I have been (since election night) thinking more and more and more about the concept of a line at a book not being reflective of the true probabilities of an event but only posted to "even out the action". IVe wagered for 20 years and never even considered this to be a factor in making a selection on an event.
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Lets go back to election night. When Kerry exit polls came out early in the day many $$$ rushed to buy Kerry and bring him down from +200 to +160, +140, +120, even -120, -140,,,,,,later in the afternoon after things calmed down the Kerry line went as high as -300 with Bush at +250. <o></o>
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At that point JJ Gold made a simple comment but an important one and one that Ive been pondering now for a couple weeks. Just not something Ive ever considered.<o></o>
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Bucks the thing is no sportsbook knows more than major media outlets
It is a complete crapshoot who will win and please do not be fooled by boooks odds!!
They are only balancing books!!!<o></o>
<o></o>
You see books have massive kerry action so the best thing to do is make him such a false favorite and jack up lines so money moves back to Bush to balance books
Boys I am a professional and spot stuff like this
Bush should be right now -107
You would have to play Bush now at +240<o></o>
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What is this concept of balancing the books? How do the books do it? What triggers an event for them to try this type of action? I had always thought that the line on a game or money line was set based on future anticipated action. Like a true market. If a money line was -150 +140 that was because the books were pretty sure that would be the correct ratio $$$ coming in the future would be $3 on the fav, to approx $2 on the dog. If they get the correct ratio on both sides they lock in a profit no matter what. If they find they are off a bit they go to -160 +150, if still off a bit they go to -170 +160 or back down.<o></o>
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In other words the lines you see moving at Pinny for example are done as they are predicating future action of their $$$ from the clients. Like a true market or a stock price for example.<o></o>
<o></o>
Now this new piece of information to ponder. Books trying to balance some of their action and thus intentionally setting a line not near the ratio of the $$$ coming in on both sides and not near the probability of the expected outcome. that second point sounds like a money making opportunity to me!!!! thats why IVe been thinking about this so much since election night.
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Setting up an artificially high number for a short period of time so a person really cant play one side, and if they do they get the worst of it in the long term. HE has to either pass or play the other side. Playing the other side helps the book balance some of their action.<o></o>
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How often does this happen? <o></o>
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My thought is of course as a player, if you only play a line were the book is trying to balance action and play that side you will get much the best of it in the long run as those are OVERLAY situations.<o></o>
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See what I mean?<o></o>
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Now Ive been watching Pinny NBA totals this week. NBA totals are the most volatile lines I know of as they can move quickly and in big chunks. If a total was opened at Pinny say 182 -105 either way and then at some point the line moves say 3 points on some steam play or syndicate or some news whatever the case now its 185 -105 either way, boom, it changes at Pinny at the Greek and soon everywhere, then at Pinny you will often see 185 over -106, then 185 over -108, then 185 over -110, then 185 over -112, then 185 over -114. I often think that is the people just behind the steam playing the steam, they missed the big move but think its still a solid play so they hit it hard. then at Pinny there is often a lull no more movement then it will spike again it will will go to 185 over -120, then 185 over -122 (now the payback is +112). Is this Spike a balance the book situation? IF so then playing the +112 is a major overlay. Does Pinny actually think the ratio of future $$$ on this line are in the --122 +112 range or are they just trying to get some buy back?? Trying to get some balance at the attractive +112? knowing someone will bite, if they dont then its --124 +114 or 185 over -126 +116 eventually they get some buy back, but the line is not moving up due to more play on the favorite. Does that happen?? Eventually Ive seen this happen and the close line back down to -108 or something.<o></o>
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Is there a way to watch and wager only on situations where the books are setting a number to balance some of their books?<o></o>
<o></o>
what is the true story on this balance the books and how often does it happen and how do you recognize it?<o></o>
<o></o>
Thanks Im ready to learn something here.
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<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Lets go back to election night. When Kerry exit polls came out early in the day many $$$ rushed to buy Kerry and bring him down from +200 to +160, +140, +120, even -120, -140,,,,,,later in the afternoon after things calmed down the Kerry line went as high as -300 with Bush at +250. <o
></o><o
></o>At that point JJ Gold made a simple comment but an important one and one that Ive been pondering now for a couple weeks. Just not something Ive ever considered.<o
></o><o
></o>Bucks the thing is no sportsbook knows more than major media outlets
It is a complete crapshoot who will win and please do not be fooled by boooks odds!!
They are only balancing books!!!<o
></o><o
></o>You see books have massive kerry action so the best thing to do is make him such a false favorite and jack up lines so money moves back to Bush to balance books
Boys I am a professional and spot stuff like this
Bush should be right now -107
You would have to play Bush now at +240<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>What is this concept of balancing the books? How do the books do it? What triggers an event for them to try this type of action? I had always thought that the line on a game or money line was set based on future anticipated action. Like a true market. If a money line was -150 +140 that was because the books were pretty sure that would be the correct ratio $$$ coming in the future would be $3 on the fav, to approx $2 on the dog. If they get the correct ratio on both sides they lock in a profit no matter what. If they find they are off a bit they go to -160 +150, if still off a bit they go to -170 +160 or back down.<o
></o><o
></o>In other words the lines you see moving at Pinny for example are done as they are predicating future action of their $$$ from the clients. Like a true market or a stock price for example.<o
></o><o
></o>Now this new piece of information to ponder. Books trying to balance some of their action and thus intentionally setting a line not near the ratio of the $$$ coming in on both sides and not near the probability of the expected outcome. that second point sounds like a money making opportunity to me!!!! thats why IVe been thinking about this so much since election night.
<o
></o>Setting up an artificially high number for a short period of time so a person really cant play one side, and if they do they get the worst of it in the long term. HE has to either pass or play the other side. Playing the other side helps the book balance some of their action.<o
></o><o
></o>How often does this happen? <o
></o><o
></o>My thought is of course as a player, if you only play a line were the book is trying to balance action and play that side you will get much the best of it in the long run as those are OVERLAY situations.<o
></o><o
></o>See what I mean?<o
></o><o
></o>Now Ive been watching Pinny NBA totals this week. NBA totals are the most volatile lines I know of as they can move quickly and in big chunks. If a total was opened at Pinny say 182 -105 either way and then at some point the line moves say 3 points on some steam play or syndicate or some news whatever the case now its 185 -105 either way, boom, it changes at Pinny at the Greek and soon everywhere, then at Pinny you will often see 185 over -106, then 185 over -108, then 185 over -110, then 185 over -112, then 185 over -114. I often think that is the people just behind the steam playing the steam, they missed the big move but think its still a solid play so they hit it hard. then at Pinny there is often a lull no more movement then it will spike again it will will go to 185 over -120, then 185 over -122 (now the payback is +112). Is this Spike a balance the book situation? IF so then playing the +112 is a major overlay. Does Pinny actually think the ratio of future $$$ on this line are in the --122 +112 range or are they just trying to get some buy back?? Trying to get some balance at the attractive +112? knowing someone will bite, if they dont then its --124 +114 or 185 over -126 +116 eventually they get some buy back, but the line is not moving up due to more play on the favorite. Does that happen?? Eventually Ive seen this happen and the close line back down to -108 or something.<o
></o><o
></o>Is there a way to watch and wager only on situations where the books are setting a number to balance some of their books?<o
></o><o
></o>what is the true story on this balance the books and how often does it happen and how do you recognize it?<o
></o><o
></o>Thanks Im ready to learn something here.
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