Huge play for Sunday Dec 5th

[theDonger]

Thought I would share my thoughts on this game-- With the exception of Atlanta not covering the -9 yesterday, i've been pretty hot.

Need Green Bay to win to hit a 8 game (7 game since Atl pushed at -3) teaser

i'm going BIG on the Colts against Tennesee next week.

Colts at home, with extra time off to rest/prepare for their last place division rivals. Colts have scored 4+ in their last 4 games, that offense is on fire and I don't think Tennesse is going to keep it close. Saw the line go off at 10, and just moved to 10.5 recently. I bought the point -9.5 (-130)

Indy -9.5 24.7 units to win 19

Might add more if GB and Farve work their MNF magic tonight.

GL to all

 

[theDonger]

Adding again Indy -9.5 (-140) 16 units to win 11.5

 

[theDonger]

I also had a previous 2 team teaser NE -1 / INDY -4 5.5 units to win 5

 

[jwblue]

Is 40 units a lot for you to play on one game? What is your average units to play per game?

IS

 

[theDonger]

yes 40 units is a big play, i usually play between 3-10 units per game
depending on how confindent i feel on games of course

i honestly see no signs of this offense slowing down. Six of eight of their wins have come by 10 points or more--

Tennessee (since 10/11 when the beat GreenBay on MNF) Has scored an average of 16 points in their last 6 games.

Indy is still looking to clinch the division, home field advantage is still within grasp,.. i think they take the extra time off and come out strong at home against their last place division rival.

 

[jwblue]

McNair is hurting too, which strengthens the pick. Not sure if he will even play.

If your willing to put 4 times your usual # of units, I will lay a unit.

Thanks,

IS

 

[Bluesters]

This is also the 3rd straight road game for Tenn, love the Colts also.

 

[sneadmeister2]

If the Colts do win and cover they will be going against slew of strong trends favoring Tennessee 246-106 ATS favoring Titans.

Good Luck.

 

[theDonger]

If the Colts do win and cover they will be going against slew of strong trends favoring Tennessee 246-106 ATS favoring Titans.

Good Luck.

What trends? Besides that, I'm doing what I've been doing all year (with a high success rate) -- that is, picking the better team. If I had worried about trends etc,-- I would have been on the wrong side of the Thanksgiving day game with Indy/Detroit. Honestly I think the most important information going into the game is for the last 6 games:

Tenn. PPG = 16
Highest point total = 27

Indy PPG = 37
Highest point total = 49

Indy still has not clinched their division. They know how to beat this team-- they were 2-0 against Tenn last year. With Denver and SD comming at the end of the season, I think they will be focusing on getting the job done against weak division rivals.

ALSO, very important note, Tennesee RB - Chris Brown is still listed as Questionable with turf toe. I'd be suprised to see him come back this week and play a team on the turf and possibly reaggrivate the injury.

I think the Titans play the Colts tough for the first quarter -- but see the Colts rolling in the end-- by at least 10, possibly more. I like my 9.5

Good luck to everyone

 

[theDonger]

There's also speculation that McNair will NOT start on Sunday due to nagging injuries- sternum, ribcage, etc.

 

[GoFlamesGo!]

I like the pick. I'll be using it on a teaser as well

 

[sneadmeister2]

Tennessee is 16-4 Ats away off SU away loss
Tenn is 8-3 Ats as rd's in December
Fisher is 6-1 ats as dog in domes

Indy is 1-11 ats home vs. div. opp off an away game
Indy is 4-11 ats as favs of >6 vs. div

There are a lot more that add up to Tennessee favored in a 246-106 ats situation.

GL whatever side you choose.

Last week's Indy/Det game: Indy was favored 153-53 Ats.

 

[trench1978]

I think it's a good pick

I also like Indy in that game. It's the only game that looked like a decent bet (except maybe the Giants ML against the Skins).

I can imagine that there are trends going against the Colts here. After winning consistently and dominating the way they've been, they are due for a letdown. I think that they will have a letdown at some point, but it would be against a good team that scores against them and controls the clock. Something that the Patriots, Steelers, and Eagles have a good chance of doing ... but not the Titans.

I have recently only bet on teams that have the ability to "blow out" the other team. The teams with the big-time QBs and skill position players (PHI, IND, SD) along with pretty good defenses have the potential to blow teams out consistently. This seems especially true when these teams are focused or have been clicking and winning consistently.

Something that I have been doing is only betting on teams that I thought had a good chance to cover by at least 7 points. If you can do this consistently, then you won't have to worry about backdoor covers and garbage TDs ruining your otherwise winning bet. After the Eagles' wake-up call in a game against the Steelers, I bet on the Eagles the following 3 weeks going against 3 weak divisional opponents in DAL, NYG and WAS. The Eagles beat the spread by at least 7 points in all 3 games.

