I know what you mean, and looking at it from the K St. side, do we really trust that old Bird Snyder is gonna be able to find a way to slow this Auburn machine down? My natural inclination is to just play the RLM with the home dog in a game like this, but going against the SEC makes me pause, especially an elite SEC such as this. Maybe best to just sit back have a few cervezas and enjoy the game, maybe make a small pizza $ bet for fun or something. I mean 13 covers in a row are you kidding me?
Not saying last years matters that much, but KSt played some very good offensive teams last year and all the games were pretty close. But most were spread passing teams... will be interesting to see if they could stop this running attack. Very tough to play against K St in the little apple.
Here's what I think. If this game was on Saturday, the line would be 11. The line, IMO, is 3 pts different because it's Thursday night. I get that. But, it's not like Auburn isn't used to playing in tough environments. They play in tougher environments 3-4 times a year. I just don't think the whole "Manhattan is a tough place to play" stuff is going to have an ounce of effect on Auburn.
I could certainly be wrong, but KState hasn't seen a running offense like this one. I think it could be a 3pt game at the half, but Auburn is going to wear them down.
I could certainly be wrong, but KState hasn't seen a running offense like this one. I think it could be a 3pt game at the half, but Auburn is going to wear them down.
It may be the squarest of all square bets but I made a moderate bet on Auburn -7 110. If the line should drop to 6 1/2 at 110 or less I'll add to it. Too big of a mismatch in talent and KSU doesn't run anything on offense or defense that is new to Auburn. I know all the intangibles favor KSU... home dog, Thurs night, Snyder mystique, big public favorite etc. I could be wrong but I'm betting on a good coach with much better players IMO. I try not to overthink my bets.
Are we getting too cute and fancy here? Trends and Thur night home dogs and reverse line movement.... All relevant and very important stuff. I had a conversation with my buddies about this today ( an ongoing conversation that has been going on for a while). When does a trend end, when does it get stale and most importantly when do we go against the trend?
The answer can be long and detailed but in simple terms is it not when the trend goes mainstream? when its public knowledge? When it has been accounted for and maybe even overcompensated for?
The preseason golden nugget line was -13. Auburn has looked good and K st hasn't. Yet the line has come down to -7'. Weren't those great k St upsets with different players, a different qb and a whole lot more talent? Did the opponet have a bye week before the k st gm or was Coach Snyder able to work his magic on a short week?
Imho Auburn is too big, too fast, too deep, too well coached, too talented and too good for K st, especially for the K st that played against Iowa st. If thats the team that shows up, Aub will cover this in 10 minutes. After saying all that, I admit that K st has a decisive special teams advantage and a major home field advantage. Also I'm not the sec or big12 expert but Im all over Aub here, I expected at least -10. Bigger play than usual too. Sorry if I came off as preachy. Good luck
The answer can be long and detailed but in simple terms is it not when the trend goes mainstream? when its public knowledge? When it has been accounted for and maybe even overcompensated for?
The preseason golden nugget line was -13. Auburn has looked good and K st hasn't. Yet the line has come down to -7'. Weren't those great k St upsets with different players, a different qb and a whole lot more talent? Did the opponet have a bye week before the k st gm or was Coach Snyder able to work his magic on a short week?
Imho Auburn is too big, too fast, too deep, too well coached, too talented and too good for K st, especially for the K st that played against Iowa st. If thats the team that shows up, Aub will cover this in 10 minutes. After saying all that, I admit that K st has a decisive special teams advantage and a major home field advantage. Also I'm not the sec or big12 expert but Im all over Aub here, I expected at least -10. Bigger play than usual too. Sorry if I came off as preachy. Good luck
