[h=1]How to bet UFC on FOX 12[/h][h=3]Finding where the value lies on the main card, including Lawler-Brown[/h]
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider
The UFC is back in San Jose, California, this week after back-to-back barn-burner events in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Dublin. Both fight cards featured a smaller-than-full-size Octagon, and as prior analysis on cage size has shown, the tight quarters led to loads of exciting fights and early finishes.
Now with a much larger television audience awaiting the UFC's quarterly appearance on Fox (and in anticipation of the down side of the larger, full-size Octagon), matchmakers have stacked the deck with some heavy hitters to ensure casual fans get the excitement they seek on Saturday before heading into a lull in the schedule.
So before we get into the top three matchups on the card -- Dennis Bermudez vs. Clay Guida, Anthony Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown -- consider first how these the fighters stack up in our measure of striking power: the "Knockdown Rate." Note that all but one is "above average," and even more so when factoring in their respective weight classes.<offer></offer>
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[h=3]No. 11 Dennis Bermudez (minus-160) vs. No. 7 Clay Guida (plus-120)[/h]
When Guida and Bermudez meet in the Octagon, they will be launching more strike attempts per minute combined than any pairing on the card. That bodes well for action. But who will be the one doing more damage in what the market is calling the closest matchup of the final three fights, and nearly a "pick 'em" in terms of odds?
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The performance metrics give Bermudez a lot of advantages here. Although he gives up two inches of reach, Bermudez is a much younger fighter who has more offensive weapons. He'll be the one dictating engagement of striking, and also the one more likely to land on target. Both men possess power above their weight class and have also been dropped in the past, but don't go counting on a KO finish just yet, as both fighters have proven to recover quickly when getting rocked.
Guida's frenetic style of bouncing and feinting used to confuse opponents, but it has not helped him in more recent fights. Still, it can be argued that Guida has only lost to champion-caliber talent, while Bermudez has yet to test himself against highly ranked opponents. It's true. That said, Bermudez's wins over Matt Grice, Matt Holloway and Steven Siler, all of whom are solid and underrated, demonstrates his ability to grind out a win.
Even if Guida's performance metrics are deflated relative to Bermudez due to the difference in strength of schedule, we do see clues as to why Bermudez is the favored fighter. Bermudez has crisper strikes to outwork Guida when they're on their feet, and possesses the wrestling base necessary to prevent Guida from stealing rounds on the mat.
Insider recommends: At such an even price, Bermudez seems like the safer bet, although it might take all three rounds to see him earn it. If there are plus-money props on Guida to win at least a round -- or that the decision will be split -- those could also be worth a small play to hedge. If the lines move too much in either direction, however, be wary and go the other way. This is still a close matchup after all.
The co-main event will have the steepest odds on the card, thanks to Johnson's dominant return to the UFC in what seems to be a more appropriate weight class. If Johnson can defeat Nogueira, he'll avenge the last loss of training partner Rashad Evans to Nogueira in 2013. That was already more than a year ago, and despite it being a monster upset for the Brazilian, it was also his only fight since 2011. Injuries have plagued Nogueira's résumé, leading to a case of potential ring rust for the oldest fighter competing on Saturday's card. This is shaping up to be the classic contender and gatekeeper dynamic in which the younger contender takes out a name fighter who is clearly in decline.
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Reed Kuhn</cite>
Indeed, Johnson's eight-year youth advantage is a big factor in the steep odds. Older fighters can't handle power strikes the same way they once did, and power striking might be the best part of Johnson's game. This combination of factors strongly hints at a potential KO finish for "Rumble" Johnson, who could make a strong case for title contention with another impressive win.
Although Johnson could theoretically be outmatched in jiu-jitsu against the more experienced Brazilian, he should be able to prevent the fight from getting there. In fact, Nogueira has just one takedown attempt in his six UFC fights, meaning he's mostly preferred to stand and trade and might also be susceptible to getting put on his back. The vulnerability of Johnson's takedown defense was put to the test when he faced rangy wrestler Phil Davis at UFC 172. Johnson easily defended takedowns in that fight and was clearly the dominant striker.
While Nogueira has far superior boxing credentials compared to Davis, he'll still be the shorter-range fighter facing a much more dangerous and powerful striker. The exchanges at first could favor Nogueira on points, but if Johnson can overcome the awkwardness of facing a southpaw and time his counters properly, he's more likely to land the knockout blow.