Now the Colts appear to be the same type of team. I haven't bet on them at all this year. I was thinking about the Thanksgiving day game, but I didn't pull the trigger. This week, though, I'm definitely pulling the trigger when they face Tennesse. Teams that are going to make the playoffs, are on a roll, and have everything to play for (PHI, IND, SD, ATL, NE, GB, DEN) often blow out teams that aren't going anywhere, have been losing recently, and have upper management problems (MIA, NO, CLE, WAS, ARI, TENN, OAK, SF) in the final few weeks of the regular season.

The Colts' offense is blazing hot and I can't imagine the Titans defense cooling it off. I'll give up 10 points and take the Colts this week.

Other games that look intriguing are:
(I like the team in bold)

Week 14
Oakland @ Atlanta
Miami @ Denver
Philadelphia @ Washington

Week 15
San Diego @ Cleveland
New England @ Miami

Week 16
Denver @ Tennesse
Atlanta @ New Orleans

Week 17
Green Bay @ Chicago
San Francisco @ New England

This methodology has been the most consistently successful for me since I've been betting. I only bet on favorites that I figure will blow out the opposition. If there's not a decent chance of a blowout, I don't risk it.

Anyway, I wrote way more than I ever envisioned, but there it is. Feel free to comment or ask questions...

Scott

 

[theDonger]

This methodology has been the most consistently successful for me since I've been betting. I only bet on favorites that I figure will blow out the opposition. If there's not a decent chance of a blowout, I don't risk it.

Funny, thats kinda how I see my betting patterns as well. I almost never take the dog unless I'm able to get alotta lotta points on a teaser (much like the +17 on Oakland last night). That was just one of those games I had a feeling about. I know over the course of this season, Oakland is just horrible-- but they've been playing well lately, which lead me to believe it would be close. That's the main reason for jumping all over this game (and jumping all over the thanksgiving day game Indy/Det)

The Titans are definately on a down swing-- and Indy has every reason to play hard and get the win. I think the Titans will play the Colts tough, but won't keep it within 10pts.

Good to know other people are thinking like I am on this one. Trends are fine and dandy when a game winner is hard to determine. However Indy is just the superior team and obvious choice for me.

The Philly@Wash and NE@SF games look interesting to me as well--

good luck to ya

 

[theDonger]

Update:

Steve McNair did not practice today-- Billy Volek took the reps and McNair watched on the sidelines.

Doesn't mean McNair won't start on Sunday, but, he's hurting.

 

[thecruncher]

Likely blowout. Sorgii in the 4th Q. = Under 55 as well.

 

[ElIguana]

That dude (McNair) has taken a beating. He said his wife has to massage him and doctor him every night--he is in so much pain he can't even sleep, and it has been this way for years. I don't blame him if he hangs it up.....a guy would like to be able to walk when he's 40.

 

[trench1978]

That dude (McNair) has taken a beating. He said his wife has to massage him and doctor him every night--he is in so much pain he can't even sleep, and it has been this way for years. I don't blame him if he hangs it up.....a guy would like to be able to walk when he's 40.

He should hang up the cleets after this year. He's always taken serious beatings in this league. It's a shame too, because last year was his best season and he could have had an even better career than he already has if he didn't get beat up so much.

There is life after football and he is probably starting to think about that. Considering the Titans don't appear to be getting any better, he won't even be won't be playing for much.

Scott

 

[ACE-ACE]

Adding again Indy -9.5 (-140) 16 units to win 11.5

I THINK YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE IN THIS GAME....BUT

YOU BEEN BETTING 3-10 UNIT A GAME NOW YOU ARE BETTING 40...IF YOU LOSE WILL THAT ONE GAME LOST MAKE YOU EVEN FOR THE YEAR.....YOU ARE GIVING THE BOOKIE A 50/50 TO TAKE YOUR BANKROLL ON ONE GAME.....IS THIS THE GAME YOU WANT TO MAKE A STAND WITH?......I DONT ??? THE GAME ......
I ??? THE AMOUNT...POOR MONEY MANAGEMENT GENENATES MORE LOSSES FOR PLAYERS THAN BAD HANDICAPPING......YOU NEED TO FIND A BETTER BOOK....IF I BUY THE HOOK...ITS 5%.....+ 5% ON THE GAME (-110) ITS CALL THE 105 CLUB....GUARDIAN HAS IT....

I WISH YOU LUCK.....

 

[Gamehendge]

Yeah, you can guarantee INDI will put up 30+ against just about any team out there. It's just a matter if the other team scores on the there lousy D.