Well, that's what I've been thinking lately. Maybe Pinnacle doesn't care so much which way the "sharps" are going.
Maybe they care more about getting scalpers to take a certain side, since there is probably more volume coming from scalpers than "sharps"...they lean their lines a certain way to get the action they want from the players they want....all the while other books are taking the brunt of it. Books like SIA, VIP, etc.
It's quite apparent that books like CRIS and Bowmans want NOTHING to do with having a line that is close to "scalpable" with Pinnacle.
It's just amazing how much I lose there on a mothly basis.
BAUS
Maybe they care more about getting scalpers to take a certain side, since there is probably more volume coming from scalpers than "sharps"...they lean their lines a certain way to get the action they want from the players they want....all the while other books are taking the brunt of it. Books like SIA, VIP, etc.
It's quite apparent that books like CRIS and Bowmans want NOTHING to do with having a line that is close to "scalpable" with Pinnacle.
It's just amazing how much I lose there on a mothly basis.
BAUS
Every time this subject has come up about Pinnacle supposedly "liking" a side and posing heavier juice on it, I have checked, and the majority of the time Pinnacle simply has 1/2 point lower/higher each side on particular games than many books, nullifying this belief.....
I agree 100% with Blue's original observation...
Scalps between SIA and Pinnacle come out in favor of SIA because SIA has erroneous lines, and not because Pinnacle is doing anything special. These scalps are a fool's bargain IMO because books like SIA will go down and when you factor in the probability of losing your entire balance there, your EV will be very small indeed, or maybe even negative.
Scalps between SIA and Pinnacle come out in favor of SIA because SIA has erroneous lines, and not because Pinnacle is doing anything special. These scalps are a fool's bargain IMO because books like SIA will go down and when you factor in the probability of losing your entire balance there, your EV will be very small indeed, or maybe even negative.
Once again the transparency of the so-called "Sharp" has rared its ugly head. People have to get it into their heads the fact that to be a successful Bookmaker, you have to be sharp, especially when most of your business is 2 horse races. Another myth is the so-called "square"or mug, there just isnt enough of them to go around. A true mug is like gold dust, one that can sustain losses over a long period is as rare as an RX losing poster, so books have to be able to win money off people that think their good.
Maybe I'm naive, but I think it's all automated. The only leans that I believe they have are when the line opens, like the Illini 2nd half line last night. As far as line movement, I usually move the line 1 cent with a $100 bet, and about 5 cents with a $500 bet. So I believe that they start with a line, and then the computer moves it on action. When the juice hits too high, they adjust the number. I think their secret to making money is simply balanced action on every number that is put up for betting. Virtually every bet moves the juice at least a little. That's just my feeling, that maybe we try to read too much into the "leans."
Illini said:
If you mean that you move lines 5 cent by betting $500 you certainly aren't talking about NBA or Hoops spread lines. You can bet 10k on NBA spreads and the line only changes a couple of cent.... of course it differs if you happen to bet every time several large bets hit the same line that you are betting.
And you aren't naive when you say most is automated. When Pinnacle want to adjust the spread, they do it manually. They rarely move the lines manually besides that.
blah blah blah.
i can tell you that based on my observations over the past 18 months, you'd be better off taking what pinny gives you. i am talking about this scenario:
its 10 minutes before the game goes...the world has the knicks -5 -110, pinny has the knicks -5 +102. if you take the side pinny "wants" you to take every time, you'd come out ahead.
i know most in here won't agree but, i'm telling you the truth.
i can tell you that based on my observations over the past 18 months, you'd be better off taking what pinny gives you. i am talking about this scenario:
its 10 minutes before the game goes...the world has the knicks -5 -110, pinny has the knicks -5 +102. if you take the side pinny "wants" you to take every time, you'd come out ahead.
i know most in here won't agree but, i'm telling you the truth.
Slash said:
I don't bet the NBA, and 90% of my bets are college basketball overnights. I've noticed that roughly, a $100 bet would move a line from -4 -106 to -4 -107. A $500 bet would move it to -4 -111. And this happens very frequently, so I think it moves on every single bet out there, not just large syndicate action.
Darryl Parsons said:
I have found that the SIA overnight lines, the early opening lines,
had little if anything ever to offer as far as scalping. It was after
the betting started and the lines moved at one or both of SIA &
Pinnacle that scalps became available. SIA might recieve heavy
dollars on a popular team and heavy favorite like the NY Yankees
while Pinnacle's line moved the other way. By constantly getting
this kind of action, SIA is raking in the dough, have been in the
business for a number of years, and should be around for a long
time yet to come. So i would have to disagree that SIA is going
going to go down.
SENDITIN said:
i agree with this 100%. i did in fact make a killing doing this last year. but, this is not specific to pinnacle. it just reflects overall line movement. if the whole world moves the knicks from -3 to -5, and you call your local and he has -3...you take the -3 every time.
i'm not talking about that. i am talking about pinny versus everyone else that has a real time line.
