I have just had the best baseball month of my life- here is how

[Iceman]

guys i am alwasy looking for an edge like you, but these systems involving line moves are not as easy as they seem. trust me, i have tried this many times. i used to bet a system that took road dogs from +120 to +150. it is hard to keep track of these line moves and what place to use when factoring which line to use.

as i see it tonight
plays

atl
zona
seattle
houst



let me know if someone see it different.

gl
tw

not trying to come down on you just trying to show you all the hard work and effort put into this finding "value". Sorry if I came across a little forward, I know in the end we are all trying to do the same thing and that is win.

I think to figure out anything you have to look at hundreds and hundreds of plays, not a few dozen. I am not sure I would call this a system but more like a comparsion to day trading or somehthing similar. A buy low, sell high approach. This is why I like line movement it creates ALOT of plays and alot of plays (if you have an edge) is the fastest and safest way to profit. Repeat: If you have an edge.

Don't get me wrong I know this is isn't the "perfect" system but I beleive after a thousand or so plays of GREAT bets I could have a 3% ROI (that is all I am looking for). I wasn't so sure about this whole line movement thing until I seen the major results I had during hoops and have become fascinated with it. This is why I think the whole caping thing is over-blown. Its just too hard looking at the same stats and numbers as everyone else and trying to decipher it. This way (line movement) seems more logical, to me.

I just beleive I am getting the best of it with these plays. Like getting Houston, who was +132 or so ALL DAY and than it flies up to +150 for really no reason. Catching prices at their apex. (Big beleiver in jinxes so I had to wait for this to end to post this).:lolBIG:

 

[Texas-Winners]

I split out the games today. this has been such a tough year, bucs and chop. good luck on this. i am going to ride it for a month.

 

[oldschool]

Iceman I used your approach tonight. I bet Atl -143 for 1 unit and added another unit at ATl -134. I bet Hou at +143 and another unit at HOU +153. I lost one unit each on Sea and Ariz. Again, when the public steams against a hot team or a hot pitcher (Smoltz), that's the best steam to fade. Sea was a close call; my buy was at -103, which I found and jumped on (unfortunately)! I think I'll bet 1 unit at 10%, 1/2 more at 14% and another 1/2 unit at 18%.

My Pinnacle v Square books went like this: I bet Wash at +155 (overnight line), NYY at -105 (overnight), TAM at +220, and KC at +160.

Good luck to all tomorrow!

 

[EagleEye+]

OS, I must say that you have peaked my interest. We have researched our database, derived from Pinnacle lines over many years, and we can find nothing to support line moves either going with or against it. But you have offered something that we have never looked at. If I understand what you’re doing, you are looking at something that only a few books offer, Pinnacle being one.
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Most look at line moves at being a move that goes from –3 to –3.5. As you stated in one of your posts, you are actually looking at the line moves inside of the line itself. I think your post suggested a UCLA –3 –113 going to –3 –123.
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Pinnacle has small juice their line needs to be as sharp as possible. If I understand you correctly, if the Pinnacle line moves at least 10 points at once, you will play against that move. Your thinking would be that Pinnacle’s information is better than the people that just moved the line.
<o></o>
Question: Have you kept records of this type of playing? If you have kept records, would you possibly pass along how it has done? And how long have you followed this type of system?
<o></o>
Texas-Winners: You mention a system where you followed dogs in the +120 to +150 range. We have researched the dogs all the way back to 1998. There are 2,480 games in each baseball season, so that’s a total of 19,840 games, not counting this year. There is a system that has won money every year playing dogs. We don’t like it because it doesn’t meet our ROI requirements. If I remember correctly it goes like this: PLAY A HOME DOG WHERE THE FAVORITE IS –151 TO –175. We haven’t looked at this system this year, mainly because as I stated we decided not to play it. There were some good years producing as much as about $2,000 per $100 wagered. I would suggest that you check it out for this year before playing it. If I remember correctly the ROI was somewhere in the 4% range. We look for things that have an ROI much, much higher.
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I forget who posted that a few plays will not make a system. I have been told in the past that it takes 32 occurrences of something to develop a trend, but we usually want to see several hundred occurrences. Notice the above trend where we have looked at almost 20,000 occurrences.
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GLTA,
Eagle

 

[oldschool]

Eagle Eye, you have it backwards. In college basketball, if Pinnacle moves their line 10 points or more at one time, I bet WITH the move. Pinnacle knows their winning bettors, and when they get a bet from a winning bettor, they use that to their advantage by changing the line very fast. These are usually early morning moves.

