[h=1]How to bet Minnesota-Arizona[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Week 14 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley and Geoff Kulesa are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -7.5; now Arizona -9.5
Total: Opened 46; now 46.5
Dave Tuley: We have an intriguing matchup Thursday night with two teams that have already exceeded their over/under season wins totals. The Cardinals lead the NFC West, while the Vikings are tied with the Packers for the NFC North lead. This line looks<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> a little inflated and Minnesota is tempting to take at more than a touchdown, but I am leery after last week's 38-7 home loss against Seattle. The Vikings gained only 125 yards (and are No. 30 in total offense for the year) and the offense didn't get in the end zone. Now they have to go on the road and face an equally tough defense, as Arizona is No. 4 in total defense. Plus, they'll be without several starters on defense, including Harrison Smith,Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph.</offer>
The Cardinals lead the league with 419.5 yards of offense per game, but they've scored only 19 and 27 points in their last two games and should be content to get out with a victory. Besides, Arizona has stayed under in those last two games, while the Vikings are 7-2-3 with the under on the season and probably would have stayed under 43 last week if not for Cordarrelle Patterson's kickoff return when trailing 35-0.
The pick: Under 46.5.
Wunderdog: The Minnesota offense is fifth in the NFL in rushing at 136.8 yards per game, but the defense has injuries and just gave up 38 points to conservative, run-oriented Seattle at home. The Vikings' secondary took a beating Sunday, so the team placed safety Antone Exum Jr. on injured reserve, brought back safety Shaun Prater and promoted rookie safety Anthony Harrisfrom the practice squad. The Vikings also lost a key reserve on the defensive line. They head to Arizona, a warm and dry stadium that can help offenses.
The Cardinals have ripped off six consecutive victories and lead the NFL in scoring with 31.8 points behind QB Carson Palmer (29 TDs, 9 INTs). VeteranLarry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 1,000 career receptions on Sunday, while fellow wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown each went over 100 yards. With running backs Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington injured in a Week 12 victory at San Francisco, rookie David Johnson filled the void by rushing for 99 yards and catching a TD pass in his first NFL start, a 27-3 rout of St. Louis. The Vikings are 8-1 to the over in their last nine games against great offensive teams like Arizona (teams averaging 6-plus yards per play). Take the over in this one.
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]308.5 pass yards by Carson Palmer (O/U -110)
Palmer is averaging 308 pass yards per game this season, which makes this a pretty simple bet. Before looking at the Vikings' defense, let's get a sense of the opposition Palmer has played this year. His divisional schedule hasn't been the easiest to throw on, with four games against the 49ers and Rams (who both rank in the top three in fewest pass yards allowed) and one against the Seahawks. But facing the surprisingly pass-friendly AFC North and games against the Lions and Saints evened out Palmer's season. Except it didn't go how you'd think -- Palmer torched his divisional rivals for easy overs in five of his six games despite their lofty rankings.
The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest pass yards in the league this season, but Palmer's going to take his shots. He's thrown for 1,624 yards on throws at least 15 yards downfield, 34 more than any other quarterback this season. Though the Vikings rank 15th in overall yards allowed, they are 15th in completion percentage and 20th in yards per attempt on those deep throws. It's a critical part of the Cardinals' offense, and the Vikings don't stop it as well as their overall rank suggests.
The play: Over
Will Adrian Peterson score a touchdown? (O/U -110)
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Peterson has eight rushing touchdowns this season and no receiving TDs. Peterson's touchdowns were distributed over six games, leaving six scoreless games and giving a base justification for the pick-'em line. But there are two factors working in Peterson's favor. First, he complained about the coaching and game plan again -- the last time that happened he rushed for 187 yards and scored twice in his next game against the Falcons. Not the hardest-hitting analytical observation, but it certainly doesn't make the Vikings less likely to feed Peterson.
The second is a little more applicable in this space. The Cardinals have done a lot of things very well this season, but red zone defense is not one of them. Arizona has allowed touchdowns on 62 percent of red zone possessions, 24th in the league. That jumps to 82 percent in goal-to-go situations, fifth worst in the league. Those scores have come both on the ground and by air, with the Cardinals' defense surrendering seven red zone rushing touchdowns, tied for 16th. Peterson will get his chance and take advantage in this game.
