I haven't had one losing series yet on baseball total

[NorthernStar]

This is probably the kiss of death posting when I haven't had a losing series yet. Use a martingale system with the goal of winning one game in the series, quit after the one win. If you lose double the second game, ifyou win stop. If you lose double again. I have yet to go to game three. I don't care who pitches. I just increased my units on some plays:

1.5 units on

Toronto under
Detroit under
Boston under

1 unit

Oakland under
Minnesota over

1/2 unit

Atlanta over
Fla over

Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[NorthernStar]

Just thought I would post a record year to date without the detroit under game:


First game of the series:

16-6-2

Just a note on the two games i called pushes. One was a rain shortened game and I graded it as a push and played the second game in the series for one unit. The other push was tonight with Minnesota over. I played over 8 last night, many of you would have won this game with 7.5. At CRIS I know they had 7.5 this afternoon but I had already played my games in the morning. I will follow up with another 1 unit on Minnesota over on Saturday.

Second game in the series record after a loser in game 1:

5-0

I will have another one going saturday with Florida over the total.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[RPM]

so how do you choose whether to play under or over?

i dont get it....

 

[NorthernStar]

RPM:

The main basis of my theory is the line for the total is set by the pitchers. My theory is I will base my decision on the other 16 players (or 18 in the american league) in the game. Last night's Minesota game is a perfect example. I pushed with 8 playing the over but ther were alot of people that won with 7.5.

Lets look at the line and use 7.5 in the example. The total is low because we have Cy Young winner Santana pitching for Minnesota. he is up against a Tampa pitcher who is 1-5 and and era of over 5. So my theory is that this total is based mostly on these two pictures. If Santana was pitching against a stronger pitcher the total would have been even lower.

I base my opinions on the other 16 players in the game rather than the two pitchers. Tampa bay is the highest scoring team in the majors with over 180 runs scored. If Tampa can get a couple off of Santana and Minnesota can score off the crappy Tampa pitcher we get our win. If you played baseball it always seemed like hitting was contagious. When guys hit it seems like everybody hits, when guys don't hit, no one hits.

My theory has been very successful in the past and I used to take more time and handicap every game every day. I used to also apply a couple of other things I would track and follow before they were easily found on the internet: things like umpires, pitchers o/u, average runs per ballpark. The best indicator in determining a total in my opinion is how the team is doing not the two guys that are going to pitch today. Now that I have kids I am sticking solely to my team theory and using the martingale system to keep it simple and less time consuming. I hope it gives you some insight. I have used my main theory for over 15 years and it works.

I hope you played them last night because they almost all won.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[NorthernStar]

So it is clear:


Since I pushed Minnesota yesterday I will play one unit over today. If you won yesterday do not play on this game today.

I will also play 1 unit on Florida over today.

One other correction I did have one push or rain shortened 2 unit and followed it up with a 2 unit winner in game three of the series. This is a correction of the post of my record.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[BaseballGuy]

RPM:

The main basis of my theory is the line for the total is set by the pitchers. My theory is I will base my decision on the other 16 players (or 18 in the american league) in the game. Last night's Minesota game is a perfect example. I pushed with 8 playing the over but ther were alot of people that won with 7.5.

Lets look at the line and use 7.5 in the example. The total is low because we have Cy Young winner Santana pitching for Minnesota. he is up against a Tampa pitcher who is 1-5 and and era of over 5. So my theory is that this total is based mostly on these two pictures. If Santana was pitching against a stronger pitcher the total would have been even lower.

I base my opinions on the other 16 players in the game rather than the two pitchers. Tampa bay is the highest scoring team in the majors with over 180 runs scored. If Tampa can get a couple off of Santana and Minnesota can score off the crappy Tampa pitcher we get our win. If you played baseball it always seemed like hitting was contagious. When guys hit it seems like everybody hits, when guys don't hit, no one hits.

