Ice in the desert (Iceman's life in Las Vegas-December 2008)

[Iceman]

Took some time off from the thread. A lot has happened since last time I posted in here.

2 weeks ago I had the worst day I have had since I had been here. I went into Sunday pretty upset about how things were going and was hoping to salvage a little of a bad weekend. I ended up having a crappy Sunday also. I spend Sunday nights doing all my book work. I was crushed after looking at the results. I had lost almost 70% of my profits in a 2 week span. I tried to look at it positively, I was still up around 8k since I had got here (down from almost 20k two weeks ago). All the numbers really took a tumble and werent looking great anymore, just okay. The one that thru me into a tailspin was the fact I had the same amount of money more or less now as when I first got here. In less then 72 hours I went from basically saving 7k in less then 3 months, which isnt bad and something I was pretty happy with, to nothing on the savings end. Basically breakeven now. I literally got sick to my stomach. Now I could say, what I am I complaining about. I have lived in Vegas, paid my bills, won enough to support a modest lifestyle, and proven to myself i can win thru a whole football season. The thing that sucks was orginally I was suppose to have no bills and work just off my bankroll but things dont always go as planned. Lots of little things have added up and now I have about a 2k a month nut to crack on my own, which is still not bad for an adult male.

Now I know it is all just numbers on a paper but I am serious, it hurt a lot. Just because I had worked so hard to get ahead and I thought to myself that I would never go back to the amount of money I started with. It was heartbreaking for me. I felt a tad snakebit also at the time. I seemed to be losing a lot of close games, etc. Not many breaks seemed to be going my way. I thought okay I will just get hot and win it back. Like it was that easy, LOL.

That Monday I started doing a lot of stuff I dont normally do, nothing bad or drastic but just rookie stuff I dont usually do, scoreboard watching, looking at how much I could win if I won the last 5 games of the night, etc. I proceeded to lose the next 3 days and it really upset me, this took the losing streak to 5 straight days, tieing my longest streak I had ever had in the past 2.5 years. At one point I looked back at my last 250 wagers and I was at 42%, I couldn't do that if I wanted too, LOL. It was bad. I couldnt buy in a win. I went back another 1k the next 3 days. Thanksgiving day I told myself I was only playing a few plays, just too get a win under my belt hopefully and it would only be my best stuff and I finally squeezed out a small win. Friday I came back with a great day. The wekend was a wash and so I ended the month down close to 5k. My worst month ever betting wise. I was once up almost 7k on the month at one time, WOW. Talk about variance. Realize I dont bet much money per game, averging in the $200-300 a play on most plays but a $300 bet is a $630 swing with one gamew win or lose. I did set a record for myself, going over the 200k for the month betting wise. I lost close to 2% for the month.

3 months are in the books for me betting wise. I am up around 9k total now, which isnt great but I will take it. This puts me on pace for around 35k-40k for a year. I hope for more but I am trying to get away from worrying too much about financial goals right now. A fellow professional gambler told me that. He said you should NEVER put that kind of pressure on yourself. He's right I dont need the pressure of that on me quite yet. I need to settle in and get comfortable. Just beating this stuff is hard enough. I ended up lowering my bet size a little also. I had too as I lost a decent fraction of my bankroll, somewhere in the 25% range. The thing is the big plan is too save money from this venture, not just pay the bills.

I also eliminated a lot of the stuff that hasnt been working, like the Pinny lean stuff which has been my bread abd butter in the past. I will get back to it later on but looking at my notes from last year shows me sturggling with 1st half CBB totals and so I just could keep messing (and losing) with it every night. I am only doing stuff that hasn't won for me this year. My best stuff in the past. Slowly i would like to add stuff in like NBA sides but not till later in the year. I have bet over 400k so I am winning right around 2% ROI, which is too be expected. I am pretty happy with that when you like at the big picture.

Something you dont realize when you plan this out on paper is streaks are inevitable. Now matter how well you think you can handle them they are really tough. In fact I handled my first big losing streak, HORRIBILE. I failed. I am upset with myself. I had a lot of doubt creep into my head, that now that I have been winning a little seems just pathetic on my part. I started thinking thoughts that never crossed my mind since I had been here. Like what if I lose? What about my life after this? What about another job? How could i win before and not now? What if what I am doing doesnt work? Like I said stuff I never envisioned just 4 days earlier. It happened so fast. Believe me I have done this stuff for a few years and I have lost plenty of times but it's totally different now. There is just something about not having the paycheck coming in. There are no guarantees anymore and this was the first time I had probably truly realized it. I have to wakr up each day and ear, pull money out the books. The thing that got me the most upset was how hard I was working at this. Every day doing all the little things. I am the one who always talks about the big thing with gambling fulltime is the huge flucuations in your bankroll. You cant let them effect you. I asked a few respected people that do this for a living and how they handle it and that helped but they all said they struggled also with bad losing streaks, they happen and they are just part of the game is what they all told me. I hope I do a lot better next time (which is hopefully a long ways away, LOL).

