I may have struck gold with this 1st half/2nd half trend

[Joe Hype]

wow, guys, so i noticed when a team wins the first half of an nfl game, they seem to win or tie in the 2nd half a lot. this went 12-3 in week 17, so i got curious and added up the record of this trend for the whole 2008 nfl season. took me an hour or so. below is the breakdown of each week with this trend. i am shocked at how solid it has done.

<meta http-equiv="CONTENT-TYPE" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><title></title><meta name="GENERATOR" content="OpenOffice.org 2.4 (Win32)"><style type="text/css"> <!-- @page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } --> </style> Teams who won first half, and then won or tied 2^nd half


2008 nfl season


week 17: 12-3
week 16: 8-6
week 15: 7-9
week 14: 11-4
week 13: 10-5
week 12: 13-2
week 11: 4-12
week 10: 6-7
week 9: 9-5
week 8: 7-6
week 7: 9-3
week 6: 8-4
week 5: 6-7
week 4: 4-8
week 3: 10-5
week 2: 7-8
week 1: 12-1


143-95=60%


11 out of 17 weeks were winning weeks, and those winning weeks totaled an amazing record of 109-51, which is an incredible 68%! i'd like to add that week 1 and week 17 were the biggest weeks, which makes sense because teams are pumped up big time for week 1 of the season and want to hold leads, and the same with week 17 fighting for a playoff spot, wanting to hold the lead, and being successful at it. and im sure this will be huge in the playoffs, starting next week, as the winning teams seem to have half time leads and since it is playoffs, they will do anything to hold that lead. just thought id share this eye popping trend with halves. use this to bet on 2nd halves in nfl

 

[artiesliver]

Too bad it's the end of the season. Something tells me this may not necessarily apply to the playoffs. Either way, BoL.

 

[Ramonskee]

nicely done.
it'd be awesome if someone with the proper resources can look up this stat for the playoffs and for the last 5+ seasons.

 

[Joe Hype]

nicely done.
it'd be awesome if someone with the proper resources can look up this stat for the playoffs and for the last 5+ seasons.

yeah dude, i probably will do that eventually. too tired right now, its grueling work. i'll check it out and get back to you guys though. this could be huge

 

[elk102873]

Is this trend against the spread or straight up? Probably straight up correct?

 

[Joe Hype]

.

 

[Joe Hype]

.

 

[Joe Hype]

Is this trend against the spread or straight up? Probably straight up correct?

it's exactly what i said it was. so, yes, straight up, but this shows that if a team is winning at half by a decent amount, we'll say about 10 or more, then almost always they will get plus points for the 2nd half. so that means, with this system, you should take the plus points. usually when a team is down double digits at half, vegas is going to put out a line that favors the team losing, so if the 49ers are down 14 at half, odds are they will be -2 or say -3, just saying they will be favored for 2nd half. like the cowboys today, down 27-3 at half, they were -3 for 2nd half, and eagles killed them in the 2nd half, 17-3. so what im saying, is you take the plus points for 2nd half, of a team that is winning at half time, preferrably by at least 8 points or so

 

[Joe Hype]

ok guys, i just added up the records for each week from 2007 nfl season.

2007 nfl season

week 1: 8-5
week 2: 8-8
week 3: 7-7
week 4: 8-5
week 5: 5-7
week 6: 7-5
week 7: 4-10
week 8: 4-7
week 9: 6-8
week 10: 5-7
week 11: 6-7
week 12: 10-5
week 13: 8-6
week 14: 9-7
week 15: 11-4
week 16: 10-6
week 17: 11-4

127-108=54%


so, for the past 2 years this system is 57% success rate

 

[artiesliver]

Often the halftime line is +/- more juice than normal (+/- 115 or more), so I wonder what the net result is +/- the spread is.

 

[NumberFreak]

Have you calculated the average 2H price? Too many variables to know exactly if you'll make any money. Your stats are for every team, not just 2H dogs or teams up by at least 8. Probably won't make you much money but I wish you luck.

 

[GFE]

Curious to know what it would be ats... maybe when I am bored tomorrow at work..

 

[billbeater]

you found the gold, but we have no shovel left to get it out hno:

 

[OccamsRazor]

Nice preliminary work. Half time ATS adjustments to the first half SU score probably renders this 50/50 or maybe not. Need ATS 2nd half record of your data.

 

[Joe Hype]

Nice preliminary work. Half time ATS adjustments to the first half SU score probably renders this 50/50 or maybe not. Need ATS 2nd half record of your data.

ya but you WOULD take the spread for the underdog for 2nd half. so this actually is ATS system. im not talking moneylines. it is for teams who are winning at half time, and are an underdog in the 2nd half. that is what this system would be for

 

[JakeT.]

Nice work on the research. I'll help ya go back a few years if you'd like some assistance.

 

[BlindDate]

Joe, nice work..These are the jewels that we are looking for

LEtsgohoosiers...found somehting similiar in CFB ....he found where one team has a total yards favor of 75 + - 200 yards had a very high percentage of winning and if that team was the dog going into the 2H ...it was a bigger winner.

I bet something similiar could be used....I am thinking: Total yards, Total time and maybe look at turnovers.

Thanks for sharing what you found out so far.

BD

 

[Joe Hype]

i will look at more previous seasons. i posted 2 so far. going to post the last 5 years. i'll get to it soon, its grueling work, i need some energy, just got done playing football, lol

 

[Joe Hype]

k guys i added up the records for the past 5 years for the playoffs only

not so good, so i believe this system will be made for regular season only

2007 Playoffs
4-5


2006 Playoffs
5-6

2005 Playoffs
6-5

2004 Playoffs
5-3

2003 Playoffs
4-7