Also, when you talk about line moves, are you talking about moves by comparing the opening gameday line and the closing line? Thanks!

 

[slcgreg]

Are you going to post the recommended plays each day? I for one would appreciate it!

slcgreg

 

[docslep]

according to wagerline, the marlins are already a pick. lots of moving lines so far. atlanta,boston,cinci,arizona and detroit are moving rapidly. stay tuned. (please correct me if i am mistaken)

what is the site that gives all the line moves of the various books to compare?

 

[docslep]

tremendous move in the minni game, but i think this is due to the pitching changes, so i won't consider this one. looks like enough going on later.

 

[EagleEye+]

OS, thanks for the quick response. I for one appreciate your candor and will NEVER take it the wrong way....Thanks for that. I thought that was the way you might have meant it in Basketball, and probably football as well. If the line moves 10 points, go with the move. But in baseball, you're saying go against it, right?

Our database is built on Pinnacle's opening line. But Mama Bird actually prints her lines out a few hours after the opening, so we can use either. When we run our programs, we actually do it against the closing lines, which to be honest, I don't like. There isn't a person on the planet that can bet a closing line.

I am in the process right now of going back and looking for 10 point moves to see if I can find any verifiable trends in bases. Did you have any research that shows what I should expect to find? This may take a few days, mainly because we've never done it this way before and we don't have our database setup to look for this, so I've got to do it manually.

Docslet, there are several sites that give line moves. Everything from Wagerline, Sportsbook, Sports Insights, Don Best and I'm sure there are others. Some are free and some cost as much as $500 a month. Each has some advantages from just being free to being instant. It depends on what you want.

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[EagleEye+]

Docslep, Bot Minnesota and Texas changed pitchers. I would naturally defer to OS, but personally, I'd avoid this game, unless.....you can determine the line on the new pitcher(s) and then see a major move off of that number......

GL,
Eagle

 

[Iceman]

Eagle Eye, you have it backwards. In college basketball, if Pinnacle moves their line 10 points or more at one time, I bet WITH the move. Pinnacle knows their winning bettors, and when they get a bet from a winning bettor, they use that to their advantage by changing the line very fast. These are usually early morning moves.

Also, when you talk about line moves, are you talking about moves by comparing the opening gameday line and the closing line? Thanks!

I use the exact same logic for hoops and was very successfull with it.

 

[Iceman]

OS, thanks for the quick response. I for one appreciate your candor and will NEVER take it the wrong way....Thanks for that. I thought that was the way you might have meant it in Basketball, and probably football as well. If the line moves 10 points, go with the move. But in baseball, you're saying go against it, right?

Our database is built on Pinnacle's opening line. But Mama Bird actually prints her lines out a few hours after the opening, so we can use either. When we run our programs, we actually do it against the closing lines, which to be honest, I don't like. There isn't a person on the planet that can bet a closing line.

I am in the process right now of going back and looking for 10 point moves to see if I can find any verifiable trends in bases. Did you have any research that shows what I should expect to find? This may take a few days, mainly because we've never done it this way before and we don't have our database setup to look for this, so I've got to do it manually.

Docslet, there are several sites that give line moves. Everything from Wagerline, Sportsbook, Sports Insights, Don Best and I'm sure there are others. Some are free and some cost as much as $500 a month. Each has some advantages from just being free to being instant. It depends on what you want.

GLTA,
Eagle

Eagle,

If you research this can you check with a 10% move in bases not 10 cents. As you know a 10 cent off -180 line isn't nearly as big as a 10% move off a -180 line. Plus a -180 line that moves 10 point/cents isn't obvioulsly as strong as it would be with a -115 line.

