Why is he nuts?
You said it yourself:
"No way UB wins this game..."
"It will not happen, trust me UB is the worst DIV I team I have ever seen."
So your friend will earn 3% on his money for an automatic (according to you) win.
Some people NEVER bet big moneylines. But as far as I'm concerned, value is value. If you saw -7000 on the Packers against Grover High School, wouldn't the Packers be a good value?