I know it's early, but line moves vs consensus early discussion

rscl31 · Oct 14, 2003

Ok there looks to be one for Thursday night if things stand pat

New Mexico state opened at -9.5 (at pinnacle)
it has been bet down to -7.5. However 60% are on New Mexico. The play looks like UL Lafeyette

Now for Saturday

North Texas opened up at -15 has been bet down to -14 (65% on North Texas)
Play on Utah State

TCU opened up at -11, has been bet down to -10.5 (64% on TCU)
Play on UAB

Miami opened up at -31.5, has been bet down to 30. (62% on Miami)
Play on Temple

LSU opened at -5, has been bet down to -4 (70%) on LSU
Play is S. Carolina

Boise St opened at -24, has been bet down to -23.5. (65% on Boise St)
Play is SMU

Marashall opened at 30.5 has been bet down to -29. (63% on Marshall)
Play Buffalo

Nevada opened at 2 has been bet down to -1 and seems to be dropping still. (63% on Nevada)
Play Tulsa

USC opened up at -9 has been bet down to -8. (61% on USC)
Play Notre Dame

I know the consensuses and lines may change but these would qualify. They went 5-6 last week after 2 consecutive winning weeks.

A few of these plays agree with NY Sports plays this week, not sure his system of picking games but he's a 'contrarian player.' Similar to what we are experimenting with.

The games taht agree are
Temple
South Carolina
Notre Dame

rscl31 · Oct 16, 2003

Ok Here we are, going away for the day and here are the plays for tonight.

UL Lafeyette (already down to 7 at pinnacle)

Air Force is basically a borderline choice

Under Clemson (dropped two points) everyone on the over

skims · Oct 16, 2003

RSCL,

How big is the sample that you are getting the percentages from? Also, where can I find this data? And how has using this system worked out so far?

Thanks

rscl31 · Oct 16, 2003

it's wagerline.com. go to college football and hit consensus.

Two weeks ago i think it went 7-3, one week ago 10-3, last week 5-6.

rscl31 · Oct 17, 2003

ok here are the plays, there's a couple question marks that i'll update tomorrow

S.Carolina (one of 2 big plays)
Buffalo
Notre Dame (other big play)
Ball State
Tulsa
SMU
E. Michigan
Utah State
Temple

These are the teams to play on. I'll update the lines when i place these.

Over/Under notes

Ok, there were a few significant drops in the linies this week. The East Carolina line dropped from 51-47

The Miami one dropped from 55.5-52.

Boise State total dropped from 48.5-46

The Florida State dropped from 52-49.6

Lastly the Memphis line dropped from 60-57.5

All lines are from pinnacle. also, does anyone konw any other book other than pinnacle taht does ivy league. those lines all moved significantly over the week. Wonder if you could pounce bad lines at another book on pinnacles moves.

WhosCoaching · Oct 17, 2003

Hi,

I appreciate all this analyis. Could you maybe explain what's going on as if I had no clue.

LSU opened at -5, has been bet down to -4 (70%) on LSU
Play is S. Carolina

For example. If the line has been bet down to -4. Doesn't this mean The majority of people are taking USC +5 and the line is dropping to lure more bets to the LSU side? So why is there 70% on LSU? Thanks very much in advance.

rscl31 · Oct 17, 2003

it means the majority of the 'money' not people. Remember it's not the amount of picks but more so the amount of money on the team. These picks are suppose to be where 'the sharp' money is going. Hence the lines moving versus consensus opinion

WhosCoaching · Oct 17, 2003

I understand that number of bets has no meaning here. But the total amount of money wagered. Are you saying that 70% of the money at PINNALCE is going on LSU? And that the line is still dropping?

So we can assume this is bad money being placed on LSU at pinnacle.

But elsewhere, the smart money is moving the line the opposite direction? i.e. The smart money is hammering South Carolina.

Pardon my ignorance and thanks for bearing with me.

rscl31 · Oct 17, 2003

oh ok, i can see how it's confusing

The % are from wagerline.com. It's a site wehre the public picks vs the spread.

jlyons777 · Oct 17, 2003

rsc,

Thanks for the write up. I love the contrarian/smart money angle and have access to similar info other than Wagerline.

My plays are right in line with yours. I am also liking Duke and Stanford although the lines have been steady.

steeser · Oct 17, 2003

Lot of dogs on that list, and I don't mean underdogs.

LUCKYLINZ · Oct 17, 2003

I like your system, although it's tough to take teams like SMU.
Wouldn't Virginia be a pick? The line seems to have moved down to 71/2 from 81/2 and yet two thirds of the public is on Florida State.

rscl31 · Oct 17, 2003

where do you 7.5, i saw 8. opened up at 7.

Datrout, what other sites do u use other than wagerline.

TheChosen11 · Oct 17, 2003

rscl 5 dimes has lines on div iia if you want them of course they have ivy league

they are a great book

TheChosen11 · Oct 17, 2003

rscl

do you like a 30 point winner when everyone else was on the other team

it happened tonite cfl montreal -4.5 at toronto 70% on montreal -4.5 toronto won by 31 at +161

BrokeN · Oct 17, 2003

Rscl, are those nine teams set in stone for the week? What about late line moves? There are times when the Sharps bet a line in the other direction early in the week only to put a larger bet just before KO. Sharp money usually occurs as soon as the line comes out and just before KO. Moves throughout the mid-week may just be from Newsletters i.e. Power Sweeps Underdog Play of the Week which just so happens to be on ND.

The most accurate consensus is unattainable. It is the Yahoo college pick um contest which shows the numbers a day or two later, which sucks. They should allow anyone to see the numbers as soon as a pick is made by the players and lock that pick so that they can't change it.

BrokeN

TheChosen11 · Oct 17, 2003

broken you need 2 set a timeframe that at time what the consensus says you go with

or you WILL DRIVE YOURSELF CRAZY

rscl31 · Oct 17, 2003

the only one i changed last week (and correctly) was T. Tech that line rose 2-3 points on game day. I also added a play. But these look solid. I haven't included ones where the line hasn't moved at all. They are ones that may be added tomorrow

zebrahunt · Oct 18, 2003

I guess I'm still confused (Lucky Linz). I show on wagerline that the line is now FSU at
-7 1/2 down from -8 1/2 with the betting at about 2 to 1 on Florida State. I've got 7 1/2 at pinnacle and canbet. Anyway, I like your system, hope you'll keep posting.

rscl31 · Oct 18, 2003

adding syracuse +4
adding Rutgers +16.5
got Temple +31.5
Buffalso +29.5

SMU, Ball State, and UNLV are all borderline calls in this system, will update as i get lines