In 3.5 years of Major League service Ryan Howard has gone from $300,000 per to asking $18 mil. this year. Don't get me wrong, he is a serious threat in the batters box, and will probably be the all time leader in home runs when he is finished. If he is not going to make serious money until after 6 years what will he get paid? Where is the case for justification here? Explain his career numbers using the terms free agent, salary arbitration, years of service, and any other way you want to make the justification please.
Everyone starts out at the league minimum. Teams don't have to pay them any more than the league minimum their first three years, but most teams will give a player a small raise his second and third years, and the stars, they might give 600K or something in their 3rd year. After 3 years, they become arbitration eligible, and they make bigger money. Or, like in the case of Ryan Braun, Adam Wainwright, and Evan Longoria, the team just locks them up in a long term deal and avoids arbitration altogether. Players like Ryan Howard haven't been locked up. They are owned by the team and are still under complete control, they just have to come to terms with the team. Usually the team offers one figure, the player requests a higher figure, and they settle somewhere in between. Or, if they neither side will budge, an arbitrator will look at his production and decide who's offer is more fair, and they'll choose a winning side. That's the situation Howard is in. He is asking 18 mil and the team is offering 14 mil. My guess is they'll settle in between, but if they don't, an arbitrator will award one of them the winner. Or, maybe the Phils will sign him to a long-term deal now. But they are the only team he can sign with, unless he holds out for free agency. I think the Phils have control of him until after the 2010 season. As far as the numbers, it's all a crapshoot. Since Howard made 10 mil last year, you know he's gonna get a raise, it just depends on how much.
Being a veteran is what gets you paid in this league. That's why chumps like Jason Marquis can be terrible, yet still get 3 years/21 mil, and young superstars make 400K a season. Howard's batting average and strikeout count are both terrible, but his agent will use his other numbers and I'm sure get him an elite contract, either now, or after he hits the free agent market. He is considered a superstar of the game, and unless he really falls off the next couple years, I'm sure his agent will ask for 6-8 years at 20 mil a season.