I am actually down a little with my betting hockey w/dumb local

[Doug]

Probably not a great dog year. Here's Sherwood's record, he bets dogs, did better last year.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=general_text vAlign=top colSpan=5>2005-6 Record 148-170-1 (+77.10 units) </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=5>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_heading vAlign=top align=left width="50%"><!--LEAGUE ABBREVIATION-->National Hockey League<!--end LEAGUE ABBREVIATION--></B> picks for:<!--end DATE-->:
</TD><TD class=rs_heading vAlign=top align=right width="10%">W</TD><TD class=rs_heading vAlign=top align=right width="10%">L</TD><TD class=rs_heading vAlign=top align=right width="10%">P</TD><TD class=rs_heading vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+/-</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">0.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">26</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">31</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+5.09 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since October 2006)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">125</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">162</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">19</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+9.26 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SSI]

Doug, good to see Sherwood got in the black........

i am well aware of how he plays....... glad it turned to the positive for him....

 

[Iceman]

Just got back and read this. I have 3 locals and 2 take hockey.

The 1st local is the 1 posted orginally aboout and he had no juice. I got him from poster Betedgeonly. He was almost -1.5/+1 on everyone but only takes $100 a game.

I then called my other local who was booking these with juice and because he was giving $300 a bet and I didn't have to share it (betedge with other local for $50 each) I decided to go with the local #2. He has different lines also, some -2.5/+2, etc..

I will post tonites. I have been betting $200-300 a bet with him. I thru a few (less than 10 total) bad ones(favorites) for $100 a piece out there at the beggining to keep him honest but decided to go for the throat last week or so.

I am sure I am doing these correctly. I have last nites info if someone has the true lines. Here they are

WASHINGTON +2 -330/+300
PHILADELPHIA +2 -330/+300
CHICAGO +1.5 -220/+200
UNDER 5.5 CHICAGO -220/+200
EDMONTON +1.5 -330/+300
LA KINGS +1 -220/+200

Granted this was a real bad nite but as you can see the edges are huge, right? Am I missing something or is this just bad variance?

True lines of these bets are -140+ or so.

 

[Iceman]

Okay here are tonite lines from him:

Atlanta -1 /.5 (6)

Carolina -2.5/+2 (6.5)

Boston -1/+.5 (6)

Ottawa -1.5/+1 (6)

Tampa Bay -1.5/+1 (5.5)

NY Isles -1/.5 (6.5)

Detroit -2.5/+2 (5.5)

Minnestoa -2.5/+2 (5)

Calgary -1.5/+1 (5.5)

Anaheim -2/+1.5 (5.5)

Totals are parenthesis and all lines are -110 for everything. A push on a total is a tie but on a game is a push, no loss of any money on the side pushes. The +.5 is worthless as it is final score including O.T.

I would and will play :

Washington +2
under 6.5 Washington
New Jersey +1
under 5.5 New Jersey
Columbus +2
St.Louis +2
Nashville +1
Phoenix +1.5

toss up on Florida, and a few totals like under 5.5 Calgary and over 5.5 Anaheim. What am I missing.

I swear to you, I was up about $1,00 within first week but have lost that and am now down about 1,000 with him. Just wondering if I am seeing this wrong. The edge to me is huge for -110, right. This is how I bet with all sports and a -120+ line that you can get -110 is great and these are way better.

 

[Iceman]

bet all the above. Except the total of the Washington.

 

[Doug]

The guy must be dumb and lazy, you'll get him.

The line of dog +.5 is stupid unless for regulation only, the total losing on a push is crazy esp. for hockey.

He must not book much hockey, and tries to make every game close to the same.

Is baseball done like this to ?

 

[Iceman]

The guy must be dumb and lazy, you'll get him.

The line of dog +.5 is stupid unless for regulation only, the total losing on a push is crazy esp. for hockey.

He must not book much hockey, and tries to make every game close to the same.

Is baseball done like this to ?

This was kind of my point with hockey, is that baseball is not booked in my town. I have known of 5 locals in my town and only 1 has ever took baseball.

I haven't spoke much to local on why he/they go about this way of booking hockey bets but it is obvious to me that moneylines confuse everyone because they never book with them. I think the whole -110 thing makes it cleaner for everyone involved.

When I called my degenerate buddy who has bet hockey for years with my 1 local, he strongly advised me that I shouldn't bet because I would lose. I laughed and tried hard to explain to him the edge I had was huge but he just did not grasp it. In fact a few bettors I know asked me what I knew about hockey? I in turn said nothing but I do know enough to know a good bet when I see one.

