Christian Pina
MW Championship: Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+200)
The hometown champion, Robert Whittaker is a pretty sizable favorite in this matchup against the challenger Gastelum, and frankly it’s probably warranted. Whittaker has to just be thankful that the two year war with Yoel Romero is now in his rearview mirror and he can finally move on with his career. This fight should largely take place on the feet, where Whittaker has the advantage on paper, but Gastelum is not likely to come out overly aggressive which should make this a longer drawn out fight then maybe some are used to seeing by Whittaker prior to the wars with Yoel Romero. Gastelum has long been something of a Jeckyll and Hyde type of fighter as sometimes you don’t know which version is going to get into the octagon. Sometimes he looks dominant (which he has of late) with wins over Michael Bisping and Jacare Souza, while other times he frankly looks disinterested in being inside the octagon. For that reason alone, not even counting the height, weight, and hometown advantage of Whittaker, I’m going to have to lean with the hometown champion to retain. After this matchup, his next title fight is likely against the winner of the next fight, pending the heavy favorite can take out an all time great.
The Pick: Robert Whittaker (-250)
Israel Adesanya (-650) Vs. Anderson Silva (+450)
This may be hard to hear for fans who grew up watching Anderson Silva, but in my opinion, he needs to hang them up. There isn’t too much to break down from a technical standpoint in this fight as Adesanya is the more technical fighter, skilled fighter, and all around mixed martial artist at this point in their careers. It’s very simple what The UFC is attempting to do in this situation by having Anderson Silva fight for the first time in over two years, which is hand the torch of middleweight over to Adesanya as his meteoric rise up the division continues with one of the greatest all time on his resume. You can never count out aging veterans in The UFC, usually-hell Jose Aldo was proof of that just last week, but Anderson Silva is much more on the B.J Penn side of MMA than Jose Aldo, and this could get ugly for fans of The Spider. Adesanya should win inside the distance here, if not a dominant decision victory, which would put him next in line for a title shot.
The Pick: Israel Adesanya (-650)
Rani Yahya (-105) Vs. Ricky Simon (-125)
We have a classic striker Vs. grappler fight on our hands with this bout. On paper, Simon does have a few advantages that stick out including a two inch reach advantage, so if he can keep this fight standing, which I would believe he would in search of his fifth career knockout, he should find success. On the other hand, Rani Yahya poses his own set of challenges including some elite Jiu Jitsu that he will employ to get this fight to the mat by any means possible in search of yet another submission victory. When we look at the type of competition Simon has faced, a glaring omission is an elite submission artist, so it’s really not known how Simon is going to be able to counter those attacks and positions.
The Pick: Rani Yahya (-105)
D Hyun Kim (+195) Vs. Devonte Smith (-245)
It took only 46 seconds to get Smith his first UFC win against Julian Erosa, and he isn’t even close to a finished version of himself yet. Kim has always been known as a wild striker but he is attempting to diversify his game as he goes, which does leave openings as he hasn’t quite mastered the rest of his game to this point. He also has fought some of the worst competition on the UFC’s roster and for that reason, I’ll take the up and coming prospect to make it 2-0 inside The UFC’s octagon.
The Pick: Devonte Smith (-245)
Austin Arnett (+265) Vs. Shane Young (-325)
Arnett is one of those fighters who doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, but has a solid grasp of basics and fundamentals, which has obviously led him to struggle against higher caliber UFC opponents. He’s not the most athletically gifted fighter, and although he usually has a reach advantage he seldom uses it or works it to his advantage, up until his last fight. Shane Young, on the other hand, is similar in that he as well doesn’t do one thing great, but is an all around quality fighter. Look, neither of these guys are ever expected to make much noise in their division, but with that being said, Young will at least execute a solid game plan while Arnett has been known to be timid and have fight IQ breakdowns, which makes him untrustworthy, but the difference in talent isn’t nearly as wide as the line makes you believe, and for that reason it’s a dog or pass situation.
The Pick: Austin Arnett (+265)
Nadia Kassem (+215) Vs. Montana De La Rosa (-265)
In one of the more underrated fights of the evening, undefeated prospect Nadia Kassem puts her 5-0 record on the line as over a 2/1 underdog against Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa brings something women’s fights have been lacking of late, and thats finishing power. She’s finished the fight in seven out of nine wins in her career, and she could be the next rising star as the UFC looks to build their flyweight division. This is her opportunity to find herself as a true contender and shed the prospect title in this division that is begging for star power. The red hot prospect Kassem will be more than game as the hometown underdog, however.
