Next week is going to be the only time for the next 35 days that the Steelers are not listed as double digit favorites, and potentially underdogs. I just can’t see Pittsburgh running this score up high enough to stay clear of the Colts. Hanging 24 and 28 on the scoreboard is a tough task for this Steelers team regardless of the competition. Last years regular season with a very similar team the Steelers only got to the four touchdown mark twice, at home to Oakland and in Week 17 against Cleveland. Tonight in Primetime (where they have an extremely poor ATS history) in the dome against the Colts, I do not see this team getting higher then 24 points. I fully feel that they have to get at least 28 to have a shot at covering this game.
Indianapolis on the other hand, does not have to be in this game start to finish to get the cover. In fact, they can be getting completely tossed around and still have a very good shot at the cover. I feel the magic number for the Colts is 14. Once the Colts reach or exceed two touchdowns, the cover is in sure hands. Indianapolis was set up for a BEATING in week one. Houston had been waiting to win that game for three years and the entire team, city and franchise was crushed with the loss of their leader Peyton Manning. To me that week was a completely downer and I take little stock into the result. Last week the Colts showed progress of moving forward. What we have to remember and I think so many people forget is that this is still the same Colts team. They may be without Manning but the surrounding cast is still the same. This is still a middle of the line scoring defense that is able to keep teams from hanging huge numbers on the board. This is a team with an extremely strong pass rush. Nothing has changed on defense. We have seen the way this defensive unit can perform. I think that this unit is more then capable of holding their team in the game tonight. Offensively this unit is still stacked up with weapons. Now I admit that they looked terrible in week one, and below average in week two. As time went on in both of those games, they got better and better and better. The reason for this is simple. Kerry Collins. Remember, he came out of retirement in week one. He was rusty as could be with only 13 days of practice under his belt before kick off. He showed signs in the latter stages of last weeks game against Cleveland of his usual self. He led a Tennessee team to their best season in franchise history just a few years ago. Collins is very capable of commanding this offense. After an 0-2 start all expectations are off of his shoulders. There is no longer pressure for him to perform. The Colts are done, finished. No one is expecting anything from him or the team. From listening and watching press conferences all week, leaders on either side of the ball showed promise and were saying all the right things to believe me that these guys are still focused and in this. I am fully convinced that tonight in Primetime at home the Colts come out against Pittsburgh and put up 17-21 points. Their team total is listed at a flat 14. I think this is too low. I think that we are all going to see a couple new formations from the Colts to shake things up. They need a spark to get this offense burning, and I would look no further then 87 on the side line or reliable Dallas Clark to get this thing moving. I look for Wayne and Clark to have very strong performances tonight. Assuming that Pittsburgh gets to their magic number of 24 tonight, Indianapolis needs 14 to get the cover. There is a good chance that Indianapolis is going to be playing from behind late in the game. This sets up extremely well for the backdoor which I will have in my pocket all game long. For Pittsburgh to be clear of the back door, they need at least an 18 point lead to avoid it. This game is going to have to be extremely out of hand and far off my predictions to get there.
I have this game playing out like this. Indianapolis strikes first. Someway or another the Colts are going to find a way to have an early lead of seven. Pittsburgh is going to answer and lean on the Colts going into the half. Give me 14-10 Pittsburgh at halftime. In the second half Pittsburgh will score early and put this into a 21-10 type of game going into the fourth. Indianapolis is going to get a stop and force a field goal early in the quarter, 24-10 Pittsburgh. Indianapolis will get across their number of 14 with a td and make it a seven point game with a couple minutes left. Pittsburgh will run clock as usual and end up punting back to Indianapolis late in the quarter leaving the Colts with a drive to tie. This is going to be one of those games that we see all to many where it flirts around the number for a majority of the second half and ends up quickly going to the underdog. There are so many people on the Steelers and there are going to be so many people with losing tickets tonight after feeling good about their bet all night. I may be the first to say it, but there may be a number of Steelers moneyline backers out there claiming a bad beat as well.
Indianapolis Colts +10.5
Small play on Indianapolis +430 ML
Indianapolis on the other hand, does not have to be in this game start to finish to get the cover. In fact, they can be getting completely tossed around and still have a very good shot at the cover. I feel the magic number for the Colts is 14. Once the Colts reach or exceed two touchdowns, the cover is in sure hands. Indianapolis was set up for a BEATING in week one. Houston had been waiting to win that game for three years and the entire team, city and franchise was crushed with the loss of their leader Peyton Manning. To me that week was a completely downer and I take little stock into the result. Last week the Colts showed progress of moving forward. What we have to remember and I think so many people forget is that this is still the same Colts team. They may be without Manning but the surrounding cast is still the same. This is still a middle of the line scoring defense that is able to keep teams from hanging huge numbers on the board. This is a team with an extremely strong pass rush. Nothing has changed on defense. We have seen the way this defensive unit can perform. I think that this unit is more then capable of holding their team in the game tonight. Offensively this unit is still stacked up with weapons. Now I admit that they looked terrible in week one, and below average in week two. As time went on in both of those games, they got better and better and better. The reason for this is simple. Kerry Collins. Remember, he came out of retirement in week one. He was rusty as could be with only 13 days of practice under his belt before kick off. He showed signs in the latter stages of last weeks game against Cleveland of his usual self. He led a Tennessee team to their best season in franchise history just a few years ago. Collins is very capable of commanding this offense. After an 0-2 start all expectations are off of his shoulders. There is no longer pressure for him to perform. The Colts are done, finished. No one is expecting anything from him or the team. From listening and watching press conferences all week, leaders on either side of the ball showed promise and were saying all the right things to believe me that these guys are still focused and in this. I am fully convinced that tonight in Primetime at home the Colts come out against Pittsburgh and put up 17-21 points. Their team total is listed at a flat 14. I think this is too low. I think that we are all going to see a couple new formations from the Colts to shake things up. They need a spark to get this offense burning, and I would look no further then 87 on the side line or reliable Dallas Clark to get this thing moving. I look for Wayne and Clark to have very strong performances tonight. Assuming that Pittsburgh gets to their magic number of 24 tonight, Indianapolis needs 14 to get the cover. There is a good chance that Indianapolis is going to be playing from behind late in the game. This sets up extremely well for the backdoor which I will have in my pocket all game long. For Pittsburgh to be clear of the back door, they need at least an 18 point lead to avoid it. This game is going to have to be extremely out of hand and far off my predictions to get there.
I have this game playing out like this. Indianapolis strikes first. Someway or another the Colts are going to find a way to have an early lead of seven. Pittsburgh is going to answer and lean on the Colts going into the half. Give me 14-10 Pittsburgh at halftime. In the second half Pittsburgh will score early and put this into a 21-10 type of game going into the fourth. Indianapolis is going to get a stop and force a field goal early in the quarter, 24-10 Pittsburgh. Indianapolis will get across their number of 14 with a td and make it a seven point game with a couple minutes left. Pittsburgh will run clock as usual and end up punting back to Indianapolis late in the quarter leaving the Colts with a drive to tie. This is going to be one of those games that we see all to many where it flirts around the number for a majority of the second half and ends up quickly going to the underdog. There are so many people on the Steelers and there are going to be so many people with losing tickets tonight after feeling good about their bet all night. I may be the first to say it, but there may be a number of Steelers moneyline backers out there claiming a bad beat as well.
Indianapolis Colts +10.5
Small play on Indianapolis +430 ML