My theory has been very successful in the past and I used to take more time and handicap every game every day. I used to also apply a couple of other things I would track and follow before they were easily found on the internet: things like umpires, pitchers o/u, average runs per ballpark. The best indicator in determining a total in my opinion is how the team is doing not the two guys that are going to pitch today. Now that I have kids I am sticking solely to my team theory and using the martingale system to keep it simple and less time consuming. I hope it gives you some insight. I have used my main theory for over 15 years and it works.

I hope you played them last night because they almost all won.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

Hitters score runs, not pitchers. Take the oakland/yankees game. If you use the pitching stats for your capping you are going to lose. Oakland couldnt hit a little league pitcher.

 

[heart222]

Hi. My concern is the same that I expressed with SSI and Kruser that losing one series 7 units literally wipes out the rest of the other teams that weekend. if the a.l. has 7 teams and you win 6 of them game 1 and the 7th loses 3 in a row you are minus 1 for the weekend. My question is whats wrong with breaking even in a series so lets bet 1-1-2. if you lose all 3 you are minus 4 and the other 6 games you are plus 6 net plus 2. Its the concept of I lost money here so I have to make it back here. Isee the same thing in the market bonds or sp or goog dont know you made or lost money and dont care.

I started this weekend betting hometeams to win(similar to SSI except Idont have to wait) 48 out 52 series homers have won 1 game. I exempted tb. went 3-3 last night break even i have 3 games tonight same 1 unit if one of them loses will bet 2 units tomorrow dont want to give up whole weekend on one team. think 1-1-2 or 1-1-1 is a better money management system long run.
are you betting all teams? both leagues or capping games?
Do you look at teams either home or away records o/u as a guide I use that and it helps sometime. regards heart 222

 

[NorthernStar]

Baseballguy that is part of my point. Oakland scores very little and has decent enough pitching and defense to keep the scores low, the have gone under 66% of the time so far this year. Yankees are more of a team where you never really know what you are going to get. Oakland was the team that carried the majority of the weight in my selection


Heart222 what you said makes sense and I can see your point. You could use the same teams and follow with your betting progression. So far year to date i haven't had to go to game three and play 4 units. I will have to ponder that some more. My thought off the cuff is that I am saying they are not going to do the opposite of what I think 3 days in a row therefore play the four units. If there is a four game series and I lost the first three I would almost for sure stop the progression. A martingale is unbeatable if you have an unlimited bankroll and can continue to bet the amounts you need to continue the progression. Not recomended but accurate. I am also just starting to change my unit size on a series to match up with how confident I am with each series. Instead of playing all games for the same amount.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[NorthernStar]

Still undefeated from a series standpoint. While some won with Minnesota in game one I pushed, lost and won today. Florida over was a small 1/2 unit play and I lost the first two and won game 3 for my 1/2 unit profit. I thought I might jinx myself by posting but I guess not. I also won on the Arizona series one unit but that series started Thursday and won so I was though with my progression. A good weekend for baseball for me as I picked up 10 units on my totals. I also used some other handicappers on the forum to play a few sides as well along with a few of my own side selections also for a nice profit. NBA wasn't too shabby either winning with Miami and Under along with San Antonio Under. I wishi every weekend was like this. I will try to post my totals for the up coming series on Monday morning. I would like to see how they match up with a few other totals handicappers like winning systems who is off to a good start.


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[spreadbeater]

Northern Star,

I hope you keep posting your winners here for the upcoming series. Congrats on the great day.

SB

 

[tendog]

good job so far ,northern. your basis for the selections makes sense to me, so you might be careful going forward. lol seriously, good luck and thanks for sharing your thoughts here.

 

[RPM]

i know im a half a retard but i still dont realy understand how you choose whether to play under or over....

 

[NorthernStar]

RPM:
Trying another way to explain, I think the line is based 80% on pitchers and 20% on the teams. I make my decision based solely on the teams and not on the pitchers. The line already takes into account the pitchers. I don't care who is pitching or what the line is. My assumption is they have nice shiny hotels by putting up good numbers. My value comes from basing my decisions on the teams not the pitchers.

Not sure how else to explain. I just know it works.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star