The Pick: Nadia Kassem (+215)
Jim Crute (-130) Vs. Sam Alvey (+110)
Fans of free fight night cards see a familiar face with “Smilin’ Sam Alvey finally making his pay per view debut. Alvey is coming in on short notice, after an injury to Crute’s original opponent put the fight in jeopardy, but Alvey was able to step in. Alvey is going to be looking to make his mark on his UFC PPV debut, but Jim Crute isn’t 9-0 and undefeated by accident. It is worthy of a mention Crute sustained a bad cut on his face in the days leading up to this fight, so any type of damage or blood is always a possibility to sway a judges decision. Crute’s brawling style will try to keep the fight standing, although he did pull off an impressive submission of Paul Craig in round three of his debut fight.
The Pick: Sam Alvey (+110)
Raulian Paiva (+250) Vs. Kai Kara France (-305)
This is another fight that has the potential to steal the show, as Kara France is a well rounded mixed martial artist entering the fight with 11 wins in his past 12 contests. He fights out of Thailand and the nickname given to him of, “Don’t Blink” isn’t there for nothing. On the other hand, don’t let the +250 price tag fool you on Raulin Paiva just because he’s making his UFC debut, he’s entering the contest having won 12 straight fights against some of the best regional fighters on the planet. Kara France certainly has to work on the other aspects of his game beside striking, but the division better watch out if he starts being more well rounded.
The Pick: Kai Kara France (-305)
Teruto Ishihara (+310) Vs. Kyung Ho Kang (-380)
The book has been out on Ishihara for some time now, which has led to him dropping four out of his last five fights. He’s going to come at you with everything he has early, hoping for an early finish due to his continued cardio issues, and if you can weather that storm, you’re going to be able to have your way late. Ishihara has shown a tremendous ability to take damage, even late in a fight when he is clearly out of gas, but he just has no offensive output from that type of cardio state. That being said, when your best attribute is the ability to take damage, unless your Darren Elkins, it doesn’t bode well for you when your opponent is even tougher than you are which is the situation Ishihara finds himself in against Kang. Kang also is the far more active fighter, and in a fight expected to last the distance, rounds two and three are where Kang will pull away. This may even be a great live betting opportunity of Ishihara goes all out in round one and is able to steal the round, the price may dip on Kang a bit. Kang by decision is by far the most likely of outcomes here.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang (-380)
Marcos Rosa (+320) Vs. Lando Vannata (-390)
This is the type of fight that makes you feel certain ways as an MMA fan. Lando Vannata was once this up and coming white hot prospect with explosive finishing power, unexpected and out of nowhere strikes, and the ability to make any fight of his “must see”. Fast forward to today, and he’s a walking reminder how quickly things can change inside The UFC’s octagon. Vannata has just one win in his last six fights and the spinning wheel kick that knocked out John Makdessi seems like a far distant memory as his encore performance after a short notice replacement for Tony Ferguson, which the UFC clearly fell in love with too. The UFC is trying desperately to get Vannata a win here by scraping the bottom of the barrel in competition, but it just may not matter. Vannata has shown he can’t be trusted to bet on, and even in the best of matchups like this one, I just can’t trust him at this price. I would not fault you for taking the stab on Vannata in one last fight as if he loses this fight, he’s likely going to be shown the door.
The Pick: Marcos Rosa (+320)
Wuliji Buren (+135) Vs. Jonathan Martinez (-165)
The curtain jerker fight of the evening is a closely contested battle between Jackson-Wink’s Wuliji Buren and Factory X’s Jonathan Martinez. This is a tale of which trend you put more stock in as there’s a bunch of outliers with this battle. Jonathan Martinez has never fought outside of North America, which is something of a red flag for a young fighter in that first situation. On the other side, Wuliji Buren is just 2-5 in his last 7 fights, yet Jonathan Martinez has never been finished. If it sounds like I’m back and forth on this fight, you’re absolutely right. Both of these fighters are winless in the UFC at a combined record of 0-3 and truthfully I don’t trust either fighter with my money, but when forced to make a prediction, I’ll always take the underdog money.
