How to bet New Orleans-Atlanta
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Total: 51.5
PickCenter: 59 percent on New Orleans
Phil Steele
New Orleans rebounded nicely from a loss to the Los Angeles Rams with a home victory over the Carolina Panthers (with a 400-279 yardage edge). Atlanta has that same opportunity here, as this is a must-win game; a loss potentially drops the Falcons two games out of the wild-card spot with just three games to play. The Saints have the stronger team with the super quartet of Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas and Drew Brees. However, the defenses are pretty even, and Atlanta should get cornerback Desmond Trufant back, who missed last week. I will lean with the desperate home team that made it to the Super Bowl last year.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Erin Rynning
The Falcons are fresh off a tough loss against the Minnesota Vikings, but don't discount their impressive three-game winning streak before last Sunday. There's no shame in having your offense slowed by the Vikings' impressive defense. Yes, it's difficult to find fault with the Saints, but their highly ranked defense still has issues, displayed against the better offensive units they've played this year. The Falcons should have an advantage in a desperate spot.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Warren Sharp
As expected when we rode with the Vikings last week, the Falcons' high-flying offense, which appeared to right itself over the prior three games, fell flat. That was largely due to the Falcons' inability to get Julio Jones aggressively involved on first downs, as was their plan in the resurgent stretch of the season. At home against the Saints, the first of two games versus New Orleans within three weeks, they simply must figure out a way to accomplish that goal. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons' defense is a glaring weakness that few are discussing. They rank 24th in total defense and 31st against the run. Ingram was held out of practice on Tuesday and Wednesday with a toe injury, so whether he plays will certainly be a factor. The Falcons are far more desperate for this win and are at home on the short week, a role in which they've thrived.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: New Orleans 26, Atlanta 25
ATS pick: New Orleans and under 51.5 total points
John Parolin's prop bets
278.5 passing yards by Drew Brees (O/U -110)
New Orleans is the league's top rushing team this season. The Saints have used a two-pronged approach at running back with Ingram and Kamara, balancing the offense. Brees has averaged less than 275 yards per game this season, his lowest since his last season with the Chargers. Lightening the load on the 38-year-old quarterback has been a net positive for the 9-3 Saints, who are third in the league in scoring at 29.4 points per game. New Orleans is rushing on the highest percentage of their plays since 2009 (43 percent).
So is it a slam dunk under? Not by a long shot. Start with him reaching the over in five of his 12 games this year, the absolute height of New Orleans' capacity to run the ball. There's a mountain of evidence that ratio will not favor the run more, and he's already at almost 50-50. While the perception of the Saints' offense is shifting to a balanced unit, he's still Drew Brees. This is a quarterback who has thrown for at least 279 yards in 18 of his 22 games against the Falcons since 2006, his first year in New Orleans. His 8.1 yards per attempt average and 71.5 completion percentage both rank in the top three of all his seasons with the Saints, so he certainly hasn't lost his fastball. Finally, keep an eye on the status of Ingram. The leading rusher in that backfield has been dealing with a toe injury, while Kamara has never had more than 12 rushes in a game. Taking a few touches off Ingram's plate makes sense, if only to preserve him for what the Saints hope is a deep playoff run. Brees can pick up the slack.
Pick: Over
87.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
Jones against a rookie sounds like an amazing matchup on paper, until you see that the rookie is Marshon Lattimore. He has been outstanding this year, a candidate for defensive rookie of the year on a vastly improved Saints pass defense. Six wide receivers have reached 88 receiving yards against New Orleans this year, and of those, only two can really be considered top options (either Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen in Week 1 and Golden Tate in Week 6). Lattimore has played more than 86 percent of his snaps as a wide cornerback, so you can't blame him for Tate either. But who better to give a master class in the receiver-versus-cornerback matchups than Jones? This total is almost right at his season average (88.6), but he hasn't finished a game with a yardage total between 75-90 all year. His yardage has fluctuated wildly, with a 253-yard game in Week 12 to go with three games less than 60 yards. Averaging his 9.9 yards per target with New Orleans' season average to wide receivers gets you 8.8, requiring Jones to see 10 targets to hit the over. He's fallen short of that in seven of his 12 games this year, and Lattimore could make that eight.