Insider recommends: Expecting Nogueira to pull off a second straight huge upset win after another long layoff is like expecting lightning to strike twice, and Johnson has several paths to victory here. The steep odds make Johnson a candidate for parlays with other justifiable favorites, but the 1.5-round total for the over/under is a little tight. Opt instead for a Johnson win by TKO prop or "fight does not go the distance" angle to get better return on your money, as Johnson should be able to land a bomb during a fight that should stay standing for the most part.
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In a fight with title implications for the welterweight division, there will also be a lot of potential for violence between two fighters famous for their willingness to stand and trade. Brown has overcome underdog odds again and again, and several times the data supported his upset victories. But what about here? Lawler is only one small step below the biggest test available in the division, so the question for Brown is whether he has finally hit his ceiling after an impressive run of seven straight victories, including six by way of TKO/KO stoppages.
Statistically, the southpaw Lawler comes across well with precise hands and above-average power for the division. His striking defense and chin are also better than average and better than Brown's, despite the data including some of Lawler's prior fights at middleweight. Defense is critical, because the only way Lawler loses here is the same way Brown's prior opponents have lost: violently. Lawler's sprawl-and-brawl style with precise counters will punish Brown if he comes forward too aggressively. And Lawler is also capable of dictating the stand-up exchanges while staying out of trouble -- something he managed for two out of five rounds against the current champion, Johny Hendricks.
Insider recommends: The odds continue to creep up favoring Lawler, and I agree. Lawler is the clear favorite here, making him more fodder for parlays. The total of 2.5 rounds favors the under at minus-150, and I think that's a reasonable price to play the early finish. Lawler could snap a body shot that drops Brown, or launch a southpaw head kick to get the finish. Playing the under also hedges against Brown, the division's most overachieving underdog, pulling one more miracle upset from his bag of violent tricks.
It's hard to imagine a fight card exceeding the excitement levels recently set at the UFC Fight Night in Dublin, but there are lots of talented finishers competing in San Jose, California, going into the brief lull in the UFC's schedule. With potentially more eyes and bettors paying attention, expect a lot of parlays on Johnson and Lawler to keep pushing their lines ever upward, similar to what happened to Gunnar Nelson and Conor McGregorlast weekend. That means getting in early, and also considering the props for better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values (e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100). Underdogs are positive values (e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100). Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider
The UFC is back in San Jose, California, this week after back-to-back barn-burner events in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Dublin. Both fight cards featured a smaller-than-full-size Octagon, and as prior analysis on cage size has shown, the tight quarters led to loads of exciting fights and early finishes.
Now with a much larger television audience awaiting the UFC's quarterly appearance on Fox (and in anticipation of the down side of the larger, full-size Octagon), matchmakers have stacked the deck with some heavy hitters to ensure casual fans get the excitement they seek on Saturday before heading into a lull in the schedule.
So before we get into the top three matchups on the card -- Dennis Bermudez vs. Clay Guida, Anthony Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown -- consider first how these the fighters stack up in our measure of striking power: the "Knockdown Rate." Note that all but one is "above average," and even more so when factoring in their respective weight classes.<offer></offer>
[h=3]No. 11 Dennis Bermudez (minus-160) vs. No. 7 Clay Guida (plus-120)[/h]
When Guida and Bermudez meet in the Octagon, they will be launching more strike attempts per minute combined than any pairing on the card. That bodes well for action. But who will be the one doing more damage in what the market is calling the closest matchup of the final three fights, and nearly a "pick 'em" in terms of odds?
The performance metrics give Bermudez a lot of advantages here. Although he gives up two inches of reach, Bermudez is a much younger fighter who has more offensive weapons. He'll be the one dictating engagement of striking, and also the one more likely to land on target. Both men possess power above their weight class and have also been dropped in the past, but don't go counting on a KO finish just yet, as both fighters have proven to recover quickly when getting rocked.
Guida's frenetic style of bouncing and feinting used to confuse opponents, but it has not helped him in more recent fights. Still, it can be argued that Guida has only lost to champion-caliber talent, while Bermudez has yet to test himself against highly ranked opponents. It's true. That said, Bermudez's wins over Matt Grice, Matt Holloway and Steven Siler, all of whom are solid and underrated, demonstrates his ability to grind out a win.
Even if Guida's performance metrics are deflated relative to Bermudez due to the difference in strength of schedule, we do see clues as to why Bermudez is the favored fighter. Bermudez has crisper strikes to outwork Guida when they're on their feet, and possesses the wrestling base necessary to prevent Guida from stealing rounds on the mat.
