And many Tennessee bettors I know are all over Florida as well
I've been lurking on this forum a bit and really enjoy the insight people bring, so I figured when I saw a line that was against Tennessee that I felt strongly about, I should speak up.
I have already bet Florida +7 as a 20U bet, yes you read that right. Partly because this is an emotional hedge as I will be at the game, and partly because I really believe this line should be close to EVEN. I will likely make a moneyline bet on Florida as well once that comes out for another 5U to 10U.
Here are the reasons I like Florida
1. The streak. Florida has won so many in a row, they are in our heads. Every Tennessee fan wants this game and the pressure on our players will be tremendous. Historically this has not been a team that thrives under pressure, they thrive when there are low expectations (see Georgia last year).
2. Our offensive line. We are 3 games in and have not settled on a consistent starting 5 in our offensive line. Meanwhile, Florida has one of the best pass rushes in the country. This is a recipe for disaster in our passing game, which we will need if our running game becomes stagnant or we get behind early.
3. Luck. So far Tennessee has fumbled the ball 11 times and only lost 1 of those. Eventually, the luck will run out, we cannot keep putting the ball on the field.
4. Injuries. Last game we suffered injuries to our star CB, Cam Sutton, who is out for the year. Our star LB, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who sat out the second half but will attempt to play. And we also have injuries from previous games to Darrin Kirkland (our second best LB) and Chance Hall (would start at RT if healthy). Both Kirkland and Hall are doubtful for the game.
5. Secondary and LB. The injuries to Sutton, Reeves-Maybin, and Kirkland have yet to be exposed. Sutton's backup is a freshman, Baylen Buchanan, who played well in the second half of Ohio, but did not get the starting nod vs Florida. Instead it will be Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley, two players who have been very shaky and drawn a lot of penalty flags. Behind JRM there is some depth with Cortez McDowell, but Kirkland's injury is the real concern. Replacing Kirkland is Colton Jumper, a mediocre former walk-on who consistently misses tackles. Some have suspected he's only starting because his father is a big UT booster, but that's a pretty out there rumor.
6. Our defensive line. The defensive line is solid, we thought it would be one of the strengths of our defense. I only mention it because the perceived weakness of the Florida offense is their offensive line. Our defensive line, vs App St, Virginia Tech, and Ohio U has struggled to get consistent pressure on the QB. They did look decent in the second half vs Ohio, but the Ohio offense overall was severely winded from being on the field so much.
7. Coaching. Tennessee fans are livid about our offensive playcalling. While we have multiple electric playmakers, we have not consistently used them to their ability. The talent is tremendous, the playcalling is not. Against a ferocious Florida defense, this is not a good sign.
I believe Vegas is giving us a chance because they think with as much talent as we have, our coaches cannot mess this up, but they don't know Butch Jones and his staff. Looking at this game objectively, removing any fandom, I cannot see my Vols winning.
These are my own personal opinions on the game, do your own research before you bet. In my opinion, Florida w/ the points is a statistically VERY good bet. I would liken it to having the best hand in Poker post-flop, but there's an inside straight/flush draw on the board. The correct play is to bet big, that is statistically the best play at that point in time. But as we all know, there are bad players who are going to chase that draw on the turn and river. That's Tennessee to me. Sometimes they get you, but more often than not you take their money. The play right now is post-flop, and Florida has the best hand, Tennessee is chasing.
I've been lurking on this forum a bit and really enjoy the insight people bring, so I figured when I saw a line that was against Tennessee that I felt strongly about, I should speak up.
I have already bet Florida +7 as a 20U bet, yes you read that right. Partly because this is an emotional hedge as I will be at the game, and partly because I really believe this line should be close to EVEN. I will likely make a moneyline bet on Florida as well once that comes out for another 5U to 10U.
Here are the reasons I like Florida
1. The streak. Florida has won so many in a row, they are in our heads. Every Tennessee fan wants this game and the pressure on our players will be tremendous. Historically this has not been a team that thrives under pressure, they thrive when there are low expectations (see Georgia last year).
2. Our offensive line. We are 3 games in and have not settled on a consistent starting 5 in our offensive line. Meanwhile, Florida has one of the best pass rushes in the country. This is a recipe for disaster in our passing game, which we will need if our running game becomes stagnant or we get behind early.
3. Luck. So far Tennessee has fumbled the ball 11 times and only lost 1 of those. Eventually, the luck will run out, we cannot keep putting the ball on the field.
4. Injuries. Last game we suffered injuries to our star CB, Cam Sutton, who is out for the year. Our star LB, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who sat out the second half but will attempt to play. And we also have injuries from previous games to Darrin Kirkland (our second best LB) and Chance Hall (would start at RT if healthy). Both Kirkland and Hall are doubtful for the game.
5. Secondary and LB. The injuries to Sutton, Reeves-Maybin, and Kirkland have yet to be exposed. Sutton's backup is a freshman, Baylen Buchanan, who played well in the second half of Ohio, but did not get the starting nod vs Florida. Instead it will be Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley, two players who have been very shaky and drawn a lot of penalty flags. Behind JRM there is some depth with Cortez McDowell, but Kirkland's injury is the real concern. Replacing Kirkland is Colton Jumper, a mediocre former walk-on who consistently misses tackles. Some have suspected he's only starting because his father is a big UT booster, but that's a pretty out there rumor.
6. Our defensive line. The defensive line is solid, we thought it would be one of the strengths of our defense. I only mention it because the perceived weakness of the Florida offense is their offensive line. Our defensive line, vs App St, Virginia Tech, and Ohio U has struggled to get consistent pressure on the QB. They did look decent in the second half vs Ohio, but the Ohio offense overall was severely winded from being on the field so much.
7. Coaching. Tennessee fans are livid about our offensive playcalling. While we have multiple electric playmakers, we have not consistently used them to their ability. The talent is tremendous, the playcalling is not. Against a ferocious Florida defense, this is not a good sign.
I believe Vegas is giving us a chance because they think with as much talent as we have, our coaches cannot mess this up, but they don't know Butch Jones and his staff. Looking at this game objectively, removing any fandom, I cannot see my Vols winning.
These are my own personal opinions on the game, do your own research before you bet. In my opinion, Florida w/ the points is a statistically VERY good bet. I would liken it to having the best hand in Poker post-flop, but there's an inside straight/flush draw on the board. The correct play is to bet big, that is statistically the best play at that point in time. But as we all know, there are bad players who are going to chase that draw on the turn and river. That's Tennessee to me. Sometimes they get you, but more often than not you take their money. The play right now is post-flop, and Florida has the best hand, Tennessee is chasing.
