I believe that 1 point difference in NBA 1st quarters is a profitable middle

[DannyMay]

I am starting to think if you can find a 1 point difference in the NBA first quarter bets you will have a long term winner. These are very easy to find.

1st Quarter over 45 -110
1st Quarter under 46 -110

Break even point is obviously hitting 1 out of 10 ( 0r 1 out of 20 if the numbers have halfs on them 45 1/2 vs 46 1/2 )

If we assume that 80 % of the time the total will fall between 35 and 55 ( I think thats a fair assumption ), then each of the 20 numbers lying between 35 and 55 would be assigned a 4 % likelihood of occurence ( 80 % / 20 = 4 % each ). Going by this, having 2 numbers would give you an 8% chcnce of hitting. However, of course the numbers toward the middle of 35-55 would be more likely to occur than the outside numbers. Surely, 45 will occur more often than 35. Since it is the 2 middle numbers that you have I am guessing their likelihood of occurence is at least 6 % each for a total of 12 % which makes this a profitable long term middle with just a 1 point difference and laying full -110 juice on both. Am I missing something here ? I seem to see 1 point differences all the time. I have an over 44 1/2 and under 46 on the same game today. ( Miami / New York )

 

[UWinSports]

Looks good. But its not gambling.

 

[mvbski]

you are the man

,the only problem is I hope others dont see this thread and realize it I have been doing the same and hvve shown a small win doing this

 

[mvbski]

I would rather play this than gamble on the NBA

 

[D2bets]

I think 1 pt diff w/-110 both ways is just a little weak IMO. Not quite sure about the 6% figure. Maybe 4-5%. 1.5 points for sure is golden, but 1.0 is a little weak. If you can find a decent # of the 1.5 pters like you got why take a chance with the 1 pointers. You need a 5% chance per # for the 1 pointer but only a 3.33% chance for the 1.5 pointer. Huge huge difference of course.

And whether it's gambling or not, who cares. If it's WINNING, that's what matters. I don't know about some of you guys, but I'd perfer to win rather than gamble. Maybe that's just me (and Danny

)

 

[mvbski]

I am here to make money to, the hell with gambling,what also makes this a good play I think is the way the scoring is going this year you just dont see them having huge quarters wich should keep the scoring closer to thr number

 

[UWinSports]

"I would rather play this than gamble on the NBA"

I totally agree. If one cant pick winners this is the way to go.

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by mvbski:
I am here to make money to, the hell with gambling,what also makes this a good play I think is the way the scoring is going this year you just dont see them having huge quarters wich should keep the scoring closer to thr number<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

110% on the money MVB!

One of these times we have to disagree on something.

 

[D2bets]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by AnthonyRichkas:
_"I would rather play this than gamble on the NBA"_

I totally agree. If one cant pick winners this is the way to go.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Even if one can pick winners, why not do both? Surely one that can pick winners would have enough cash on hand to have his cake and eat it too.

 

[DannyMay]

D2bets,

Yes I agree about the 1 1/2 points, but that doesnt seem to be so easy to find. I seem to find a lot of 1 point differences, but usually I cant find the 1 1/2. I have been passing on the 1 point middles, but lately have been thinking that they may be worth a shot as well. I am going to start trying them just to see how that works out.

 

[lander]

D2 hit it on the head

Fuk pride, my wallet is more important

 

[DannyMay]

Richkas,

If I can find a 1 1/2 point difference every day in the NBA I will bet the limit ( usually $1100 to win $1000 ). If I can find this every day, by months end I will show a nice profit. Maybe even a $1200 profit by months end. However, I would never be able to risk $1000 on a game because I dont bet that high ( when I am middling I can bet $1100 to win $1000 on both sides because 1 is guaranteed to win, thus I am only risking $100) but I wont risk $1100 on a game. When I bet games I usually bet $55 to win $50 , so lets say I just start gambling instead of middling. In order to make the same $1200 I could make middling, If I am betting 5 games a day at $55 to win $50 I need to go 90-60 to make the same $1200 profit. I can pick winners, but usually not at a 60 % rate.

 

[D2bets]

Interesting, I think it's this difference in mindset that separates a lot of the winners from losers. Why do you think half of the sportsbook ads that you hear have that same line, something to the effect of "You're always bragging to your friends that you can pick the winners in the big games, well here's your chance to prove it". It's that macho bravado player that the books are trying to attract. Ask yourself, why might that be?

 

[DannyMay]

Originally posted by AnthonyRichkas:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Looks good. But its not gambling. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Richkas,

If you find this middle

Over 45 -110
Under 46 -110

This can be converted into a prop play like this


Will there be EXACTLY 45 or 46 points scored in the first quarter

YES +1000

Therefore, it IS gambling.

 

[D2bets]

Danny is a winner. Give him a year or two and he'll be a BIG winner. Guaranteed. (Just stay away from those -50000000 easy chalks)

 

[DannyMay]

Yeah, no more big chalks. Just hoping for 45 or 46 points in the 1st quarter of the Knicks game tonight. 45 would be great, but 46 wouldnt be too shabby either.


Also, bet the game under 178 for $50.

 

[D2bets]

Danny, I'll be rooting with ya on that one as well. How 'bout some good fortune for 50.5 to 52 for Seattle's first quarter also.

 

[DannyMay]

Yes, Good Luck to you as well.

New York 1st Quarter 45 points

Seattle 1st Quarter 51 points

Would make for a nice New Years Eve party tommorow night.

Good Luck.

 

[Zapster]

D-May.....

Interesting logic. The key, of course, is somehow calculating the odds of those one or two middle numbers coming up. The 35-55 you use is very general. If Detroit is playing Indy it is more like 31-46 and if Dallas is playing Sacto it is more like 48-65. So I'd say your "80% range" for any one particular game is closer to 15 points....and may well be more like 85%. If 15 numbers come up 85% of the time, each number (making then equal) is 5.67%.

It doens't make a difference in the long run if the halfs are involved. You win twice as much on 45.5/46.5 than you do on 45-46 since it's win/win vs win/push....but you are shooting for one number vs. two of course.

I'd be very curious to see how you do with this. I suspect that if you are wrong, you aren't wrong by much. I will watch for these middles myself.

 

[mvbski]

D2,looks like we shop at the same stores I have the same play