How Would Ohio State Do In The SEC Or Pac-12?

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Football Outsiders: Would Ohio State go unbeaten in the SEC or Pac-12?[/h]Brian Fremeau, ESPN Insider

Ohio State earned every first-place vote in the AP top 25 poll and stands atop the rankings of pretty much every human and computer power-rating system.
And why not?
In the season opener against Virginia Tech, the defending national champion racked up 10 plays that gained at least 20 yards and allowed only three such plays. Expect even more of that kind of lopsided production throughout the season. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Ohio State is expected to have at least a 91 percent likelihood of victory against its next nine opponents, and at least a 79 percent likelihood of victory against the remaining two teams on its regular-season schedule.
But how would the Buckeyes do in the other Power 5 conferences? Well, they wouldn't be as dominant, that's for sure.
We ran a simulation that swapped the Buckeyes' schedule with those of the top teams in each of the other major conferences and found that all of them would be more challenging to run the table against than what the Big Ten has in store.
According to our methodology, Ohio State currently projects to win an average of 11.6 regular-season games in the Big Ten. How many wins would the Buckeyes get if they didn't play in the Big Ten?
Spoiler alert: Big Ten fans may not enjoy what the data shows.
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[h=2]If Ohio State played in the SEC[/h]Alabama's schedule would give Ohio State 1.3 extra losses
Georgia's schedule would give Ohio State 1.0 extra losses
In the SEC, instead of facing 10 opponents ranked outside the top 30, against Alabama's SEC West gauntlet Ohio State would have to play eight opponents ranked inside the top 30, and five such opponents against Georgia's SEC East schedule. Instead of a 49 percent chance to run the table, Ohio State's likelihood of an undefeated season would drop to 14 percent. Even the nonconference games would be tougher. The Buckeyes dodge Wisconsin in the regular season this year, but Alabama dispatched the Badgers on Saturday night. Georgia faces a top-15 opponent, Georgia Tech, at the end of the year, a team projected to stand ahead of ACC Coastal division mate Virginia Tech.

[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Pac-12[/h]Oregon's schedule would give Ohio State 0.8 extra losses
USC's schedule would give Ohio State 1.2 extra losses
Both the Ducks and Buckeyes face top-10 opponent Michigan State this year, but Oregon has to play the Spartans in East Lansing while Ohio State gets them in Columbus. The Ducks don't have too many other major obstacles, but the Pac-12 as a whole ranks a step ahead of the Big Ten, so 90 percent win likelihoods for the Buckeyes today may only be 80-85 percent win likelihoods if the schedules swapped. USC's schedule is even more challenging, with six top-30 opponents on the slate according to our current projections, the second-toughest non-SEC schedule in the nation.

[h=2]If Ohio State played in the Big 12[/h]Baylor's schedule would give Ohio State 0.5 extra losses
TCU's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
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</article>The Big 12 doesn't play a conference championship game at the end of the year, and Ohio State will have an additional game at that point that would likely make this schedule swap a wash. But comparing regular-season schedules only, the Big 12 presumptive favorites have a tougher path than Ohio State. There are only four top-30 opponents in each league, according to our current ratings, and the Big 12 is a round-robin format so both TCU and Baylor must play each of the other three. Ohio State plays only one of the other three top-30 opponents on its league schedule because two are in the opposite division.

[h=2]If Ohio State played in the ACC[/h]Florida State's schedule would give Ohio State 0.3 extra losses
Clemson's schedule would give Ohio State 0.6 extra losses
Of the other Power 5 conferences, only the ACC is comparatively equivalent to the Big Ten in terms of its mix of strong, average and weak teams. Like the Buckeyes, the Seminoles face only two top-30 opponents over the course of the season, but unlike Ohio State both opponents are on the road. Clemson faces only two top-30 opponents in the ACC but adds two others out of conference -- South Carolina and Notre Dame. If the Buckeyes had either Clemson's or Florida State's ACC schedule, they would be a strong favorite in every game, but either schedule would be slightly more difficult than the Buckeyes' slate. Against FSU's schedule, the Buckeyes would have a 44 percent likelihood of going undefeated, and a 33 percent likelihood against Clemson's schedule.
 

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a really bonafide good team should not be allowed to hide in a week division. at the same time in my opinion, a team who misses the "playoffs" because they play in the toughest division should be allowed another chance somewhere.

