I'm a huge Nuggets fan, but I wouldn't bet on them winning the NBA championship this year. The NBA is all about matchups and I'm still not convinced the Nuggets can beat the Lakers. Looking at the NBA playoffs last year, the Nuggets lost to the Lakers because no one could guard Kobe and Gasol. One year later, there is still no one on the Nuggets that can effectively guard Kobe and Gasol. What's worse is that the Lakers have Andrew Bynum and Josh Powell now as well. They've also added Ariza who is a good defender and can slow down Melo.
Looking at the matchups, the only advantage the Nuggets have is at the PG and SF position, both of which the Lakers can contain:
PG: Billups vs D-Fish/Shannon Brown/Farmar. The reason why the Lakers are getting torched by Aaron Brooks is because he is incredibly fast and no one can stay in front of him. That isn't Billups' game. He isn't fast, he is slow and methodical.
SG: JR Smith/Dahntay Jones vs Kobe Bryant. As good as JR has been this year, even with his flashes of KB/MJ, he still is well below the real Kobe Bryant. Dahntay cannot guard Kobe without fouling him every possession. Advantage LAL
SF: Melo vs Ariza/Walton. Walton knows how to get underneath Melo's skin. Ariza is long and can keep up with Melo, although Melo is definitely stronger. Advantage DEN
PF: K-Mart vs Odom. As good of a defender as Kenyon is, Odom gives him problems because of his height and his long arms. Odom, as shitty as he plays, almost always outplays Kenyon which usually results in a win. His presence in the series would be huge and he almost always seems to come up big for the Lakers. Advantage LAL
Bigs: Nene vs Gasol/Bynum/Powell/Mbenga. Nene has been great this year but he has shown that he cannot play extended minutes due to foul trouble/fatigue. The minute Nene goes to the bench the Nuggets are fucked. Advantage LAL
The Lakers depth and Kobe Bryant will ultimately prevail. Granted, the Lakers have been playing like shit lately. But that is mainly because they are going up a great defensive team in Houston who can throw Artest and Battier at Kobe and make him take bad shots and pass the ball to his teammates who suck. The Nuggets will probably start off by playing Kobe one-on-one, and watch him torch the shit out of them. Then, when they double him up, it frees up Gasol, Bynum, Odom, and the rest of the guys get easy baskets. I saw it happen 4 times last year in the playoffs and it made me so depressed I wanted to stop watching basketball forever. That is why I'm so pessimistic about Denver beating LA.
If the Rockets can pull an upset tomorrow, then your investment gets a huge boost. I think the Nuggets have a chance against the Cavs.
