I had a poster that emailed me wanting to know how I cap a baseball game (heres how)

[CHOPTALK]

sorry choptalk, dont you use anydata for capping the game. thanx for your answer.

I dont understand the question.

But maybe you meant to ask if I read data to come up with these rankings.

Of course I do. The pitching info is made 100% on data. As a matter of fact the whole system is based on data.

But maybe that was not your question.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Ok everyone, the openers just came out on sundays games.

St Louis is exactly a -145 favorite in this game sunday. This was the exact line that I was predicting.

We will have a small play on NY>

 

[che-chino]

yes is ok, that what i wanted know.

 

[CarolinaKid]

x/o are great but dont forget to get a real good line service for the power plays and in bases the late moves are great for making money imo and no 24 hrs in advance in bases that will kill you in the long run imo...gl this year...ck

 

[newb411breaker19]

Think about what you just said.

You said that lines are too influenced by the SP.


Thats the very reason why starting pitching it the most important factor in capping baseball.


There is not a factor in all of sports that affects a line more than who the starting pitcher is in a baseball game.


Hell, the sportsbooks wont even let you make a bet on a pitcher with locked in numbers.

Thats why they have action or listed pitchers.


Think if you take a team with there ace at action, and the ace gets scratched right before the start of the game, you line can get adjusted by up to 200 cents!

The starting pitcher is more important than the starting QB for football.

If you take the Colts on monday at -7 and payton manning gets hurt in practice on Thursday you still get the colts at -7 no matter what.

How come a sportbook will let you lock in a bet on a football game no matter what happens with injuries, but at the same time a book would not dream of letting you lock in Tampa +300 against the Twins with Santana, and if he were to get scratched before the game you line gets adjusted.


There is not one single thing in all of sports that determines a line more than the starting pitcher in baseball.

And if the line gets made almost on the pitcher, dont you think it would be smart to cap accordingly?

Whoever told you that pitching is not important is a loser.


The 1972 Phillys lost 120 games, but Steve Carlton won almost 30 games by himself that season on that same team.

Philly was the worst team in baseball 3 out of 4 games, but they were the best team in baseball everytime Carlton stepped on the hill.

generally there is too much emphasis placed by the general public on starting pitchers, from what I've read pitching overall constitutes about 45% of the game while the rest is on the offense and a small percent on the defense.
"and if the line gets made almost on the pitcher, don't you think it would be smart to cap accordingly?"
not really, no. obviously you need to place much weight on the pitching however offense is just as important. The line is not almost made entirely upon the pitcher, it just looks as if it is.
One quick question for you Chop... In your St. Louis/Mets example, how come you don't just take the larger number over the smaller number and divide it? This would come out with a line of St. Louis -114. just curious

 

[Shotgun]

I think this system is vastly underestimating the impact offense has on winning games.

"OFFENSE 70

Starting Pitcher 120
Bullpen 50
Defense 15"
​

Translating this, run scoring ability gets 70 points while run prevention gets 185. A credible system should have these two equal...run scoring is just as important as run prevention.

 

[CHOPTALK]

generally there is too much emphasis placed by the general public on starting pitchers, from what I've read pitching overall constitutes about 45% of the game while the rest is on the offense and a small percent on the defense.
"and if the line gets made almost on the pitcher, don't you think it would be smart to cap accordingly?"
not really, no. obviously you need to place much weight on the pitching however offense is just as important. The line is not almost made entirely upon the pitcher, it just looks as if it is.
One quick question for you Chop... In your St. Louis/Mets example, how come you don't just take the larger number over the smaller number and divide it? This would come out with a line of St. Louis -114. just curious

That makes 0 sense, that would not translate to the line value.

Believe me, I have spent years making this line value converstion chart. Its now in its 10th season. It coralates almost perfectly to the moneyline.

Doing what you say would change everything.

 

[Larbowski]

Chop, this is my first post here and I'll be following you this season, so good luck. Can you list what your rankings are for each category with each team and the total points? And the starting pitchers? Or is that too big of a thing to put up? Thanks.

 

[newb411breaker19]

That makes 0 sense, that would not translate to the line value.

Believe me, I have spent years making this line value converstion chart. Its now in its 10th season. It coralates almost perfectly to the moneyline.

Doing what you say would change everything.

I hear ya.. but most times i've seen power ratings the way you generally go about making a line is by taking the largest number and dividing it by the lower number and then adjusting for home field advantage. At least that's what statfox recommends with their power ratings. In terms of it making 0 sense, could you explain?

 

[JakeT.]

Excel is a beautiful little product, isn't it? Speaking of, I need to get some programming done tonight for my database this year. I'll probably end up drinking and wasting time instead though. Only have the AL West coded.