I disagree with ICEMAN, hope the SB lands right on the number

[Fishhead]

arty:

 

[Fishhead]

Heck, let's go for the gusto and hope the total lands on 46 or 47 also.........


ARIZONA 20
PITTBURGH 27

 

[MONDOGECKO]

Why wud u want such a thing? A Push is like kissing ur sister. hno:

 

[PapaParlay]

Why wud u want such a thing? A Push is like kissing ur sister. hno:

I don't think Fish is pushing if it lands on the number.

 

[MONDOGECKO]

I don't think Fish is pushing if it lands on the number.

How do u justify betting Steelers -6.5, Cards +7.5. I know u can get a good reward for no risk, but really what r the chances the game lands on exactly 7. Is it even worth the vig for such a longshot?

 

[joeyfitzclick]

I think he is referring to the books getting killed if it lands on 7 & 47.

 

[MONDOGECKO]

I think he is referring to the books getting killed if it lands on 7 & 47.

OO ok, I am slow.

 

[Fishhead]

I think he is referring to the books getting killed if it lands on 7 & 47.

Actually, my reasons are twofold.

1. Books and bookies getting killed

2. I win(yes, laying -6.5 and taking +7.5 is +EV)

FH

 

[patswin]

Actually, my reasons are twofold.

1. Books and bookies getting killed

2. I win(yes, laying -6.5 and taking +7.5 is +EV)

FH

Fish what juice do you need for -6.5 and +7.5 to be +EV.

I can get both sides at -115, is this too much?

 

[Fishhead]

Fish what juice do you need for -6.5 and +7.5 to be +EV.

I can get both sides at -115, is this too much?

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Actually, my reasons are twofold.

1. Books and bookies getting killed

2. I win(yes, laying -6.5 and taking +7.5 is +EV)

FH

You are right, the books get killed...but just for one day...

You will NEVER, EVER hurt the top tier books like Pinny, CRIS, and Olympic...

They would swallow their loss and come back stronger than ever for March Madness...

Did you know that most books do better on March Madness than the first week of Football for new accounts?

 

[Fishhead]

You are right, the books get killed...but just for one day...

You will NEVER, EVER hurt the top tier books like Pinny, CRIS, and Olympic...

They would swallow their loss and come back stronger than ever for March Madness...

Did you know that most books do better on March Madness than the first week of Football for new accounts?

AGREE 100%


Keep in mind, the books have hundreds of various wagers they are booking on this game, and any bookmaking outfit worth their weight in salt would have a very, very tough time not showing a profit for the SB game.

By the way, as stated over a week ago, I'm not moving off the number "7" in this game as a bookmaker and wrapping up a nice win-win position, hopefully on massive volume.

:toast:

 

[patswin]

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

thanks fh

 

[MONDOGECKO]

Didnt most books lose last year when the Giants upset the Pats?

 

[PapaParlay]

Didnt most books lose last year when the Giants upset the Pats?

They lost money on the sides and the ML, but they made up for it on props so they at least broke even...pretty sure most books actually made a profit.

 

[Jambruins]

How would it kill the books if it landed on 7? Wouldn't all the straight bets push? Even a teaser bettor would need to hit the other part of his teaser to cash so some would win and some would lose.

 

[PapaParlay]

How would it kill the books if it landed on 7? Wouldn't all the straight bets push? Even a teaser bettor would need to hit the other part of his teaser to cash so some would win and some would lose.

If the number lands at -7 and the total falls at 47, anyone who bet -6.5 would win, anyone who bought an extra half point to +7.5 would win, and every single teaser of combinations of sides and totals would win.

 

[Fishhead]

If the number lands at -7 and the total falls at 47, anyone who bet -6.5 would win, anyone who bought an extra half point to +7.5 would win, and every single teaser of combinations of sides and totals would win.

Can't believe I found +7.5 -110 on this game last week............

 

[Doug]

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

actually one in 21 times is breakeven.

where did you get +7.5 -110 ?

 

[davidcng]

Disagree with cappers on super bowl lines,

FINAL SCORE:

PITTSBURGH 17
ARIZONA 13


ARIZONA WILL COVER AND UNDER....