Pick: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Total: 51.5
PickCenter: 59 percent on New Orleans
Phil Steele
New Orleans rebounded nicely from a loss to the Los Angeles Rams with a home victory over the Carolina Panthers (with a 400-279 yardage edge). Atlanta has that same opportunity here, as this is a must-win game; a loss potentially drops the Falcons two games out of the wild-card spot with just three games to play. The Saints have the stronger team with the super quartet of Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas and Drew Brees. However, the defenses are pretty even, and Atlanta should get cornerback Desmond Trufant back, who missed last week. I will lean with the desperate home team that made it to the Super Bowl last year.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Erin Rynning
The Falcons are fresh off a tough loss against the Minnesota Vikings, but don't discount their impressive three-game winning streak before last Sunday. There's no shame in having your offense slowed by the Vikings' impressive defense. Yes, it's difficult to find fault with the Saints, but their highly ranked defense still has issues, displayed against the better offensive units they've played this year. The Falcons should have an advantage in a desperate spot.
ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta
Warren Sharp
As expected when we rode with the Vikings last week, the Falcons' high-flying offense, which appeared to right itself over the prior three games, fell flat. That was largely due to the Falcons' inability to get Julio Jones aggressively involved on first downs, as was their plan in the resurgent stretch of the season. At home against the Saints, the first of two games versus New Orleans within three weeks, they simply must figure out a way to accomplish that goal. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons' defense is a glaring weakness that few are discussing. They rank 24th in total defense and 31st against the run. Ingram was held out of practice on Tuesday and Wednesday with a toe injury, so whether he plays will certainly be a factor. The Falcons are far more desperate for this win and are at home on the short week, a role in which they've thrived.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: New Orleans 26, Atlanta 25
ATS pick: New Orleans and under 51.5 total points
John Parolin's prop bets
278.5 passing yards by Drew Brees (O/U -110)
New Orleans is the league's top rushing team this season. The Saints have used a two-pronged approach at running back with Ingram and Kamara, balancing the offense. Brees has averaged less than 275 yards per game this season, his lowest since his last season with the Chargers. Lightening the load on the 38-year-old quarterback has been a net positive for the 9-3 Saints, who are third in the league in scoring at 29.4 points per game. New Orleans is rushing on the highest percentage of their plays since 2009 (43 percent).
So is it a slam dunk under? Not by a long shot. Start with him reaching the over in five of his 12 games this year, the absolute height of New Orleans' capacity to run the ball. There's a mountain of evidence that ratio will not favor the run more, and he's already at almost 50-50. While the perception of the Saints' offense is shifting to a balanced unit, he's still Drew Brees. This is a quarterback who has thrown for at least 279 yards in 18 of his 22 games against the Falcons since 2006, his first year in New Orleans. His 8.1 yards per attempt average and 71.5 completion percentage both rank in the top three of all his seasons with the Saints, so he certainly hasn't lost his fastball. Finally, keep an eye on the status of Ingram. The leading rusher in that backfield has been dealing with a toe injury, while Kamara has never had more than 12 rushes in a game. Taking a few touches off Ingram's plate makes sense, if only to preserve him for what the Saints hope is a deep playoff run. Brees can pick up the slack.
Pick: Over
87.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
Jones against a rookie sounds like an amazing matchup on paper, until you see that the rookie is Marshon Lattimore. He has been outstanding this year, a candidate for defensive rookie of the year on a vastly improved Saints pass defense. Six wide receivers have reached 88 receiving yards against New Orleans this year, and of those, only two can really be considered top options (either Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen in Week 1 and Golden Tate in Week 6). Lattimore has played more than 86 percent of his snaps as a wide cornerback, so you can't blame him for Tate either. But who better to give a master class in the receiver-versus-cornerback matchups than Jones? This total is almost right at his season average (88.6), but he hasn't finished a game with a yardage total between 75-90 all year. His yardage has fluctuated wildly, with a 253-yard game in Week 12 to go with three games less than 60 yards. Averaging his 9.9 yards per target with New Orleans' season average to wide receivers gets you 8.8, requiring Jones to see 10 targets to hit the over. He's fallen short of that in seven of his 12 games this year, and Lattimore could make that eight.
Pick: Under
