im a huge Reds fan but i dont see them winning the NL or WS.
the problems are:
cordero - dusty insists on having him close. he WILL blow at least one game in the postseason. if he got hurt id feel better, then masset or maybe chapman could close.
Rolen - Votto is the league MVP but Rolen is the team MVP, the w/l difference with and without him in the lineup is crazy. but hes due for injury, hes been healthy almost a whole month now. i love watching him play but theres no way he plays out the season. his back or hammy or pinky toe will flare up. if i knew hed play every game in the postseason id like the Reds chances a lot better
2 huge holes in the lineup - Stubbs and Gomes. Stubbs is absolutely clueless against good pitchers he will K 3-4 times every game against a Oswalt or Hudson or Latos etc. Gomes just sucks. take away his the month of may and hes batting maybe 220. wtf he doin batting 5th i dunno. he has to be the worst defensive LF in the league.
and the main problem : they really struggle against top of the rotation pitchers and in the postseason i think a team like the Philles, Padres or DRays could sweep em. watch this weekends series with the Cards. Carpenter and Wainwright are two sure losses. the Reds have as much or more pitching depth that any team in baseball but in postseason play teams use 2-3 aces and thatll bite the Reds
gl though - i sure hope you win