Insider recommends: At such an even price, Bermudez seems like the safer bet, although it might take all three rounds to see him earn it. If there are plus-money props on Guida to win at least a round -- or that the decision will be split -- those could also be worth a small play to hedge. If the lines move too much in either direction, however, be wary and go the other way. This is still a close matchup after all.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 5 Anthony Johnson (minus-475) vs. Antonio Nogueira (plus-380)[/h]</center>The co-main event will have the steepest odds on the card, thanks to Johnson's dominant return to the UFC in what seems to be a more appropriate weight class. If Johnson can defeat Nogueira, he'll avenge the last loss of training partner Rashad Evans to Nogueira in 2013. That was already more than a year ago, and despite it being a monster upset for the Brazilian, it was also his only fight since 2011. Injuries have plagued Nogueira's résumé, leading to a case of potential ring rust for the oldest fighter competing on Saturday's card. This is shaping up to be the classic contender and gatekeeper dynamic in which the younger contender takes out a name fighter who is clearly in decline.
Indeed, Johnson's eight-year youth advantage is a big factor in the steep odds. Older fighters can't handle power strikes the same way they once did, and power striking might be the best part of Johnson's game. This combination of factors strongly hints at a potential KO finish for "Rumble" Johnson, who could make a strong case for title contention with another impressive win.
Although Johnson could theoretically be outmatched in jiu-jitsu against the more experienced Brazilian, he should be able to prevent the fight from getting there. In fact, Nogueira has just one takedown attempt in his six UFC fights, meaning he's mostly preferred to stand and trade and might also be susceptible to getting put on his back. The vulnerability of Johnson's takedown defense was put to the test when he faced rangy wrestler Phil Davis at UFC 172. Johnson easily defended takedowns in that fight and was clearly the dominant striker.
While Nogueira has far superior boxing credentials compared to Davis, he'll still be the shorter-range fighter facing a much more dangerous and powerful striker. The exchanges at first could favor Nogueira on points, but if Johnson can overcome the awkwardness of facing a southpaw and time his counters properly, he's more likely to land the knockout blow.
Insider recommends: Expecting Nogueira to pull off a second straight huge upset win after another long layoff is like expecting lightning to strike twice, and Johnson has several paths to victory here. The steep odds make Johnson a candidate for parlays with other justifiable favorites, but the 1.5-round total for the over/under is a little tight. Opt instead for a Johnson win by TKO prop or "fight does not go the distance" angle to get better return on your money, as Johnson should be able to land a bomb during a fight that should stay standing for the most part.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 1 Robbie Lawler (minus-350) vs. No. 5 Matt Brown (plus-475)[/h]</center>
In a fight with title implications for the welterweight division, there will also be a lot of potential for violence between two fighters famous for their willingness to stand and trade. Brown has overcome underdog odds again and again, and several times the data supported his upset victories. But what about here? Lawler is only one small step below the biggest test available in the division, so the question for Brown is whether he has finally hit his ceiling after an impressive run of seven straight victories, including six by way of TKO/KO stoppages.
Statistically, the southpaw Lawler comes across well with precise hands and above-average power for the division. His striking defense and chin are also better than average and better than Brown's, despite the data including some of Lawler's prior fights at middleweight. Defense is critical, because the only way Lawler loses here is the same way Brown's prior opponents have lost: violently. Lawler's sprawl-and-brawl style with precise counters will punish Brown if he comes forward too aggressively. And Lawler is also capable of dictating the stand-up exchanges while staying out of trouble -- something he managed for two out of five rounds against the current champion, Johny Hendricks.
Insider recommends: The odds continue to creep up favoring Lawler, and I agree. Lawler is the clear favorite here, making him more fodder for parlays. The total of 2.5 rounds favors the under at minus-150, and I think that's a reasonable price to play the early finish. Lawler could snap a body shot that drops Brown, or launch a southpaw head kick to get the finish. Playing the under also hedges against Brown, the division's most overachieving underdog, pulling one more miracle upset from his bag of violent tricks.
[h=3]Closing lines[/h]It's hard to imagine a fight card exceeding the excitement levels recently set at the UFC Fight Night in Dublin, but there are lots of talented finishers competing in San Jose, California, going into the brief lull in the UFC's schedule. With potentially more eyes and bettors paying attention, expect a lot of parlays on Johnson and Lawler to keep pushing their lines ever upward, similar to what happened to Gunnar Nelson and Conor McGregorlast weekend. That means getting in early, and also considering the props for better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values (e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100). Underdogs are positive values (e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100). Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