Anyways this is where I sit right now as we head into December. The 3 biggest months volume wise are upon us for me. Nightly hoops and still a ton of football is left. I know there is some more stuff to talk about that I am forgetting but this is it for right now. I will try and keep this updated every day or every other day or so. Talk to you guys later!!!



(*-I am not sure how to handle the financial information I am sharing in this thread. I have thought about this quite a bit. I enjoy doing this thread and put a lot of time and effort into it. So I want it too be 100% accurate. I have thought about changing some numbers around (not lying but lowering/highering so it is still equaling the same) or using units instead of money details but I want people to understand EXACTLY what i am going thru. Plus that way would end up getting way too complicated and confusing and be too hard to to keep everything straight, etc. Everyone that knows me knows that I am just a normal guy who moved out here to try this. I am not rich or some genius, etc. I have really no special talents/resources going into this. The only thing I think that seperates me from most is my total passion for this, that is probably it and the knowledge I have picked up the past 3 years from forums like the RX. I know I am small time out here in Vegas. I see that everyday. I am totally fine with that. I have had at least 15 posters tell me how they wished they could be doing this and how they are sort of living this whole venture thru me. So I just want to be 100% honest with everything i am reporting so they (and everyone) can get a complete understadning what I am going thru. I know if I was on the other side of this back in Mihcigan still, I would appreciate it if the guy in Vegas was giving as much details as he possibily could. Hopefully none of this stuff I write offends anyone (thankfully no one so far has said it does) or anyone thinks that I am bragging, etc. Nothing could be further from the truth. Okay, sorry about that but I just wanted to get that off my chest.

 

[TheRightSide]

Ice keep your head up.

WOW I thought the woman was covering living expenses??????? 2000 a month isn't the end of the world but does add more pressure.

Ice will this be your 1st Christmass without snow? I'll send ya some nice Swartz Creek snow if you want.
LOL

 

[Iceman]

Ice keep your head up.

WOW I thought the woman was covering living expenses??????? 2000 a month isn't the end of the world but does add more pressure.

Ice will this be your 1st Christmass without snow? I'll send ya some nice Swartz Creek snow if you want.
LOL

I probably need to rephrase this. I am not complaing about any bills. I have it better the good. The setup was for GF to pay the bills and me to take are bankroll and build it and then leave town one day with quite a bit more money, etc. Starting a new life with children, etc. Me against the books and that was all that money was too be used for.

I am paying off a loan of 1k that is mine from previously so I said I felt i should pay that. Originally I was going to drive my old vehicle but we decided to get rid of that and I got a $400 a month car payment, I said I would pay that I mean I couldnt expect her to cover that also, plus I wanted a newer ride. throw in my cell phone with laptop and the fact I throw $100 here and there for other sutff a few times a month. Well it adds up to around 2k. Not really keeping 100% track of this. Rough estimate.

I am more than grateful We are a team. She is paying all the regular bills, house, vehicle (hers), cable, electricity, water, food. Once again nothing is ever as good as it seems it will be on paper. hell the rent is $1500 a month and i dont pay a dime of it. But like I said the money is really all the same. Obviously if she is short one month I help but it all comes and goes from the same accounts. Shit happens with dogs, broken stuff, etc. Bottom line everything added togther is probably 2k more then we budgeted for. Isnt it always that way? LOL

 

[Iceman]

As for the snow. HELL NO!!!

I thought I had liked this weather the past few months. I LOVE IT NOW. My mom said they got snow and had no school, etc yesterday in Michigan. I dont miss it at all. Sure doesnt feel like Christmas though but I dont care to tell you the truth. This is picture postcard weather here. Some of the most beautiful days I have ever seen in my life. 70 degrees, sunny, no wind, no clouds, zero humidity, never rains. I could go on and on but i think you get the point, LOL.

 

[JohnnyB]

Ice, how come you no longer bet CBB total steam? They are killing it again this year. I have obviously missed A LOT of them, but of the ones I have been able to grab have been phenomenal (almost 70%). Now of course I know this winrate won't be sustained throughout the entire year, but still I really feel like you're missing out by not betting these.

Just keep grinding it out. Of course you already know that. Thanks again for all the help.

rookie stuff I dont usually do, scoreboard watching

Haha, I've still never been able to break this habit...

