How to bet the Daytona 500
A look at the best bets to take it all, as well as Danica Patrick's rising odds
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Who is the favorite to win Sunday's Daytona 500?
Ask 10 people and you might get 10 different answers. Checking around the sports books here in Las Vegas, there is no consensus, either, as several have Jimmie Johnson favored. Station Casinos has him co-favored with Dale Earnhardt Jr. (for whom the lowest odds can be found at the South Point), and Tony Stewart is the favorite at the William Hill network of books.
To break the tie, I decided to go to the guy who runs the biggest Daytona 500 future book in town at the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook: Ed Salmons. Well, figures aren't available as to who takes the most NASCAR bets, but I do know that the LVH has had its future book up the longest, as its posted it before the NASCAR Sprint Cup Awards were held here in town on Dec. 6. Salmons has seen more than 2½ month's worth of bets come across the screen on his desk, so, surely, he must know who the betting favorite will be.
Not so much.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]DAYTONA 500[/h](odds courtesy of LVH SuperBook)
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<!-- end inline 1 -->After the Budweiser Duel qualifying races on Thursday night, Salmons updated his odds and put six drivers as the co-favorites at 10-1: Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., Stewart, Matt Kenseth (who won Duel 1 on Thursday night), Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Earlier in the day, the LVH had those first five at 10-1, but Salmons lowered Hamlin from 12-1 to 10-1 after he won the second Duel and is trying to become the first to win Daytona's Unlimited, Duel and 500 in the same year.
"The Daytona 500 is the biggest NASCAR race of the year and has all the tradition, but it's the most wide-open race of the year," Salmons said. "As with most restrictor-plate racing, almost anyone in the field can win it.
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"Johnson shouldn't be 10-1, but a lot of the public doesn't know who to bet, so they just pick him because he's the king of NASCAR right now."
Those who bet that way got rewarded last year when Johnson won the 500 for the second time in his illustrious career and was available as high as 12-1 at the LVH. Salmons isn't giving as high of odds this year, but there are sure to be bettors who see 10-1 as value on the greatest driver of his generation. Kenseth and Hamlin were both 5-1 co-favorites in their respective races, so form held at Daytona, which will have many bettors looking at the favorites again.
After Salmons' six co-favorites, he has Stewart and 2012 Sprint Cup champ Brad Keselowski at 12-1, followed by a quartet at 15-1: Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano. The next grouping at 25-1 includes Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray.
Bowyer was last seen doing a 360-degree flip during the last-race crash in Budweiser Duel 2. He'll go to a backup car, but Salmons says that's not a reason to downgrade his chances.
"Back in the old days, you had teams that might have a clunker as a backup car and you'd be doomed, but at this level nowadays, the top teams' second car is every bit as good," Salmons said. "Johnson also wrecked his car, but you know his team will have him in a good car on Sunday, especially for a restrictor-plate race. I'm not raising the odds on any of the 12 drivers that crashed."
Austin Dillon is the pole sitter but only in the middle of the pack on the LVH's odds boards at 30-1.
"People make too much out of winning the pole," Salmons said. "Where you start in this race is immaterial."
That's pretty much backed up by looking at the opening odds from December, in which a lot of drivers are right where they were back then, including the opening co-faves of Johnson, Kyle Busch and Kenseth at 10-1 and Dillon, who was 30-1.
One high-profile driver whose odds have risen is Danica Patrick, who was 40-1 back in December and still there early this past week, but Salmons raised her to 50-1. Last year at this time, Salmons told me that the most tickets written on any driver was Patrick, so is the fact that he raised her odds a sign that we've seen the end of the sentimental tickets on NASCAR's female star?
"It's funny that you say that, because, yes, tickets on her are way down this year," Salmons said. "We still see some, but last year all those $10 and $20 tickets really added up to where she would have been a big loser for us. That's not the case this year."
So what does Salmons think of NASCAR legend Richard Petty's comments about Patrick? He wasn't going to bite, and in fact went back to his statement that anyone can win the Daytona 500 and that her chances aren't much worse (despite the disparity in odds) than a lot of the top contenders.
"She made a good run last year, and this is the type of race she could win by sticking around to the end and getting a little racing luck," he said. "She's led other races, too, so she could get a win by being on the lead when it starts to rain and the race doesn't resume. Never say never."
