I can guarentee you that this Play will win you some $$$

[yanks11pm]

so I know not alot of ya'll like Teasers, but this one WILL definitely hit.

promise.

Clemson +18½
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Thu@7:45p
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Syracuse +41½
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@12:00p
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Oklahoma State -2
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@3:30p
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Utah -1
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@10:30p
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<!-- filename = /sportsbook/riskWinBlockPrint.jsp --> Risked US$ 1,200.00 to win US$ 1,000.00

 

[SpiderWeb]

1. If you've been gambling for more than a week, you will know that a sure thing does not exist.

2. I doubt this will hit. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see PSU ruin this one for you.

 

[Furmanski]

13 pt. teasers are -EV. Teasers in general are -EV.

BOL though.

 

[Mr.CantstopWontstop]

psu WILL ruin this teaser hahah, a greg paulus qb going to happy valley hahaha a team that lost by 3 in OT getting 28pts lol, teasing psu had to have been only choice in this game

 

[GoForIt]

1. If you've been gambling for more than a week, you will know that a sure thing does not exist.

2. I doubt this will hit. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see PSU ruin this one for you.

Penn State hosed me last week and I read an article where the books said they felt like they stole one from the players, who scores 0 in the 2nd half after leading 31-0, ridiculous, I even saw Joe Pa say after the game that the players (especially the younger ones) thought the game was over at halftime

 

[yanks11pm]

1. If you've been gambling for more than a week, you will know that a sure thing does not exist.

2. I doubt this will hit. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see PSU ruin this one for you.

I know sure things don't exist hahaa but in my mind Penn St. will not win by more than 41pts. i think they win 35-7 or 45-10.

 

[Mr.CantstopWontstop]

psu will deliver to their home crowd, last week was a tea party. 52 - 10 you lose by 1. jkjk

 

[yanks11pm]

41-0 at half and once again PSU scores zero in the 2nd half

 

[GoForIt]

41-0 at half and once again PSU scores zero in the 2nd half

It wouldn't suprise me.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

13 pt. teasers are -EV. Teasers in general are -EV.

BOL though.

They are TRIPLE -EV in college football too.

 

[ripthebook]

i love these games guys:
over 41 va tech
tulane to cover at home
michigan will play hard for the win at home
georgia also home vs unimpressive scar
under 47 usc defensive game, rushing game plan
ncar vs weak conn

 

[yanks11pm]

They are TRIPLE -EV in college football too.

wats EV mean?

 

[bigwillokc]

I know sure things don't exist hahaa but in my mind Penn St. will not win by more than 41pts. i think they win 35-7 or 45-10.

Then why not change it to PSU -15?

 

[bigtendominator]

so I know not alot of ya'll like Teasers, but this one WILL definitely hit.

promise.

Clemson +18½
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Thu@7:45p
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Syracuse +41½
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@12:00p
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Oklahoma State -2
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@3:30p
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Utah -1
Football - College Lines - Point Spread
Sat@10:30p
<!-- Display point buy options --> (Teased 13.0 points)

<!-- filename = /sportsbook/riskWinBlockPrint.jsp -->Risked US$ 1,200.00 to win US$ 1,000.00

Why pick 4 games, when you pick just one?

Also, teasers in college are a waste of money. Eventually, you will find that there is too much disparity in college and teasers can easily collapse.

 

[NYOrange]

I thought going against Syracuse was last weeks big fad? And that didn't turn out so well.

 

[Furmanski]

wats EV mean?

Expected Value. When you place a bet, there should bet an expected value in each. Teasers are -EV, otherwise you wouldn't have to win 2,3,4 or 5 games to win a bet that is only worth $100 on $110 bet.

Quick writeup on EV and sports betting that I found.

http://www.sportsbettingexpert.org/best-sports-betting-tips.html




Dull or not, money management is one of the most important aspects of successful sports betting. The fundamental problem with betting on sports is the following: if one doesn't bother seeking out some sort of hidden value to secure a positive EV on the bet, the negative EV that comes with regular betting will kill your bankroll anyway.

If you do act on positive EV, variance will still hit you, despite the fact that in the long-run you'll probably do just fine. Therefore, what you need to focus on (if all other aspects of your handicapping and hidden value tracking are ok), is that your bankroll should last long enough for the effects of the positive EV to be felt.

For that, you need bankroll management.

Most specialists will tell you that betting 2-3% of your entire bankroll on any single match-up is the way to go about it. They also add that if you truly feel strongly about one particular game, you might go as high as 5% on it, but never more.

That way, you'll make sure your bankroll lasts long enough even if a losing streak happens to hit you.

Take losing streaks into account and don't let them set you off-balance psychologically. There's nothing worse than chasing after losses and over-betting games when on a winning run.

Surviving the grind and being successful at locating value is what it's all about. Why did I say that plain square betting was a negative EV affair? For that, you first need to understand what EV (expected value), also known as mathematical expectation is.

If you and I both bet $1 on a coin-flip (which is a 50-50 event) we'd be facing 0 EV. If I bet $2 against your $1 on the same coin flip, you'd have a net profit of $1 on every pair of bets, which means you'd have a mathematical expectation of $0.5 on every bet we make. That's your positive EV right there. While it doesn't guarantee you that I will not win 10 bets in a row, it does guarantee that over the long-run you'll take all my money away.

That's how square betting works too. The bookmaker always balances his lines to get an equal number of bettors on both its sides (so that he can make money risk-free). In the process though, he induces negative EV (for the bettor that is) into most of his lines. The spread makes sure the game is pretty much turned into a coin-flip (after all, that's why they take points away from the favorite and add them to the underdog: to even things up). While in practice it's impossible to attain, a perfectly balanced match-up is a coin-flip indeed. If you win, you'll get the money you wagered, plus the money some other unlucky loser wagered minus the wig. That means you'll always be laying the line, betting a certain amount of money to win a little bit less.

If you bet on the money-line, the spread won't be there to even things up. Well, guess what, the bookmaker will still turn it into a coin-flip by offering you miserable returns on the fav, and fabulous ones on the underdog.

Every match-up needs to be turned into something close to a coin-flip, otherwise the industry won't be able to function anymore.

Locating positive EV is still possible though. Even though the mechanisms the bookmaker uses to balance his match-ups seem flawless, they sometimes backfire. Let's consider the following scenario: a very hot team plays a powerful underdog on the road. In this situation, square money will often flow in on the favorite in a disproportional manner. That tips the balance the bookie's created, and he'll rush to right things. He'll most probably do that by shifting his lines around a bit to make the other side look more attractive, and thus to bring in money on the other side too.

Sure, sometimes he will decide to cover the square bets himself, but you need to look for the situation when he decides the risk isn't worth it. In that case, hidden value appears on the side of the underdog (which in this situation is a pretty good choice statistically-speaking). Because the negative EV is really small, it only takes that much to tip the scales in the sharp bettors' favor. The conclusion is, you need to take advantage of your fellow bettors to secure some EV+ for yourself, and that's exactly what sharps are so good at.

 

[yanks11pm]

Then why not change it to PSU -15?

thanks for clearing that up Furman! and i dont wanna take that because of what happened last week. Say the score is 28-7 at half and PSU blows again in the 2nd half and final is 34-20 then i'm screwed.

 

[bigwillokc]

good luck with your bet....

 

[GoSooners]

I don't think Syracuse is safe at any number. hno:

 

[jbragg10]

yea ... Syracuse is the game that scares me on this card. The rest look very solid