 

[TheRightSide]

Ice I still have no snow on the ground. It has all been farther north from me. Yeah I remember being out there this time of year. Maybe if the wife and I have jobs next year we will get out there. I need to go on a poker bender that I do know. LOL I have not played in like 2 months.

 

[Iceman]

Ice, how come you no longer bet CBB total steam? They are killing it again this year. I have obviously missed A LOT of them, but of the ones I have been able to grab have been phenomenal (almost 70%). Now of course I know this winrate won't be sustained throughout the entire year, but still I really feel like you're missing out by not betting these.

Just keep grinding it out. Of course you already know that. Thanks again for all the help.





Haha, I've still never been able to break this habit...

I still bet some steam except I know where it is usually coming from first. I do follow guys who creat steam so I guess that counts. I never said steam in my 1st post in this thread. I said pinny lean and to me that is entirely different.

When I mean Pinny lean stuff I lean stuff that is just sitting there a half point or so off,enough to grab like 1st half stuff, none of that right now. I just dont think the market is tight enough right now with that stuff. I am all for steam though this time of year but it is getting almost impossibile to beat it nowadys unless you play at that one place and I rarley do anymore. Plus not sure playing it is worth longterm with books tolerance levels low with some of this.

 

[JohnnyB]

I still bet some steam except I know where it is usually coming from first. I do follow guys who creat steam so I guess that counts. I never said steam in my 1st post in this thread. I said pinny lean and to me that is entirely different.

When I mean Pinny lean stuff I lean stuff that is just sitting there a half point or so off,enough to grab like 1st half stuff, none of that right now. I just dont think the market is tight enough right now with that stuff. I am all for steam though this time of year but it is getting almost impossibile to beat it nowadys unless you play at that one place and I rarley do anymore. Plus not sure playing it is worth longterm with books tolerance levels low with some of this.

Yeah, I know you were talking more Pinny lean than steam in your post but I remember you telling me via PM that the days of steam were pretty much over for you.

Only play maybe 40% of these at "that one place" anymore as they are much faster now than before and they usually only hang totals an hour or so before gametime, they don't put them all up right away like your A+ books do. So if a 9:00 EST game moves at 5:30 EST I have to bet it somewhere else by necessity anyways. Still a few places to play these. Maybe this will be the last year it's possible, who knows.

 

[steaktartar]

ICE..........it is the same as if you were in michigan......just different weather.........95% of your action is still online i assume.....just keep betting numbers at their peak.....whether the move side or the take back side........and play your opinion on games you like that dont have much movement(smaller).....but remember vegas first and foremost gives you access to parlay cards with stale numbers(great for hedges and scalps)....play some small poker tourneys if you have the time........mostly for relaxation....if you do well great.......basically do your thing but in better weather...thats all it is.......dont worry........my best track is winter(current meet + inner meet coming up) AQU........ive lost 30k the last 3 1/2 weeks.......just dont panic.......it ALWAYS comes back to the norm

 

[Timetopay]

way to much for me to read Ice but glad you are still alive

keep up the good work

 

[Iceman]

ICE..........it is the same as if you were in michigan......just different weather.........95% of your action is still online i assume.....just keep betting numbers at their peak.....whether the move side or the take back side........and play your opinion on games you like that dont have much movement(smaller).....but remember vegas first and foremost gives you access to parlay cards with stale numbers(great for hedges and scalps)....play some small poker tourneys if you have the time........mostly for relaxation....if you do well great.......basically do your thing but in better weather...thats all it is.......dont worry........my best track is winter(current meet + inner meet coming up) AQU........ive lost 30k the last 3 1/2 weeks.......just dont panic.......it ALWAYS comes back to the norm

I wouldnt say 95% of plays are offshore but that is only cause I force myself to go downtown. I am still feeling out hoops and Vegas betting wise. I just ordered my Verizon Storm and should have it soon and I will be heading to the books after the 1st games start to try and find some off numbers, who knows if it will be worth it.

For football season here are the things I love about betting in Vegas:

I found the contests in town were good, probably more fun then anything but if and when (LOL) I win one of these it will all be worth it one day, until tehn what a pain in the ass these can be.

I made some solid money on the look ahead lines that a few books in town offer and no offshore has these, I am 17-11 which is 60% so far with these. Though risky I have a really good feel for them. Week in and week out you should see the numbers I am pulling, last night i had Houston -2 for example, hard to lose when you have bets like that going for you. Going to really exploit these next year.