[h=3]Tuley's Take[/h]A lot of wiseguys pass on the Daytona 500 since it is such a wide-open race. There's no secret handicapping formula for figuring out the fastest car, and Salmons said it's likely that we'll have at least one big crash that takes out a lot of the field, so your pick could have the fastest car and just be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
But while I'm not going to go crazy, I still think we can formulate a betting strategy to try and take advantage of the randomness. Some auto-racing bettors like to bet multiple favorites since you can get some at nice prices, especially if you're able to shop around. For instance, let's say you bet $10 apiece on the six co-faves at the LVH at 10-1. If the winner came from that group, you'd collect $110 and a tidy $50 profit.
I'd rather take a shot and try for a bigger score. Let's go with a mythical $100 bankroll and see if we can turn a profit looking at just the odds at the LVH (this won't be far off from what I do for real, though I'll shop around for some better prices on individual drivers if I can find them).
$20 on Johnson at 10-1 (might be an underlay, but if it comes down to the final lap again, who would you rather have driving?)
$20 on Hamlin at 10-1 (hottest driver coming in; seems silly to leave him out)
$20 on Kevin Harvick at 12-1 (lost as the favorite last year; second in Duel 1 Thursday; should be in contention)
$10 on Biffle at 25-1 (flying under the radar, but he's got a shot)
$10 on Dillon at 30-1 (he was my long-shot pick last year, so maybe I was just a year too early)
$10 on Patrick at 50-1 (partly based on what Salmons said, and if she pulls it off, I want to say I had her)
$10 on Michael Waltrip at 50-1 (he doesn't race full time anymore and doesn't care about points, so if he's in contention, he's going to go for it all)
A look at the best bets to take it all, as well as Danica Patrick's rising odds
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Who is the favorite to win Sunday's Daytona 500?
Ask 10 people and you might get 10 different answers. Checking around the sports books here in Las Vegas, there is no consensus, either, as several have Jimmie Johnson favored. Station Casinos has him co-favored with Dale Earnhardt Jr. (for whom the lowest odds can be found at the South Point), and Tony Stewart is the favorite at the William Hill network of books.
To break the tie, I decided to go to the guy who runs the biggest Daytona 500 future book in town at the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook: Ed Salmons. Well, figures aren't available as to who takes the most NASCAR bets, but I do know that the LVH has had its future book up the longest, as its posted it before the NASCAR Sprint Cup Awards were held here in town on Dec. 6. Salmons has seen more than 2½ month's worth of bets come across the screen on his desk, so, surely, he must know who the betting favorite will be.
Not so much.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]DAYTONA 500[/h](odds courtesy of LVH SuperBook)
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| JIMMIE JOHNSON | 10-1 |
| KEVIN HARVICK | 10-1 |
| MATT KENSETH | 10-1 |
| KYLE BUSCH | 10-1 |
| DALE EARNHARDT JR | 10-1 |
| DENNY HAMLIN | 10-1 |
| TONY STEWART | 12-1 |
| BRAD KESELOWSKI | 12-1 |
| KASEY KAHNE | 15-1 |
| JEFF GORDON | 15-1 |
| KURT BUSCH | 15-1 |
| JOEY LOGANO | 15-1 |
| CARL EDWARDS | 25-1 |
| GREG BIFFLE | 25-1 |
| CLINT BOWYER | 25-1 |
| JAMIE McMURRAY | 25-1 |
| RYAN NEWMAN | 30-1 |
| AUSTIN DILLON | 30-1 |
| MARTIN TRUEX JR | 35-1 |
| BRIAN VICKERS | 35-1 |
| PAUL MENARD | 40-1 |
| RICKY STENHOUSE JR | 40-1 |
| KYLE LARSON | 40-1 |
| DANICA PATRICK | 50-1 |
| MICHAEL WALTRIP | 50-1 |
| MARCOS AMBROSE | 60-1 |
| TREVOR BAYNE | 75-1 |
| AJ ALLMENDINGER | 100-1 |
| DAVID RAGAN | 100-1 |
| DAVID GILLILAND | 100-1 |
| JUSTIN ALLGAIER | 100-1 |
| CASEY MEARS | 200-1 |
| MICHAEL ANNETT | 200-1 |
| FIELD | 30-1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->After the Budweiser Duel qualifying races on Thursday night, Salmons updated his odds and put six drivers as the co-favorites at 10-1: Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., Stewart, Matt Kenseth (who won Duel 1 on Thursday night), Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Earlier in the day, the LVH had those first five at 10-1, but Salmons lowered Hamlin from 12-1 to 10-1 after he won the second Duel and is trying to become the first to win Daytona's Unlimited, Duel and 500 in the same year.
