I am HUGE - Week 3 picks

[iamhuge]

Could be making a big mistake this week…going on the road with all 5 games…we’ll see:

Cincinnati +4 MIAMI OH – The Bearcats have beaten Miami straight up 10 times in a row. This year they are getting points. They actually played Michigan pretty tough last week…and their defense played particularly well. Even though they lost 36-14, Michigan scored 9 points very late in the game with a safety and a pick 6. Playing Miami OH will be a big step down in class, and they will be hungry for a win. Miami already lost this year to Marshall (31-26) a team ranked lower than the Bearcats.


Georgia Tech -2 UCF – The Yellow Jackets had 655 yards of offense against Tennessee in week 1 and lost the game by one point, despite having 2 critical turnovers. Meanwhile the George O’Leary Liars had a body bag game against FIU and then have been worrying all week about Irma. The coaches wives are yelling at their husbands because they have no air conditioning in their house. All of the player’s girlfriends have no power in their house, so they can’t go over there and play video games after practice. Should be an easy GT win against a very distracted inferior opponent.

Lsu -6.5 MISS ST – The Bulldogs have been lighting it up, scoring an average of 53 ppg against the likes of Charleston Southern and LA Tech. Not so fast my friend. This week, they’ll be facing a real defense. LSU shutout a normally potent BYU team and did not allow them past their own 47 yd line. Guice will have a big day running the ball, taking the Bulldog crowd out of the game early.

Air force +25.5 MICHIGAN – Obviously Michigan is going to win this game. Air Force is going to keep running the option no matter what the score is. They had a week off and this will be a HUGE game for them. If they can run over 80 plays, Michigan won’t have enough time to cover. Michigan is averaging 35 points per game. That means the Falcons only a touchdown and a field goal to cover. If Air Force can play a clean game, and get 1 turnover, they shouldn’t have any problem here taking all of these points.

Virginia tech -22.5 ECU – I Googled the definition of horror show and found ECU’s defense on the front page search. The Pirates D has given up over 600 yards of offense in each of their first two games, against James Madison (ugh) and West Virginia, losing by 36 points to WVU. Oh, by the way, Virginia Tech beat West Virginia in Week 1. Laying the wood and taking the Hokies.

 

[solrosenberg]

Totally disagree with you on Air Force. That Michigan defense in terms of speed and athleticism is gonna be something like they won't see all year. They won't be able to practice for it as they don't have defenders to replicate this. Their running game is gonna look a LOT like Florida's - half yard gains up the middle, getting ambushed by a posse of Wolverines on sweeps and a lot of punts. Their only chance to stay in the number is punt return TDs or a pick 6 or two (Wilton Speight is totally capable of that). Otherwise this is a 41 to 3 caliber wipeout.

 

[iamhuge]

Totally disagree with you on Air Force. That Michigan defense in terms of speed and athleticism is gonna be something like they won't see all year. They won't be able to practice for it as they don't have defenders to replicate this. Their running game is gonna look a LOT like Florida's - half yard gains up the middle, getting ambushed by a posse of Wolverines on sweeps and a lot of punts. Their only chance to stay in the number is punt return TDs or a pick 6 or two (Wilton Speight is totally capable of that). Otherwise this is a 41 to 3 caliber wipeout.

Fair enough Sol...best of luck to you as well.

 

[Skeeter123]

That Ga Tech/UCF writeup is greatness ��

I think you're right on with most of them...like AF as well.

Good luck this week.

 

[solrosenberg]

Iamhuge, appreciate the classy response. There aren't many of those on the internet. Sorry man not trying to bust your balls, just trying to save you some money. Good luck to you. Hopefully Speight pukes up enough turnovers to make this a winner for you.

 

[iamhuge]

UCF game cancelled...

For my replacement pick, I am taking Illinois +18 against USF because USF has not distinguished themselves in covering this spread against weaker opponents (won by 20 against San Jose St and won by 14 against Stony Brook). Illinois is
much better than both of those teams, and they are only giving up 14 points per game with a 2-0 record. True, USF is playing at home in Tampa tomorrow night..way too many distractions this week in FL for good practices out of Charlie Strong, who was very inconsistent at Texas. Gimmeee the Illini plus all those points!

 

[InsightMike]

Could be making a big mistake this week…going on the road with all 5 games…we’ll see:

Cincinnati +4 MIAMI OH – The Bearcats have beaten Miami straight up 10 times in a row. This year they are getting points. They actually played Michigan pretty tough last week…and their defense played particularly well. Even though they lost 36-14, Michigan scored 9 points very late in the game with a safety and a pick 6. Playing Miami OH will be a big step down in class, and they will be hungry for a win. Miami already lost this year to Marshall (31-26) a team ranked lower than the Bearcats.



Virginia tech -22.5 ECU – I Googled the definition of horror show and found ECU’s defense on the front page search. The Pirates D has given up over 600 yards of offense in each of their first two games, against James Madison (ugh) and West Virginia, losing by 36 points to WVU. Oh, by the way, Virginia Tech beat West Virginia in Week 1. Laying the wood and taking the Hokies.

You are correct that the Bearcats have won 10 straight in this series....Those 10 wins came in 10 different years involving 20 different teams.....This specific match-up coming up Saturday is all that is relevant....

I will give Cincys defense credit......They did not get destroyed like everyone was predicting.........They gave up 422 YDS of offense but Michigan did cough up the ball twice, had they not Michigan easily scores 40+ ............The Cincinnatti offense was awful in this game...Only 200YDS of total offense...They were fortunate to put up 14.

There is no question the Redhawks are a step down in competition but at the same time they are a better team than the Bearcats , playing better football than the Bearcats and they are at home.

Also - I am not saying the Redhawks are a much better team or will blow the Bearcats out but its much more likely than the opposite.

Cincinnatti was 4-8 last season......I will admit that AAC is a stronger division than the MAC in which Miami, OH plays in BUT Cincinnatti went 1-7 in CONF play.

Miami went 6-6 last season but they did not get their starting QB Gus Ragland back from injury until week 7 of last season.....They finished the season 6-0 after he came back from injury.

The Redhawks did lose to Marshall in the season opener but Marshall did not outplay them

Redhawks out gained them 429 to 267 YDS
Marshall ran back 2 kickoff returns and returned a INT to account for 21 of 31 of Marshalls points.....Thats hard to overcome especially for a road team....

That was the only regular season game the Redhawks have lost since QB Gus Ragland returned from injury.....The other loss was a 1 pt loss to MISS ST in last seasons bowl game.

Redhawks QB Gus Ragland is 7-2 as a starter with with 25 TDS and only 2 INTS (two losses were to Marshall and MISS ST)

Bearcats Hayden Moore has not put up close to those numbers on a losing team.....24 TDS / 20 INTS


I think Miami right now is the better team on both sides of the ball and have a huge advantage at QB...........With that being said Miami does not have an explosive offense and I see a somewhat close low scoring game........

 

[solrosenberg]

Time to eat crow, the game was a no play for me but iamhuge your analysis of Air Force was spot on correct.
Nice job

 

[iamhuge]

Time to eat crow, the game was a no play for me but iamhuge your analysis of Air Force was spot on correct.
Nice job

It's nice to get lucky. I wouldn't want to bet against Michigan when they have a good day.

 

[iamhuge]

3-2 on the week....11-4 for the year 73%