The Pick: Wuliji Buren (+135)
MW Championship: Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+200)
The hometown champion, Robert Whittaker is a pretty sizable favorite in this matchup against the challenger Gastelum, and frankly it’s probably warranted. Whittaker has to just be thankful that the two year war with Yoel Romero is now in his rearview mirror and he can finally move on with his career. This fight should largely take place on the feet, where Whittaker has the advantage on paper, but Gastelum is not likely to come out overly aggressive which should make this a longer drawn out fight then maybe some are used to seeing by Whittaker prior to the wars with Yoel Romero. Gastelum has long been something of a Jeckyll and Hyde type of fighter as sometimes you don’t know which version is going to get into the octagon. Sometimes he looks dominant (which he has of late) with wins over Michael Bisping and Jacare Souza, while other times he frankly looks disinterested in being inside the octagon. For that reason alone, not even counting the height, weight, and hometown advantage of Whittaker, I’m going to have to lean with the hometown champion to retain. After this matchup, his next title fight is likely against the winner of the next fight, pending the heavy favorite can take out an all time great.
The Pick: Robert Whittaker (-250)
Israel Adesanya (-650) Vs. Anderson Silva (+450)
This may be hard to hear for fans who grew up watching Anderson Silva, but in my opinion, he needs to hang them up. There isn’t too much to break down from a technical standpoint in this fight as Adesanya is the more technical fighter, skilled fighter, and all around mixed martial artist at this point in their careers. It’s very simple what The UFC is attempting to do in this situation by having Anderson Silva fight for the first time in over two years, which is hand the torch of middleweight over to Adesanya as his meteoric rise up the division continues with one of the greatest all time on his resume. You can never count out aging veterans in The UFC, usually-hell Jose Aldo was proof of that just last week, but Anderson Silva is much more on the B.J Penn side of MMA than Jose Aldo, and this could get ugly for fans of The Spider. Adesanya should win inside the distance here, if not a dominant decision victory, which would put him next in line for a title shot.
The Pick: Israel Adesanya (-650)
Rani Yahya (-105) Vs. Ricky Simon (-125)
We have a classic striker Vs. grappler fight on our hands with this bout. On paper, Simon does have a few advantages that stick out including a two inch reach advantage, so if he can keep this fight standing, which I would believe he would in search of his fifth career knockout, he should find success. On the other hand, Rani Yahya poses his own set of challenges including some elite Jiu Jitsu that he will employ to get this fight to the mat by any means possible in search of yet another submission victory. When we look at the type of competition Simon has faced, a glaring omission is an elite submission artist, so it’s really not known how Simon is going to be able to counter those attacks and positions.
The Pick: Rani Yahya (-105)
D Hyun Kim (+195) Vs. Devonte Smith (-245)
It took only 46 seconds to get Smith his first UFC win against Julian Erosa, and he isn’t even close to a finished version of himself yet. Kim has always been known as a wild striker but he is attempting to diversify his game as he goes, which does leave openings as he hasn’t quite mastered the rest of his game to this point. He also has fought some of the worst competition on the UFC’s roster and for that reason, I’ll take the up and coming prospect to make it 2-0 inside The UFC’s octagon.
The Pick: Devonte Smith (-245)
Austin Arnett (+265) Vs. Shane Young (-325)
Arnett is one of those fighters who doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, but has a solid grasp of basics and fundamentals, which has obviously led him to struggle against higher caliber UFC opponents. He’s not the most athletically gifted fighter, and although he usually has a reach advantage he seldom uses it or works it to his advantage, up until his last fight. Shane Young, on the other hand, is similar in that he as well doesn’t do one thing great, but is an all around quality fighter. Look, neither of these guys are ever expected to make much noise in their division, but with that being said, Young will at least execute a solid game plan while Arnett has been known to be timid and have fight IQ breakdowns, which makes him untrustworthy, but the difference in talent isn’t nearly as wide as the line makes you believe, and for that reason it’s a dog or pass situation.
The Pick: Austin Arnett (+265)
Nadia Kassem (+215) Vs. Montana De La Rosa (-265)
In one of the more underrated fights of the evening, undefeated prospect Nadia Kassem puts her 5-0 record on the line as over a 2/1 underdog against Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa brings something women’s fights have been lacking of late, and thats finishing power. She’s finished the fight in seven out of nine wins in her career, and she could be the next rising star as the UFC looks to build their flyweight division. This is her opportunity to find herself as a true contender and shed the prospect title in this division that is begging for star power. The red hot prospect Kassem will be more than game as the hometown underdog, however.
