be much less potent this year as their pitching staff is banged up from top to bottom, the Rangers having the most potent offense in the division, and their pitching is more stabilized that it has been in quite some time, I expect the Rangers to post at least 78 wins this year. More importantly, I expect them to cash the Over 73.5 Wins ticket for the 2009-2010 season.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
For the summer, I cap the American League (totals only) and the WNBA. Part of the process in handicapping baseball in the preseason is to jump on the bandwagon of teams that you believe are undervalued. Given that I follow just the fifteen teams in the AL, my “future” wagers are limited. But, these totals have yielded 57% the last 2 summers, so we roll with them once again this summer - "uxexy" but worth it in my book. For futures this year, this is my future for this upcoming baseball season:
6-Unit Play. Take Over 73.5 Wins for the Texas Rangers for 2009 Season.
I am high on the Rangers this year. If you have tracked the Rangers over the last four years, they have exceeding 73.5 wins each time:
2008: 79 Wins
2007: 75 Wins
2006: 80 Wins
2005: 79 Wins
Is it really out of the realm for this team who has exceeded 73.5 wins the last four years not to exceed it again? I think not. I expect the Rangers as well as their pitching staff to do well this year. This staff is coming around over the past few years headlined by Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison, and Brandon McCarthy with Kason Gabbard being the alternate.
Millwood comes off a nine-win season, his worst since 2001. I expect him to have a bounce back year. He is still a workhorse as he has pitched over 25 games in the last 10 of 11 years. Padilla comes off a strong season going 14-8 with a 4.74 ERA. This is in stark contrast with his 6-10 record with a 5.76 ERA from the year prior. What is most impressive about Vicente is that he improved his road splits from the previous years. Harrison went 9-3 last year and Feldman did a bit worse going 6-8. Bear in mind that Feldman picked up just 14 decisions despite pitching in 25 games. I expect both of these pitchers to pick up at least 10 wins this year. Remember, we don’t need either to be a Cy Young – we just need them to do their part in getting over 73.5 Wins. McCarthy and Gabbard both are great talents and I expect their friendly competition to bring out the best in both of them.
This team boasts a decent bullpen with C.J. Wilson, Frank Francisco, Warner Madrigal, Dustin Nippert and Derrick Turnbow. If that is not enough, this team has three of the most touted pitching prospects coming up from the farm. I can’t tell you how long it has been since the Rangers actually had a decent rotation already penciled in come the regular season. In many ways, this team has had the floor stable for some time as they have steadily rebuilt.
How can you talk about the Texas Rangers without speaking to their potent offense? This team’s offense this year will be flat out awesome. From the likes of Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Hank Blalock, Chris Davis (a young potent hitter who is a fantasy gem and I believe will have a breakout year), David Murphy, speedy Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden/Jarrod Saltalamacchia likely splitting catching duties, this team is stacked from top to bottom with power and speed.
We do not need the Rangers to be involved in the pennant race or to be competitive for their division. All of that would be a bonus. We need this team to win more than 73.5 games this season. Considering this team has only gotten better, the Angels (who are in the AL West as well) will be much less potent this year as their pitching staff is banged up from top to bottom, the Rangers having the most potent offense in the division, and their pitching is more stabilized that it has been in quite some time, I expect the Rangers to post at least 78 wins this year. More importantly, I expect them to cash the Over 73.5 Wins ticket for the 2009-2010 season.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