I think in the morning you can take advantage of NBA totals downtown, they are sleeping at a few places. You really do need a partner to take advantage of a few things with hoops, esp. May look into something like that also. Still dont know how the books downtown handle playing CBB steam on totals. Will have to look later.

The futures market for football in Vegas is a goldmine I hear and something I will try and beat next summer but I need a bigger bankroll and hopefully I will by then. If you want to log the miles and put in the time and wait it out you can get some great prices with these.

Overall I think the thing I didnt exploit (actually lost 2k doing these but the variance is very very high) is the parlay cards. You hit the nail on the head. Next fall, with a partner I think I have a fail proof system to hit these fairly hard but you have to be careful and not abuse them and get booted. May look tomorrow into messing with them during hoops season. I am going to look tomorrow at them and see what is on them. The books are pratically begging you to play these.

One other big thing about Vegas is the moving of money is so much easier, I could go on and on about how and why but I am not just talking the casinos either. So many ways to get bets down and money in your hands very quickly around here. It's a bettors paradise in so many ways. it's the big leagues of gambling (thanks fishhead, I like that).

Also if you want to bet huge (I dont) then the place is here. I mean are you seriously going to send 100k offshore and sleep at night in this climate? Better to do it here but like I said that isnt a concern of mine right now but it is another reason vegas trumps the offshor world.

With all that said I still would rather play offshore if faced with choice. I have said this before. No regrets about being here for the obvious reasons and dont plan on leaving for awhile.

After things slow down this hoops season I am going to tackle a new project and I assume it will be poker. I figure if I am going to be in Vegas i may as well try and take advantage of it. I am hoping someone will mentor me. I am looking for a poker coach. I know I would be a top notch student, so if any vegas poker pros are reading this, please PM me, LOL (but I am serious). This is how I learn best from instruction from others. I have a goal list of about 15 things I really want too do while I am here in Las Vegas and now I have the time and some of the resources and playing poker semi serious is one of them, we shall see.

Thanks ST-great post and I know if you have an edge you have an edge. I am doing this CBB project and i am nailing the line movement and betting at peak numbers and I am so excited about this but I have went 3-8 with this so far and I am so frustrated but I know in the longrun this should win.

 

[Iceman]

way to much for me to read Ice but glad you are still alive

keep up the good work

Thanks. Sorry just had a lot of catching up too do.

Happy to see you back buddy!!

 

[steaktartar]

You hit the nail on the head. Next fall, with a partner I think I have a fail proof system to hit these fairly good but you have to be careful and not abuse them and get booted

yes thats the key......as you know under the radar.....good luck(but you dont need it)....just stay the course

 

[sparticus]

I really enjoy all this as i am too old to try what you are doing so i really enjoy all this conversation from Iceman & the others also, thanks & gl Iceman.

 

[Iceman]

I really enjoy all this as i am too old to try what you are doing so i really enjoy all this conversation from Iceman & the others also, thanks & gl Iceman.

Thanks Sparticus. This poster name doesnt have anything to do with Michigan st does it? If so I may have too think twice about associatiing with you, LOL.

 

[bigbet1234]

less typing more capping:nohead:


Damn man, I need to set aside 45-60 mins a night to just read your books!

 

[sparticus]

How about the Buckeyes, you just got silent as you are the team up north, lol, also the steelers,gl Ice.

 

[sparticus]

Ice but a Detroit Tiger fan.lol.

 

[Iceman]

Will be brief as I have some time this mornig. Seems like this thread is losing steam lately.

Had a great weekend and very happy this morning. Have now won back over 4k of the $6,500 I lost over a rough stretch. Really rolling with CBB on totals with a model I built. I really beleive totals in CBB can be exploited if you know when where and how to bet. Bookmakers have admited they cant keep up with this. In NBA I an doing the same thing with a totals model and have went 55-39 with it, this has me very excitied. It's a lot of work but i enojoy it so it doesnt feel like work to me.

Had another solid week with NFL sides. Really have had a great year with it. Not that this is impressive or anything but I am now 37-31 at the Hilton contest (54% after a slow start). Probably too little too late but still doing okay at it. I finished around 5th in another contest (my life story they pay top 3) with around 50 people in it. Leroy's is hosting a weekly NFL contest where you get 5 enteries and under each entry you make one play against the spread a week. I think we have went thru 6 weeks of this contest, (they started in the middle of the season) and I stil have 3 ballots alive. Once you lose 3 games (contest called 3 and out) under one ballot you are out. I have one ballot with no losses. You pick one game a week. Last man standing wins the whole prize. I think there are around 10 players (260 or so in contest) who have a perfect ballot so far and I have one of them. These contests are a blast in vegas, cant tell you how much fun they add to betting each week. Next year I will be better equipped and more knowledgeable with these and will do somethings a little different but overall I have done fairly well and had a lot of fun with them so far.

