Huge tuesday night play (huge news)

[Shot_Selection]

I'm telling you to hit this line hard and now before the news is out.

Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards -1.5

Yes, the Heat blew out the Wizards by 20 recently.
Yes, the Wizards are a horrible 1-6.
Yes, the Wizards have been riddled by injuries.

But...

Dwyane Wade is expected to miss the game with a sore ankle!!! Washington Post and Miami Herald both reported that he skipped practice to rest his ankle and is a game-time decision.

The Heat are playing back-to-back at Washington and then at home against Toronto and will probably skip the Wizards game to be better prepared. The Heat are still looking to increase home attendance and if Wade is not playing, attendance will drop. The Heat might also view this Wizards team as "beatable" without Wade, but will be mistaken.

Cook will prob. start in place of Wade and has been great off the bench with his ability to shoot the long ball, but that has not been proven when starting and playing longer minutes in the long run. Quinn and Banks will see playing time and though Quinn has a 3 pt shot, his is not able to create his own offense.

Wade is the only playmaker on this team which will make shots harder for the Heat.

I already pounded it putting my logic in thinking Wade won't play.

 

[Shot_Selection]

But Wade, who also leads the team in assists (7.3) and steals (2.6), is such a big part of that identity that the Heat is essentially an anonymous team when he's not on the court.
''We feed off everything he does,'' guard Chris Quinn said.
``Dwyane just makes everybody else's job out on the court that much easier because he commands so much attention.''
Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade might miss Tuesday's game

 

[LLXC13]

Knowing my luck, he will decide to play tomorrow.

 

[jordan17]

& u dont think the books, havent already adjusted the line? :think2:

 

[ham]

Here's my take - NEVER apply logic to the NBA. The best cappers here follow trends and employ statistical systems to select a winner.

If you applied solely logic to your NBA bets, you will lose more times than not. It's actually better to bet the other team, regardless of what rationality dictates.

 

[ham]

That said, my logic says Miami's gonna cover, so I would take Washington.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

ha, u dont think the books have this info? you read it in a newspaper. if the heat just won by 20 dont u think the line would be a little higher for miami if they though wade was playing?

 

[gabbana]

where did u come up with that -1.5 number...i see no line in this one ...
so my guess if wade is out spread would be wiz around -6.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

where did u come up with that -1.5 number...i see no line in this one ...
so my guess if wade is out spread would be wiz around -6.

it opened at WIZ -1.5, seeing -3 now

 

[gabbana]

Dwyane Wade G Prob Tues - Ankle - 11/17/08

 

[Shot_Selection]

Yes, true cappers use trends and stats in order to make their selection, but how can you use trends on a Heat team that is completely different this year from before.

The Heat have one road win game this year and it came against the Spurs with Parker getting injured during the game. Wade shot poorly in Toronto and was not able to elevate or balance himself with the bad ankle.

And yes, vegas probably has factored it in but does the public know? 54% of the public is on the Heat. I made this post last night. Once Wade is done with his shoot around, they will see if he is able to go but I highly doubt they risk him playing back to back nights early in the season.

And if the Heat beat the Wizards by 20 recently, why would they not be favored and actually given points? To me, simple logic would be to bet on the Heat. Analyzing the situation and knowing this Heat team on how they play, Wizards are the play.

 

[gabbana]

i guess the logic is exactly the other way ...vegas wants u to bet wizards that is why is the lne so low ...they want u to think its a revenge factor and wiz should def win this one..thats why its a stay away for me....gl if u decide to bet it.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

yes, if you go against logic wiz would have been the play. going against logic went 1-1 last night as SA covered and PHO lost.
read your post wrong. i though the heat were favored by 1.5

 

[KennyB]

I have found on many occasions that when a team's top player goes down the other players step up their game big time. This trend usually only works once. I can't tell you how many times I have seen an NBA game where a team is without their best player and the public loads the other team and the team missing their best player wins outright.

Be careful if you are betting this game based on Wade playing or not. Washington is bad and Miami always well against them.

I am not playing this game.

 

[Shot_Selection]

Gabbana,

It has been seen already throughout the season. Hawks at Nets, Hawks were favored by 3 and the Public took the Hawks: Nets won outright and in a blowout. Then, they play at Atlanta and ATL is favored by 10 points: Nets win outright again. That second play, logic would have you think the Nets were the play, but reverse logic would make you think the Hawks would blow them out and Vegas wants you to take the Nets points.

Maybe I used the wrong word in logic, but I am basing this pick on comparing how both teams play and matchups. I follow the Heat specifically and was at the blowout game. I could honestly say the Heat would not have won that game without Wade's playmaking ability and his speed. But here are some stats if Wade is not playing:

<table width="100%" bgcolor="#cccccc" border="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="2"><center>[SIZE=-1] [/SIZE]</center>
</td> <td colspan="3" bgcolor="#0000ff"><center>[SIZE=-2]Production[/SIZE]</center></td> <td colspan="3" bgcolor="#ff0000"><center>[SIZE=-2]On Court/Off Court[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffcc00"><center>[SIZE=-2]Roland[/SIZE]</center></td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#33cc33"> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Player[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Min[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Own[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Opp[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Net[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]On[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Off[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-2]Net[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffcc00"><center>[SIZE=-2]Rating[/SIZE]</center></td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="left"> [SIZE=-1]Wade[/SIZE]</td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1] 75%[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1] 35.6[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1] 11.1[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#efefef"><center>[SIZE=-1] +24.6[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1] +11.7[/SIZE]</center></td> <td><center>[SIZE=-1] -18.3[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#efefef"><center>[SIZE=-1] +30.1[/SIZE]</center></td> <td bgcolor="#99ff00"><center>[SIZE=-1] +26.0[/SIZE]</center></td></tr></tbody></table>
Wade is responsible for 75% of the Heat's scoring and production. When he is on the bench, the Heat are giving up points by a substantial amount. The next closest Roland rating is Quinn at +3.5!

Like I said, I am taking the bet big basing on Wade's probability of not playing. If he does, im still confident as the Heat have been horrid away with losses to:

Knicks by 5 (really was a blowout)
Bobcats by 12
Hornets by 10
Raptors by 12

Just trying to help :toast:

 

[yanni_gogolak]

yes, they are not as good w/o him. but i just ready that he expects to play tonight.

He sprained his right ankle late in Sunday's game and is hopeful the injury won't keep him out of the lineup on Tuesday.

Wade sat out of practice Monday with a sprained right ankle, but he said he intends to play in Tuesday's game against the Wizards.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/basketball/miami-heat/story/775422.html

 

[Th3xTrUtH]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/basketball/heat/sfl-flspheat18sbnov18,0,241857.story

hes a go.. dwade is determined to play all gms this season