How to bet Miami-Cincinnati
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 4 games, beginning with the Miami-Cincinnati matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Matchup: Miami Dolphins atCincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Cincinnati -6; now Cincinnati -7.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Cincinnati
Public perception: The public is siding with the Bengals, a more popular team these days, and the Dolphins' performance on Sunday -- they needed overtime to beat the Browns and didn't cover for backers -- certainly doesn't help them garner support.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharp bettors snapped up Cincinnati -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and -6.5 at other books, but they're more split now that the line is at the key number of 7. Some more will likely come in on Miami now that it's up to 7.5 at several books.
Dave Tuley's take: The Bengals are 1-2 SU and ATS, but that's not something to hold against them, as they've faced the New York Jets, Pittsburgh and Denver. The Dolphins are 1-2 SU and ATS against a struggling Seattle team, New England and Cleveland. I expect the Bengals to bounce back with the step down in class. I could understand someone wanting to lay less than a touchdown, but I'd pass now. I actually like the under, as the Dolphins' offense -- No. 18, and only that high after facing the Patriots' prevent defense in the second half as well as the Browns -- should have problems with the Bengals' D. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton & Co. should be able to grind out a victory. A score around 23-16 looks about right, though I expect the Dolphins to score even less.
The pick: Under 44.5* (lean to Bengals -7)
Rufus Peabody: I expected a much better performance from the Cincinnati defense at home last week against a young, inexperienced quarterback. The Bengals' game plan clearly was to load up against the run and make Trevor Siemian beat them with his arm -- and to his credit, he did. I thought the game would come down to Cincy's pass offense against Denver's pass defense, and that was clearly won by Denver.
Priors still hold significant weight in the Massey-Peabody model at this point, so while Cincinnati's rating drops, it's only by three-quarters of a point. Despite needing overtime to squeak by the NFL's worst team, the Dolphins' performance rated in the top half of the league, even after opponent adjustment, in part because they had to overcome a minus-2 turnover differential. Overall, though, I don't much disagree with the market on this game. In fact, I make the line exactly 7.
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -7
Pick: pass
Erin Rynning: New Dolphins coach Adam Gase was essentially brought in to move Ryan Tannehill forward on his NFL quarterback journey. After a sluggish start in Seattle against a top-notch defense, this offense has taken a step forward the last two weeks against New England and Cleveland, with Tannehill throwing for over 700 yards in his two outings. As Denver proved last week, the Bengals' defense is susceptible to the big play, which fits the Dolphins' mentality.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are finding it difficult to find the right balance on offense. After throwing the football the majority of plays the first two weeks, they tried to rely on the run Sunday against Denver. Eventually, the Broncos' defense adjusted and went on to win the second half. In fact, the Bengals have faced two strong defensive units in Denver and the Jets, with the Steelers mixed in, and this will be the worst defense team they've faced this season. Look for both teams to have success with the pass, sending this game over the total.
The pick: Over 44.5.
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]72.5 Receiving yards by Jarvis Landry (O/U -110)
Three players in the league have more than 20 receptions and over 300 yards this season -- Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry. It's no fluke -- Landry's workload is consistent, as he's also one of only four players in the league with 10 targets in each of his first three games.
But is the consistent workload enough against the Bengals defense? Take, for example, the way they shut down Brown in Week 2. Cincinnati cornerbackAdam Jones limited Brown to 4 receptions on 11 targets for 39 yards, a player similar enough in profile to the 5-foot-11 Landry to give pause. But Brown's second wide receiver in that game was Sammie Coates, a player less worthy of extra attention than Devante Parker. Also, anyone who watched the AFC playoffs last year knows Bengals-Steelers game are a different breed. A week later, Jones was the primary culprit on a 41-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders, who finished the day with 117 yards -- the most by anyone against the Bengals defense this season. Landry can reach 73.
The play: Over
21 completions by Andy Dalton (O/U -110)
The Dolphins have ceded 75 completions through three games this season, between 24 and 27 in all three games. Dalton hasn't finished below 21 in a game yet this season, including two "overs." On the surface, 21 seems low -- but on a short week, is there a path to an under? For example, the Dolphins offense has seven turnovers through three games this season, the recipe for a quick deficit on the road. Only six teams have a worse turnover margin this season than Miami.
Miami has trailed all three games at halftime this season by an average of nine points per game. The ball is in Dalton's hands this season -- the Bengals have passed on 70 percent of plays this season, sixth highest in the league. They've only had 12 plays with a lead this season, and they'll run the ball more with a lead. But at Dalton's stellar 65 percent completion percentage this season, all he needs is 34 pass attempts to hit 22 completions.