10% is the criteria OS and I have been using
Any info is much appreciaited.
Thanks

 

[EagleEye+]

Ice, very good point. I had just got into the history and found Minnesota from the 31st, which I think we all remember, as the line moved from -140 (opening at Pinnacle) to -123 (closing), actually it went as low as -122, but the big move never happened. It was a steady down turn throught the course of the day. Therefore, I am not sure whether to count this. I thought the criteria was for a pound of at least 10 points, or now 10% should happen.

Ice, please clear this up. Am I looking for a 1 time 10% move or a total of a 10% move?

Also, another example, would have been the CWS, opened -194 (again and for future reference, all my numbers come from Pinnacle) and moved to -207. Ice, you have just cleared this up as it didn't move 10%, which would have been -213.4 (rounded down to -213?). This was not 10% so this game wasn't considered, right?

Eagle

 

[Yogi1964]

Good Idea

 

[oldschool]

Eagle Eye, in baseball we are loking for a 10% or more move at any time on gameday, regardless of whether moves are quick or slow. I only follow moves of 10 points at one time in college basketball.

As for the game you mentioned, we bet against the steam.

 

[Iceman]

Eagle,

I (we) use 10% difference from the opening line. Like OS says it can be all at once or a slow steady decline(or upwards if dog) in price. Maybe we shouldn't use the word steam. How about value off the opening numbers.

In your example , Minnestoa is the correct play because the numbers moved 10% from opener. Now your 2nd example(CWS) is a NO (IMO). That line would have to have moved nearly 20 cents (which we would have been 10%).

Like we have said hoops and other sports are different. I like to follow sharps and the steam in hoops (not sure about foots). But for bases when the number moves 10% from opener (how ever it does it is fine) than we want the value and we go against the public and technically follow the books.

Quick example:
Washington was +158 at Pinny around midnite last nite. I just got a +174, which was needed for the 10% move (about 16 cents). A 10 cent move would have made the number about +168 and wouldn't have qualified under our rules. 10% is the key number

 

[lifexpired]

surprising to me that you are only looking for a 3% roi, but i guess that would do with a system like this where volume takes a higher precedent, as you are just looking to let the math work itself out with these #s at a higher value...good luck on your system

 

[EagleEye+]

Johnny Produce, As I stated before, somewhere above, I don't play systems that only have a chance to return a small ROI. What I'm hoping for here is to find out if this can be the basis for something much bigger. I agree with the implication that if you can only get an ROI of 3%, the best thing is to probably leave your money in a bank.

Mama Bird, my wife, researches data and we have found some things that produce a much larger ROI. This is not to say that what people are doing here is wrong in any way. Hell, anyone that can make money in this business deserves a great pat on the back.

We, Mama Bird and myself, look for systems that have a percentage possibility of somewhere in the 35% ro 100% range, sometimes more. They are there, but most people don't have either the time or the knowledge of how to find them. This is our primary source of income so we make the time to research the data.

Another good example is something that we do during the NCAA baseketball tourney that has won for 15 consecutive years.....NEVER had a losing session.

What I'm hoping to find is something that might have an ROI of about 3% to maybe 5% and then run it through some of our other criteria and take it up to a much higher number.

I have always been a fair man. If I do uncover something that came from this forum, I will post it here for others to see. Even if I don't find anything, I'll post that results as well.

GLTA,
Eagle

 

[kidslick]

using your theory , FLA and Atlanta are now plays

atlanta opened up at -124 now -112

fla opened -120 now -112



wow yankees are -168 tomorrow

 

[Iceman]

using your theory , FLA and Atlanta are now plays

atlanta opened up at -124 now -112

fla opened -120 now -112



wow yankees are -168 tomorrow

Florida -120 to -112 is NOT 10%. But I am thinking you must have misprinted your point as that lins is lower than that.

As for the 3%. I am not talking about 3% backtested. I am just being realistic. 54% win rate with -110 lines is a little over 3% ROI. Not saying that is great but it is solid and it is a profit. Lots of plays is the key.