The play: Yes
ESPN INSIDER
Week 14 of the NFL season is set to begin with a Thursday night matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley and Geoff Kulesa are here to provide analysis of the game, while John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information reveals the best prop bets. It's all here in ESPN Chalk's Thursday Night Primer.
Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 46; now 46.5
Dave Tuley: We have an intriguing matchup Thursday night with two teams that have already exceeded their over/under season wins totals. The Cardinals lead the NFC West, while the Vikings are tied with the Packers for the NFC North lead. This line looks<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> a little inflated and Minnesota is tempting to take at more than a touchdown, but I am leery after last week's 38-7 home loss against Seattle. The Vikings gained only 125 yards (and are No. 30 in total offense for the year) and the offense didn't get in the end zone. Now they have to go on the road and face an equally tough defense, as Arizona is No. 4 in total defense. Plus, they'll be without several starters on defense, including Harrison Smith,Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph.</offer>
The Cardinals lead the league with 419.5 yards of offense per game, but they've scored only 19 and 27 points in their last two games and should be content to get out with a victory. Besides, Arizona has stayed under in those last two games, while the Vikings are 7-2-3 with the under on the season and probably would have stayed under 43 last week if not for Cordarrelle Patterson's kickoff return when trailing 35-0.
The pick: Under 46.5.
Wunderdog: The Minnesota offense is fifth in the NFL in rushing at 136.8 yards per game, but the defense has injuries and just gave up 38 points to conservative, run-oriented Seattle at home. The Vikings' secondary took a beating Sunday, so the team placed safety Antone Exum Jr. on injured reserve, brought back safety Shaun Prater and promoted rookie safety Anthony Harrisfrom the practice squad. The Vikings also lost a key reserve on the defensive line. They head to Arizona, a warm and dry stadium that can help offenses.
The Cardinals have ripped off six consecutive victories and lead the NFL in scoring with 31.8 points behind QB Carson Palmer (29 TDs, 9 INTs). VeteranLarry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 1,000 career receptions on Sunday, while fellow wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown each went over 100 yards. With running backs Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington injured in a Week 12 victory at San Francisco, rookie David Johnson filled the void by rushing for 99 yards and catching a TD pass in his first NFL start, a 27-3 rout of St. Louis. The Vikings are 8-1 to the over in their last nine games against great offensive teams like Arizona (teams averaging 6-plus yards per play). Take the over in this one.
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]308.5 pass yards by Carson Palmer (O/U -110)
Palmer is averaging 308 pass yards per game this season, which makes this a pretty simple bet. Before looking at the Vikings' defense, let's get a sense of the opposition Palmer has played this year. His divisional schedule hasn't been the easiest to throw on, with four games against the 49ers and Rams (who both rank in the top three in fewest pass yards allowed) and one against the Seahawks. But facing the surprisingly pass-friendly AFC North and games against the Lions and Saints evened out Palmer's season. Except it didn't go how you'd think -- Palmer torched his divisional rivals for easy overs in five of his six games despite their lofty rankings.
The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest pass yards in the league this season, but Palmer's going to take his shots. He's thrown for 1,624 yards on throws at least 15 yards downfield, 34 more than any other quarterback this season. Though the Vikings rank 15th in overall yards allowed, they are 15th in completion percentage and 20th in yards per attempt on those deep throws. It's a critical part of the Cardinals' offense, and the Vikings don't stop it as well as their overall rank suggests.
The play: Over
Will Adrian Peterson score a touchdown? (O/U -110)
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</article>Peterson has eight rushing touchdowns this season and no receiving TDs. Peterson's touchdowns were distributed over six games, leaving six scoreless games and giving a base justification for the pick-'em line. But there are two factors working in Peterson's favor. First, he complained about the coaching and game plan again -- the last time that happened he rushed for 187 yards and scored twice in his next game against the Falcons. Not the hardest-hitting analytical observation, but it certainly doesn't make the Vikings less likely to feed Peterson.
The second is a little more applicable in this space. The Cardinals have done a lot of things very well this season, but red zone defense is not one of them. Arizona has allowed touchdowns on 62 percent of red zone possessions, 24th in the league. That jumps to 82 percent in goal-to-go situations, fifth worst in the league. Those scores have come both on the ground and by air, with the Cardinals' defense surrendering seven red zone rushing touchdowns, tied for 16th. Peterson will get his chance and take advantage in this game.
The play: Yes
