HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING AT SPORTS BETTING

[THE SHRINK]

I have been around the block a few times when it comes to betting on sports. I have also made many mistakes over the years.

Once criteria which seperates losers from winners is whether we learn from our miscews.
Simply put, winners do, loser's don't.

We have all heard the typical words of wisdom which I'd like to refer to as Sports Betting 101...

Manage your bankroll properly, be disciplined, use multiple outs, and don't chase. In fact, sometimes the best bet I have ever made was the one I never called in...

Thirty plus years later, I have discovered a sure way to improve my winning percentage. I can also predict that many of you reading this column will not want to give it a try because it goes so much against your tendencies...

One of my friends and mentors in this business, namely Billy Walters, is arguably the greatest sports bettor that our industry has ever known. In my opinion, he is the Michael Jordan of offshore and onshore sports gambling.

One thing that I can tell you is that Billy Walters' lifetime winning percentage is only somewhere between 56-57%.

Therefore, I believe that anyone who claims to have a higher winning rate than this man over a lifetime is lying...

Now one of the "pearls" that he and nearly every other professional knows is that there is much more VALUE betting UNDERDOGS and UNDERS...

This should be easy to figure out since the pointspread is not based on TRUE VALUE only, but it is also weighted a lot on what the PUBLIC PERCEPTION of what the line should be.

Therefore, since the PUBLIC tends to bet Favorites and Overs much more so than Underdogs and Unders, there is a biass that exists, which can and often is exploited by professional gamblers...

Now, here's the "pearl" that will make you a much better gambler if it is followed carefully...

Multiple outs are a must, so if you don't have at least five, you might as well stop reading this now...

I have decided to bet on ONLY UNDERDOGS and ONLY when I can get a half point the best of it.

And since I have been doing this, my winning % has risen dramatically.

Virtually anyone can pick a favorite to WIN, but it takes much more skill and discipline to bet on only dogs.

For example, when Duke was playing Maryland the other day, Duke was favored by nine points

When I see a "line" that is tainted at plus 9 everywhere, I will only bet the game if I can get a half point better than the tainted number.

In this case, I waited for 9 1/2's to pop up, which they did, and quite often this happens.

So, I took only plus 9 1/2. Incidentally, the line closed at 9...

Therefore, I am betting only on the dog, but I MUST GET get a 1/2 point better than the most common line which is out there..

I know this is not for everyone to try, but I'd be shocked to hear any "insider" refute this.

THE SHRINK

 

[SmokeyWins]

great post Boss Man!!!!!!!!!!!!

ride them doggies

 

[TheGeneral+]

Don't forget to use the local bookie. Atleast in my case, I can almost always get the better number on the dog with the local. The local book is the best out you may have in some cases.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Smokey,

Thank you...

Good Luck with the games!

 

[kerry]

Shrink--How would you like to have a local that calls you before tip and requests your "help". And, the deal is 1 point better than the screen. Of course, 95 per cent of the time it is the dog!

 

[Anonymous1]

okay...suppose only one or two outs...do you get the same results buying the half...is it not the same excepting the cost factor...

 

[TheGeneral+]

cheapseats,

IMO, the buying would increase the vig so that you would not be getting the best price. It is one thing to get the best line but we will lose some games, and we do not want excess vig(juice) eating at our profits. Look far down the road and grind it out. If you cannot get the best number without buying, then pass. Wise guys and sharps simply play the best numbers available. Squares like me just take something close.

 

[SportSavant]

shrink, I thought u had the terps + 10

 

[pja101]

I'm going to assume that this is not another shill for skybook, as this forum has become ridiculously littered with them. The fact that Fishhead has not come in(yet) and told us how he has saved millions with skybook's free half-points strengthens my assumption(I think).

Yes, underdogs and unders have historically been a >50% winner. Putting yourself in a winning, or close to winning situation is never a bad idea.

You touched on one subject that I notice people error frequently on, possibly without knowing it. Obviously, most people understand the difference between a 9 and an 8.5 dog. A losing bet can be a push. I cannot tell you how many times I've heard people tell me that there is NO significant difference between a 9.5 dog, and 9 dog. They argue that the half point cannot cause them to lose their wager. At worst it will cause them to push. They argue that if 9.5 losses 46 out of 100 times, 9 also loses 46 out of 100 times, as a loss by ten or greater is needed in both cases.

Obviously, that thinking is flawed. If 9.5 has a 54% expectation of winning, 9 has lower expectation.
54*100=5400 46*110=5060 =+$340 in profit
50*100=5000 46*110=5060 4 pushes=0 =-$60 in loses. Just using an example of that number pushing 1 in 25 times, it can obviously be the difference between a good bet from a bad one.

The importance of buying at the best possible number, and settling for nothing less, cannot be stressed enough. For example, being a college student, afternoon classes can sometimes cause me to miss the opening CBB numbers for the following day. If I certain line that I was hoping for has come and now gone before I could get it(even if only a half-point), I will almost always pass on that game, unless I still feel it has a great amount of value, which is rare.

Good thread, Shrink.