"The Daytona 500 is the biggest NASCAR race of the year and has all the tradition, but it's the most wide-open race of the year," Salmons said. "As with most restrictor-plate racing, almost anyone in the field can win it.
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"Johnson shouldn't be 10-1, but a lot of the public doesn't know who to bet, so they just pick him because he's the king of NASCAR right now."
Those who bet that way got rewarded last year when Johnson won the 500 for the second time in his illustrious career and was available as high as 12-1 at the LVH. Salmons isn't giving as high of odds this year, but there are sure to be bettors who see 10-1 as value on the greatest driver of his generation. Kenseth and Hamlin were both 5-1 co-favorites in their respective races, so form held at Daytona, which will have many bettors looking at the favorites again.
After Salmons' six co-favorites, he has Stewart and 2012 Sprint Cup champ Brad Keselowski at 12-1, followed by a quartet at 15-1: Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano. The next grouping at 25-1 includes Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray.
Bowyer was last seen doing a 360-degree flip during the last-race crash in Budweiser Duel 2. He'll go to a backup car, but Salmons says that's not a reason to downgrade his chances.
"Back in the old days, you had teams that might have a clunker as a backup car and you'd be doomed, but at this level nowadays, the top teams' second car is every bit as good," Salmons said. "Johnson also wrecked his car, but you know his team will have him in a good car on Sunday, especially for a restrictor-plate race. I'm not raising the odds on any of the 12 drivers that crashed."
Austin Dillon is the pole sitter but only in the middle of the pack on the LVH's odds boards at 30-1.
"People make too much out of winning the pole," Salmons said. "Where you start in this race is immaterial."
That's pretty much backed up by looking at the opening odds from December, in which a lot of drivers are right where they were back then, including the opening co-faves of Johnson, Kyle Busch and Kenseth at 10-1 and Dillon, who was 30-1.
One high-profile driver whose odds have risen is Danica Patrick, who was 40-1 back in December and still there early this past week, but Salmons raised her to 50-1. Last year at this time, Salmons told me that the most tickets written on any driver was Patrick, so is the fact that he raised her odds a sign that we've seen the end of the sentimental tickets on NASCAR's female star?
"It's funny that you say that, because, yes, tickets on her are way down this year," Salmons said. "We still see some, but last year all those $10 and $20 tickets really added up to where she would have been a big loser for us. That's not the case this year."
So what does Salmons think of NASCAR legend Richard Petty's comments about Patrick? He wasn't going to bite, and in fact went back to his statement that anyone can win the Daytona 500 and that her chances aren't much worse (despite the disparity in odds) than a lot of the top contenders.
"She made a good run last year, and this is the type of race she could win by sticking around to the end and getting a little racing luck," he said. "She's led other races, too, so she could get a win by being on the lead when it starts to rain and the race doesn't resume. Never say never."
[h=3]Tuley's Take[/h]A lot of wiseguys pass on the Daytona 500 since it is such a wide-open race. There's no secret handicapping formula for figuring out the fastest car, and Salmons said it's likely that we'll have at least one big crash that takes out a lot of the field, so your pick could have the fastest car and just be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
But while I'm not going to go crazy, I still think we can formulate a betting strategy to try and take advantage of the randomness. Some auto-racing bettors like to bet multiple favorites since you can get some at nice prices, especially if you're able to shop around. For instance, let's say you bet $10 apiece on the six co-faves at the LVH at 10-1. If the winner came from that group, you'd collect $110 and a tidy $50 profit.
I'd rather take a shot and try for a bigger score. Let's go with a mythical $100 bankroll and see if we can turn a profit looking at just the odds at the LVH (this won't be far off from what I do for real, though I'll shop around for some better prices on individual drivers if I can find them).
$20 on Johnson at 10-1 (might be an underlay, but if it comes down to the final lap again, who would you rather have driving?)
$20 on Hamlin at 10-1 (hottest driver coming in; seems silly to leave him out)
$20 on Kevin Harvick at 12-1 (lost as the favorite last year; second in Duel 1 Thursday; should be in contention)
$10 on Biffle at 25-1 (flying under the radar, but he's got a shot)
$10 on Dillon at 30-1 (he was my long-shot pick last year, so maybe I was just a year too early)
$10 on Patrick at 50-1 (partly based on what Salmons said, and if she pulls it off, I want to say I had her)
$10 on Michael Waltrip at 50-1 (he doesn't race full time anymore and doesn't care about points, so if he's in contention, he's going to go for it all)