The Pick: Nadia Kassem (+215)
Jim Crute (-130) Vs. Sam Alvey (+110)
Fans of free fight night cards see a familiar face with “Smilin’ Sam Alvey finally making his pay per view debut. Alvey is coming in on short notice, after an injury to Crute’s original opponent put the fight in jeopardy, but Alvey was able to step in. Alvey is going to be looking to make his mark on his UFC PPV debut, but Jim Crute isn’t 9-0 and undefeated by accident. It is worthy of a mention Crute sustained a bad cut on his face in the days leading up to this fight, so any type of damage or blood is always a possibility to sway a judges decision. Crute’s brawling style will try to keep the fight standing, although he did pull off an impressive submission of Paul Craig in round three of his debut fight.
The Pick: Sam Alvey (+110)
Raulian Paiva (+250) Vs. Kai Kara France (-305)
This is another fight that has the potential to steal the show, as Kara France is a well rounded mixed martial artist entering the fight with 11 wins in his past 12 contests. He fights out of Thailand and the nickname given to him of, “Don’t Blink” isn’t there for nothing. On the other hand, don’t let the +250 price tag fool you on Raulin Paiva just because he’s making his UFC debut, he’s entering the contest having won 12 straight fights against some of the best regional fighters on the planet. Kara France certainly has to work on the other aspects of his game beside striking, but the division better watch out if he starts being more well rounded.
The Pick: Kai Kara France (-305)
Teruto Ishihara (+310) Vs. Kyung Ho Kang (-380)
The book has been out on Ishihara for some time now, which has led to him dropping four out of his last five fights. He’s going to come at you with everything he has early, hoping for an early finish due to his continued cardio issues, and if you can weather that storm, you’re going to be able to have your way late. Ishihara has shown a tremendous ability to take damage, even late in a fight when he is clearly out of gas, but he just has no offensive output from that type of cardio state. That being said, when your best attribute is the ability to take damage, unless your Darren Elkins, it doesn’t bode well for you when your opponent is even tougher than you are which is the situation Ishihara finds himself in against Kang. Kang also is the far more active fighter, and in a fight expected to last the distance, rounds two and three are where Kang will pull away. This may even be a great live betting opportunity of Ishihara goes all out in round one and is able to steal the round, the price may dip on Kang a bit. Kang by decision is by far the most likely of outcomes here.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang (-380)
Marcos Rosa (+320) Vs. Lando Vannata (-390)
This is the type of fight that makes you feel certain ways as an MMA fan. Lando Vannata was once this up and coming white hot prospect with explosive finishing power, unexpected and out of nowhere strikes, and the ability to make any fight of his “must see”. Fast forward to today, and he’s a walking reminder how quickly things can change inside The UFC’s octagon. Vannata has just one win in his last six fights and the spinning wheel kick that knocked out John Makdessi seems like a far distant memory as his encore performance after a short notice replacement for Tony Ferguson, which the UFC clearly fell in love with too. The UFC is trying desperately to get Vannata a win here by scraping the bottom of the barrel in competition, but it just may not matter. Vannata has shown he can’t be trusted to bet on, and even in the best of matchups like this one, I just can’t trust him at this price. I would not fault you for taking the stab on Vannata in one last fight as if he loses this fight, he’s likely going to be shown the door.
The Pick: Marcos Rosa (+320)
Wuliji Buren (+135) Vs. Jonathan Martinez (-165)
The curtain jerker fight of the evening is a closely contested battle between Jackson-Wink’s Wuliji Buren and Factory X’s Jonathan Martinez. This is a tale of which trend you put more stock in as there’s a bunch of outliers with this battle. Jonathan Martinez has never fought outside of North America, which is something of a red flag for a young fighter in that first situation. On the other side, Wuliji Buren is just 2-5 in his last 7 fights, yet Jonathan Martinez has never been finished. If it sounds like I’m back and forth on this fight, you’re absolutely right. Both of these fighters are winless in the UFC at a combined record of 0-3 and truthfully I don’t trust either fighter with my money, but when forced to make a prediction, I’ll always take the underdog money.
The Pick: Wuliji Buren (+135)