So far I have proved nothing and it pisses me off but like one poster said when 16 striaght favs have won (some didnt cover) than I am not going to win. Not the least bit worried and still excitied but this is more about beatng this snake of a bookie who has alot of rules setup in his favor. I have jokingly said in the past this guy has a deal with devil and that is how he keeps customers and he wins. I want to shove it down his throat before the end of the year but I am running out of time.

The worst part is I can guarantee you that no one involved with him and including himself have no idea what is going on with this and how off the numbers are. He is not that smart when it comes to this. Like I said, the other local I have used does this the same way but almost 90% of the games are lines -1.5/+1 with zero juice but says he doent have hardly any NHL bettors. These guys dont comprehend moneylines believe it or not.

I am almost embarassed I have lost to him (1st time I have been behind in the 3 weeks I have done it was after last nite) but nothing I can do but make the bets and let the results come in. Some of these bets are close to 60% plays for -110.

 

[betedgeonly]

This thing encourages bets on the dogs 90% of the time. Favorites will most likely win until the end of the season. The bookie might not be that dumb.

This offer would be a goldmine during early and mid-season though.

how and why will the fav win all the time? it does not make sense to me. what am i not understanding here? with the lines we are getting which average around -140 or better and we are paying -110 why should we not bury this guy?

 

[Iceman]

how and why will the fav win all the time? it does not make sense to me. what am i not understanding here? with the lines we are getting which average around -140 or better and we are paying -110 why should we not bury this guy?

It will happen. Unless I am missing something, just need to run it thru a couple hundred times.

 

[Doug]

You could beat him at -125, just a lot less bets.

 

[WVU]

the problem is as soon as you catch up and start to get ahead a bit he will cut you off from betting these.

 

[Iceman]

the problem is as soon as you catch up and start to get ahead a bit he will cut you off from betting these.

I have thought that but I am only down like $800 and when you are betting 2-300 a game you can catch up quick.

He is cocky/confident and has booked this way (from what I heard) for years. He will not cut me off. I will most likely run out of time before I get too far ahead.

Looking at the bright side now that I have struggled he has no clue and hopefully he will have this offer up next year.

 

[WVU]

good luck you may make up all that ground on tonight's games

 

[winbet]

The consensus on here all the time is a local hasnt a clue what he's doing, while that may be the case for some, others can be smarter than you think. Outside loan shark types that service Council estates and have percentages accordingly, the rest have to get money by offering over the odds. With that being the situation they pick their poison and acknowledge their running one horse books.:drink:

 

[Iceman]

went 4-2 last nite. Will post tonites lines in a few.

 

[SENDITIN]

Ice,

You will torch the guy in the long run....I've been tossed out by several locals playing similar stuff. Funniest one was the guy who thought I was a smart ass and actually INCREASED the amount I could play. After some hesitation...wink wink...I said...uhhhhh OK and proceeded to butcher him. WVU is right though you will be cutoff at some point so plan on it!

 

[Iceman]

Ice,

You will torch the guy in the long run....I've been tossed out by several locals playing similar stuff. Funniest one was the guy who thought I was a smart ass and actually INCREASED the amount I could play. After some hesitation...wink wink...I said...uhhhhh OK and proceeded to butcher him. WVU is right though you will be cutoff at some point so plan on it!

Maybe next year but not this year. I have bet with this guy for over 10 years and because of his shit rules and my weak past I am down a good chunk of change. This guy is quite arrogant and cocky but very friendly. Will be very surprised he admits to losing without thinking this is just a losing stretch he is going thru. He will just consider it the give and take that most good locals know they have to have to keep good paying customers happy. Just not enough time in the season to hurt him.

Will keep you posted as you and I know the math will eventually work itself out. Just a matter of time.

Tonites plays:
Toronto +1.5
over 5.5 Chicago
Edmonton +1.5
under 5.5 Dallas
Dallas +1.5

 

[Iceman]

Highlight of my gambling year today:

This hockey bookie also does baseball totals at all -110 odds (dont ask I know) he says it makes it simpler for his clients. Well after some bad hockey luck (which is ok as it leaves open next year) he told me he was done today with taking baseball.

Beting $100-200 a bet I have beat him close to 4k betting baseball totals. Said he wants the rest of summer off before the football rush. Still dont think he gets it but I think he is starting to think he is doing something wrong.

One thing we should all learn is if you have an edge than you will eventually win. Just stick to it. It took close to 350 (estimate) bets but I got him. Not sure if this is a good day as I lost a great out but we move on.