With 2 sports going strong daily for me, I swear I am woring way harder at this then I thougth I would. I think a lot of people thought you make you bets and that is it for the day. I get up every moring 7am (pst) and do this off and on all day till midnight or so. You feel so backed up being 3 hors behind here every morning so no sleeping in for me, esp on weekend where games start at 9am and lines are moving fractically at 8am. I do my own numbers everyday and it helps me clear my mind and I go from there. This past saturday was pretty hectic for me with a lot of action going on. Still dont have a rhythm yet with it but thought i did pretty good and was really well orgainized and that helped a lot.

I knew this was going to be a very busy time but so far I feel like I have handled it well. Averaging around 30 plays a day the past month but somedays I have 60 plays and other days I have 10. I havent added halftimes into the mix yet (and may never) but if that happens this will really get nuts. Like feeling like I am occupied all day so this isnt a bad thing. I think this is the main reason I have enjoyed this whole thing more than probably most. I actually like stats, numbers, capping, recordkeeping, espcially the recordkeeping which can be monotous and time consuming but I love it and feel it is very important to my success, knowing what and how and you are doing in a lot of stuff. I knew all this even before I moved to vegas. Probably a little weird but this stuff really makes my heartbeat. I know a lot of people that also do this for a living and they also say they also feel this way about this part of the job. I think you have to enjoy it if you are your own boss or you most likely wont stay on it and then you wont end up doing it.

 

[Barney44]

Always Good to hear

I look forward to your updates. I will be traveling to your fine city for AFC/NFC Championsip weekend on an offer from Caesars that was too good to pass up. Keep up the fine work.

Will be brief as I have some time this mornig. Seems like this thread is losing steam lately.

Had a great weekend and very happy this morning. Have now won back over 4k of the $6,500 I lost over a rough stretch. Really rolling with CBB on totals with a model I built. I really beleive totals in CBB can be exploited if you know when where and how to bet. Bookmakers have admited they cant keep up with this. In NBA I an doing the same thing with a totals model and have went 55-39 with it, this has me very excitied. It's a lot of work but i enojoy it so it doesnt feel like work to me.

Had another solid week with NFL sides. Really have had a great year with it. Not that this is impressive or anything but I am now 37-31 at the Hilton contest (54% after a slow start). Probably too little too late but still doing okay at it. I finished around 5th in another contest (my life story they pay top 3) with around 50 people in it. Leroy's is hosting a weekly NFL contest where you get 5 enteries and under each entry you make one play against the spread a week. I think we have went thru 6 weeks of this contest, (they started in the middle of the season) and I stil have 3 ballots alive. Once you lose 3 games (contest called 3 and out) under one ballot you are out. I have one ballot with no losses. You pick one game a week. Last man standing wins the whole prize. I think there are around 10 players (260 or so in contest) who have a perfect ballot so far and I have one of them. These contests are a blast in vegas, cant tell you how much fun they add to betting each week. Next year I will be better equipped and more knowledgeable with these and will do somethings a little different but overall I have done fairly well and had a lot of fun with them so far.

With 2 sports going strong daily for me, I swear I am woring way harder at this then I thougth I would. I think a lot of people thought you make you bets and that is it for the day. I get up every moring 7am (pst) and do this off and on all day till midnight or so. You feel so backed up being 3 hors behind here every morning so no sleeping in for me, esp on weekend where games start at 9am and lines are moving fractically at 8am. I do my own numbers everyday and it helps me clear my mind and I go from there. This past saturday was pretty hectic for me with a lot of action going on. Still dont have a rhythm yet with it but thought i did pretty good and was really well orgainized and that helped a lot.

I knew this was going to be a very busy time but so far I feel like I have handled it well. Averaging around 30 plays a day the past month but somedays I have 60 plays and other days I have 10. I havent added halftimes into the mix yet (and may never) but if that happens this will really get nuts. Like feeling like I am occupied all day so this isnt a bad thing. I think this is the main reason I have enjoyed this whole thing more than probably most. I actually like stats, numbers, capping, recordkeeping, espcially the recordkeeping which can be monotous and time consuming but I love it and feel it is very important to my success, knowing what and how and you are doing in a lot of stuff. I knew all this even before I moved to vegas. Probably a little weird but this stuff really makes my heartbeat. I know a lot of people that also do this for a living and they also say they also feel this way about this part of the job. I think you have to enjoy it if you are your own boss or you most likely wont stay on it and then you wont end up doing it.