The play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 4 games, beginning with the Miami-Cincinnati matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Spread: Opened Cincinnati -6; now Cincinnati -7.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Cincinnati
Public perception: The public is siding with the Bengals, a more popular team these days, and the Dolphins' performance on Sunday -- they needed overtime to beat the Browns and didn't cover for backers -- certainly doesn't help them garner support.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharp bettors snapped up Cincinnati -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and -6.5 at other books, but they're more split now that the line is at the key number of 7. Some more will likely come in on Miami now that it's up to 7.5 at several books.
Dave Tuley's take: The Bengals are 1-2 SU and ATS, but that's not something to hold against them, as they've faced the New York Jets, Pittsburgh and Denver. The Dolphins are 1-2 SU and ATS against a struggling Seattle team, New England and Cleveland. I expect the Bengals to bounce back with the step down in class. I could understand someone wanting to lay less than a touchdown, but I'd pass now. I actually like the under, as the Dolphins' offense -- No. 18, and only that high after facing the Patriots' prevent defense in the second half as well as the Browns -- should have problems with the Bengals' D. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton & Co. should be able to grind out a victory. A score around 23-16 looks about right, though I expect the Dolphins to score even less.
The pick: Under 44.5* (lean to Bengals -7)
Rufus Peabody: I expected a much better performance from the Cincinnati defense at home last week against a young, inexperienced quarterback. The Bengals' game plan clearly was to load up against the run and make Trevor Siemian beat them with his arm -- and to his credit, he did. I thought the game would come down to Cincy's pass offense against Denver's pass defense, and that was clearly won by Denver.
Priors still hold significant weight in the Massey-Peabody model at this point, so while Cincinnati's rating drops, it's only by three-quarters of a point. Despite needing overtime to squeak by the NFL's worst team, the Dolphins' performance rated in the top half of the league, even after opponent adjustment, in part because they had to overcome a minus-2 turnover differential. Overall, though, I don't much disagree with the market on this game. In fact, I make the line exactly 7.
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -7
Pick: pass
Erin Rynning: New Dolphins coach Adam Gase was essentially brought in to move Ryan Tannehill forward on his NFL quarterback journey. After a sluggish start in Seattle against a top-notch defense, this offense has taken a step forward the last two weeks against New England and Cleveland, with Tannehill throwing for over 700 yards in his two outings. As Denver proved last week, the Bengals' defense is susceptible to the big play, which fits the Dolphins' mentality.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are finding it difficult to find the right balance on offense. After throwing the football the majority of plays the first two weeks, they tried to rely on the run Sunday against Denver. Eventually, the Broncos' defense adjusted and went on to win the second half. In fact, the Bengals have faced two strong defensive units in Denver and the Jets, with the Steelers mixed in, and this will be the worst defense team they've faced this season. Look for both teams to have success with the pass, sending this game over the total.
The pick: Over 44.5.
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]72.5 Receiving yards by Jarvis Landry (O/U -110)
Three players in the league have more than 20 receptions and over 300 yards this season -- Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry. It's no fluke -- Landry's workload is consistent, as he's also one of only four players in the league with 10 targets in each of his first three games.
But is the consistent workload enough against the Bengals defense? Take, for example, the way they shut down Brown in Week 2. Cincinnati cornerbackAdam Jones limited Brown to 4 receptions on 11 targets for 39 yards, a player similar enough in profile to the 5-foot-11 Landry to give pause. But Brown's second wide receiver in that game was Sammie Coates, a player less worthy of extra attention than Devante Parker. Also, anyone who watched the AFC playoffs last year knows Bengals-Steelers game are a different breed. A week later, Jones was the primary culprit on a 41-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders, who finished the day with 117 yards -- the most by anyone against the Bengals defense this season. Landry can reach 73.
The play: Over
21 completions by Andy Dalton (O/U -110)
The Dolphins have ceded 75 completions through three games this season, between 24 and 27 in all three games. Dalton hasn't finished below 21 in a game yet this season, including two "overs." On the surface, 21 seems low -- but on a short week, is there a path to an under? For example, the Dolphins offense has seven turnovers through three games this season, the recipe for a quick deficit on the road. Only six teams have a worse turnover margin this season than Miami.
Miami has trailed all three games at halftime this season by an average of nine points per game. The ball is in Dalton's hands this season -- the Bengals have passed on 70 percent of plays this season, sixth highest in the league. They've only had 12 plays with a lead this season, and they'll run the ball more with a lead. But at Dalton's stellar 65 percent completion percentage this season, all he needs is 34 pass attempts to hit 22 completions.
The play: Over