Unfortunately football is kinda setup like combat sports because there's no such thing as a 7 game series in fighting or football. You knock your opponent 1 time during that year and it's very rare that you see them another time that year, or a 3rd time. On a case by case basis, some of these fighters/football teams should go head to head to see who really is the champion best of 5 minimum but that's not the kind of world we live in right now.
 

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Colin Cowherd: "Ohio State Would Run Through The SEC"


 

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Well they would do pretty good considering that they mopped the FLOOR with Bama.
 

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Last year they would have lost 3+

this year...probably at minimum 1
 

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Likely to forfeit at half time in every game due to getting beat so bad.:smoking:
 

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Obviously you don't watch much football.


Considering you have UGA (I get that's a homer pick and you don't really believe that) who beat those awesome vandy and Louisiana Monroe teams and ole miss who beat those powerhouse Fresno and Tennessee Martin teams in your top 4 maybe you're the one that needs to watch more football
 

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Tell me the 3 teams that they would of lost to last year. This should be good.....

VT
Bama
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss St
Auburn
UGA
SC
Florida
Mizzou


Point is at the end of the year Ohio St was the best team
They beat Bama by a 7 and Oregon by 20. They also have the luxury of playing in a conference that weekly isn't a dog fight. If you know anything about football you would see that. The PAC is a couple teams of improving to be on a weekly dogfight themselves. Ohio St wasn't the team they were at the end of the year last year at the beginning. Put them in the SEC they have a couple more losses last year. This year they lose at least one. There not that many easy outs in the SEC schedule.
 

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This year Ohio St in conference has to win 1 tough game in MSU
Who else do they have to play in order to run the table in conference? They are a very very good team. They also can't help that the Big 10 is down. It's the fact that it's a lot easier to win 1 game to run the table vs 4-5.
 

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suffice to say; "not as good"

in the SEC they would play a bunch of games where they would have to play good to win

1 or 2 such games top in the B10, tops

it's just a different level of play
 

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Considering you have UGA (I get that's a homer pick and you don't really believe that) who beat those awesome vandy and Louisiana Monroe teams and ole miss who beat those powerhouse Fresno and Tennessee Martin teams in your top 4 maybe you're the one that needs to watch more football


Are you comparing UGAs OOC schedule to Ohio States?
 

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Ohio State may or may not lose an SEC game this year....but they certainly would suffer more injuries, dings, aches and pains and have a lower margin of victory. Anyone arguing the SEC schedule isn't a brutal gauntlet is an idiot. Just going on the road to play in a real stadium that is sold out vs. a B10 stadium that has more Ohio State fans than the home team makes it more difficult.
 

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Ohio State may or may not lose an SEC game this year....but they certainly would suffer more injuries, dings, aches and pains and have a lower margin of victory. Anyone arguing the SEC schedule isn't a brutal gauntlet is an idiot. Just going on the road to play in a real stadium that is sold out vs. a B10 stadium that has more Ohio State fans than the home team makes it more difficult.

good point Coach ......not to make any excuses , but we didn't have any skill players left for title game....pretty much hamstrung MM and the offense.....Ohio St fan , you deserved the win fair and square , so you have my respect.
 

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good point Coach ......not to make any excuses , but we didn't have any skill players left for title game....pretty much hamstrung MM and the offense.....Ohio St fan , you deserved the win fair and square , so you have my respect.

Absolutely. No doubt Oregon was beat up.

Now, to be fair to OSU....they did lose their QB...but to Meyer's credit, he had the back up ready to go. But on that note, (I like to use FSU of the 90's as a comparison): when you are blowing teams out (because your conference is so weak) it allows a number of things:

-Starters get to rest....i.e. not get injured due to battling until the late 4th quarter
-Reserves/backups get actual game reps....which is invaluable to building depth (teams in a 4 quarter fight play starters the whole game and backups rarely play)

FSU literally played a 2 or 3 game schedule in the 90's (UF, Miami and occasional decent ACC team). The B10 right now is a similar situation. Mich State is good, actually they are very good. But the rest of the bunch are just middle of road. So, as I said in my first post....they would have a more difficult road (injuries, dings, aches, pains, road games, less depth, etc)......
 

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