[h=1]How to bet New York-Buffalo[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 2 games, including the NYJ-Buffalo matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills[/h]Spread: opened Buffalo -3; now New York -1
Total: opened 41; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent New York
Public perception: The public is definitely siding with the Jets in this matchup, as they looked better in their narrow 23-22 loss to the Bengals than the Bills did in their 13-7 loss to the Ravens.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened with the Bills favored by 3 points at several books both here in Vegas and offshore, and sharp bettors grabbed the points right away. The support has continued, spurred on by the news that Buffalo wide receiverSammy Watkins (foot) might not play. However, as of Thursday morning, it looks likely that he will.
Dave Tuley's take: I liked the Jets coming into this season and still believe they are the better team after watching the Week 1 games. However, it's hard to bet them (meaning I'm not making the Jets a best bet) considering that the Bills have had their number -- winning the past five meetings, including both games last year. The better wager is to go under 40 points.
Both teams are built around their defenses (as both head coaches are former defensive coordinators) and played well in Week 1. Despite losing, the Bills held the Ravens to 13 points. The Jets were facing a great offensive team in the Bengals and held them to 23 points and mostly held them in check. If Watkins can't do his A.J. Green impersonation, the Bills will be less likely to have much success against the Jets' D. And remember, Sheldon Richardson is back, which will help that already stout New York defensive line.
The pick: Under 40 (lean to Jets -1).
Erin Rynning: I made the right call betting against the Bills in our Sunday selections last week. However, the betting markets quickly adjust, as demonstrated by an avalanche of Jets money showing so far in this contest. With a complete reversal of favorites, I'll now lean toward the Jets. Although Buffalo's D performed well in Week 1, its offense scored seven points and garnered just 160 total yards. It won't be any easier this week against the stout Jets front, while the Bills will be without tackle Cordy Glenn, and Watkins will be less than full speed (at best). This sets up as a defensive tug-of-war, so I'm taking the under.
Pick: Under 40 and lean Jets (-1).
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]227.5 Passing yards by Ryan Fitzpatrick (O/U -110)[/h]Nothing sours a career renaissance season like a lengthy contract disagreement with the team that rejuvenated you. Why did the Jets balk at the asking price for the quarterback who set their franchise passing-touchdown record? The answer is that the 33-year-old is a flawed quarterback, and no one knows that better than Rex Ryan.
In two games against Ryan's Bills last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 187 yards per game with four passing TDs and five interceptions. He averaged a yard and a half less per pass attempt against Buffalo last year (5.3) than his Jets average, including Week 1 of this year (6.9). It's fair to assume he'll improve somewhat, but even splitting the difference between his two averages leaves Fitzpatrick at 6.1 yards per attempt, which would require 38 pass attempts to reach -- something he's done in only six of his 17 games in a Jets uniform.
The play: under
[h=3]Will Eric Decker scored a receiving TD? (yes +130, no -150)[/h]
The Bills' defense was fairly effective last season in limiting the scoring of opponents' top receiving option. Buffalo was far more susceptible to secondary scoring options such as Donte Moncrief,Rishard Matthews, Rueben Randle,Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace, who all scored. Meanwhile, more accomplished teammates have gone scoreless in the past 17 games against Buffalo. That's only the list of guys who scored while their top option was shut out; it doesn't include the Chiefs (Travis Kelce/Jeremy Maclin), Patriots (Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski), Jaguars (Allen Hurns/Allen Robinson), Redskins (DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon) and both games against the Jets last year.
In all, secondary receivers scored in a surprisingly high 12 of Buffalo's 17 games since the start of last season. Given Buffalo's tendency to focus on the top option (in this case, Brandon Marshall), "yes" looks like a great play at +130. Factor in Decker's proclivity for the end zone (13 scores in 16 games since the start of last season, including this past Sunday against the Ravens), and it makes sense to root for No. 87.
The play: yes (+130)
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 2 games, including the NYJ-Buffalo matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: opened 41; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent New York
Public perception: The public is definitely siding with the Jets in this matchup, as they looked better in their narrow 23-22 loss to the Bengals than the Bills did in their 13-7 loss to the Ravens.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened with the Bills favored by 3 points at several books both here in Vegas and offshore, and sharp bettors grabbed the points right away. The support has continued, spurred on by the news that Buffalo wide receiverSammy Watkins (foot) might not play. However, as of Thursday morning, it looks likely that he will.
Dave Tuley's take: I liked the Jets coming into this season and still believe they are the better team after watching the Week 1 games. However, it's hard to bet them (meaning I'm not making the Jets a best bet) considering that the Bills have had their number -- winning the past five meetings, including both games last year. The better wager is to go under 40 points.
Both teams are built around their defenses (as both head coaches are former defensive coordinators) and played well in Week 1. Despite losing, the Bills held the Ravens to 13 points. The Jets were facing a great offensive team in the Bengals and held them to 23 points and mostly held them in check. If Watkins can't do his A.J. Green impersonation, the Bills will be less likely to have much success against the Jets' D. And remember, Sheldon Richardson is back, which will help that already stout New York defensive line.
The pick: Under 40 (lean to Jets -1).
Erin Rynning: I made the right call betting against the Bills in our Sunday selections last week. However, the betting markets quickly adjust, as demonstrated by an avalanche of Jets money showing so far in this contest. With a complete reversal of favorites, I'll now lean toward the Jets. Although Buffalo's D performed well in Week 1, its offense scored seven points and garnered just 160 total yards. It won't be any easier this week against the stout Jets front, while the Bills will be without tackle Cordy Glenn, and Watkins will be less than full speed (at best). This sets up as a defensive tug-of-war, so I'm taking the under.
Pick: Under 40 and lean Jets (-1).
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]227.5 Passing yards by Ryan Fitzpatrick (O/U -110)[/h]Nothing sours a career renaissance season like a lengthy contract disagreement with the team that rejuvenated you. Why did the Jets balk at the asking price for the quarterback who set their franchise passing-touchdown record? The answer is that the 33-year-old is a flawed quarterback, and no one knows that better than Rex Ryan.
In two games against Ryan's Bills last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 187 yards per game with four passing TDs and five interceptions. He averaged a yard and a half less per pass attempt against Buffalo last year (5.3) than his Jets average, including Week 1 of this year (6.9). It's fair to assume he'll improve somewhat, but even splitting the difference between his two averages leaves Fitzpatrick at 6.1 yards per attempt, which would require 38 pass attempts to reach -- something he's done in only six of his 17 games in a Jets uniform.
The play: under
[h=3]Will Eric Decker scored a receiving TD? (yes +130, no -150)[/h]
The Bills' defense was fairly effective last season in limiting the scoring of opponents' top receiving option. Buffalo was far more susceptible to secondary scoring options such as Donte Moncrief,Rishard Matthews, Rueben Randle,Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace, who all scored. Meanwhile, more accomplished teammates have gone scoreless in the past 17 games against Buffalo. That's only the list of guys who scored while their top option was shut out; it doesn't include the Chiefs (Travis Kelce/Jeremy Maclin), Patriots (Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski), Jaguars (Allen Hurns/Allen Robinson), Redskins (DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon) and both games against the Jets last year.
In all, secondary receivers scored in a surprisingly high 12 of Buffalo's 17 games since the start of last season. Given Buffalo's tendency to focus on the top option (in this case, Brandon Marshall), "yes" looks like a great play at +130. Factor in Decker's proclivity for the end zone (13 scores in 16 games since the start of last season, including this past Sunday against the Ravens), and it makes sense to root for No. 87.
The play: yes (+130)
