How To Bet Thursday Night's 49ers-Cardinals NFL Game
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 5 games, starting with Thursday night's Arizona-San Francisco matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -2.5; now Arizona -4
Total: Opened 42; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Arizona
Public perception: The Cardinals are 1-3 and probably will have to start Drew Stanton at quarterback in place of Carson Palmer, but the public is still more willing to back Arizona than the 49ers.
Wiseguys' view: This line was off the board on Sunday afternoon but was posted on Monday morning and sharps jumped in with the public to bet it from Arizona -2.5, through the key number of 3. It went as high as Arizona -4.5 on Tuesday morning, but has come back down to 3.5 at most books as of Wednesday afternoon, though Westgate was holding the line at 4.
Dave Tuley's take: I would usually love to back a home underdog like this in prime time against a division rival -- especially after I cashed with the 49ers in Week 1 against the Rams -- but I can't pull the trigger here.
For one thing, our NFL Vegas rankings have the Cardinals 8.5 points better than the 49ers, so we have this line closer to a full touchdown, even with San Francisco's home-field advantage. Granted, that's without accounting for Palmer being out, but I also don't think the Cardinals should be downgraded too much as Stanton has filled in just fine for Palmer in the past. In addition, the 49ers' defense has lost leader Navorro Bowman, so that makes me less confident that San Francisco can contain the Cardinals' offense.
That being said, I like this game to stay under the total. Even if Arizona scores in the 20s, I don't see the 49ers' offense doing enough to add to the total points. I believe that this can stay under, even if the Cardinals have a defensive touchdown (two would make me less confident).
The pick: Under 43* (lean to Cardinals -4)
Rufus Peabody:
Arizona is without Palmer this week in a game they really have to win to right their season. In his stead, Stanton looks to channel his 2014 self, when he went 5-3 filling in for the oft-injured Palmer. The drop-off from Palmer to Stanton is worth 2.4 points, according to the Massey-Peabody model, a number about on par with a typical drop-off from starter to backup QB. Bruce Arians offenses have always favored a vertical passing game, and Stanton's 2014 numbers on throws 20-plus yards downfield (38.6 percent completion rate, 11.5 yards per attempt) are comparable to Palmer's since 2014 (43.0 percent completion rate, 11.6 yards per attempt). Where the two quarterbacks' numbers diverge dramatically is in the short to intermediate passing game, where Stanton's numbers (42.0 percent play success rate, 5.6 yards per attempt) are dwarfed by Palmer's (55.6 percent play success rate, 7.2 yards per attempt).
Luckily for Arizona, San Francisco's defense has struggled on throws downfield, allowing opponents to complete 14-of-22 passes for 447 yards this season. The line on this game has been bet down to Arizona -3.5. At +4.5, I'd play San Francisco, and at +4, I'd make it a lean. No play at +3.5, though. My total of 44.1 does not differ significantly from the market's number of 43.5.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Arizona -2.0; total: 44.1
Erin Rynning: The San Francisco franchise continues to be a disaster, compounded in the offseason by hiring Chip Kelly as its head coach. Between the continual talent erosion on the roster and Kelly's inability to coach this team to wins, it will continue to be an uphill battle for the 49ers. Making matters worse for the remainder of the season is the loss of standout defensive player Bowman, while they'll also be missing other key defensive pieces for this matchup.
Of course, the Cardinals will be without Palmer, and are on their own two-game losing streak. However, Arizona has the offensive talent to surround Stanton with playmaking options -- and again, the 49ers' defensive injuries ease the concerns at quarterback.
Note Kelly's offense is one of the least sophisticated in the NFL, so the short week doesn't hurt the prep for the Cardinals' defense. This Arizona team did demolish Kelly's Philadelphia squad 40-17 last December, so the familiarity is somewhat fresh.
Pick: Cardinals
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 5 games, starting with Thursday night's Arizona-San Francisco matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -2.5; now Arizona -4
Total: Opened 42; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent Arizona
Public perception: The Cardinals are 1-3 and probably will have to start Drew Stanton at quarterback in place of Carson Palmer, but the public is still more willing to back Arizona than the 49ers.
Wiseguys' view: This line was off the board on Sunday afternoon but was posted on Monday morning and sharps jumped in with the public to bet it from Arizona -2.5, through the key number of 3. It went as high as Arizona -4.5 on Tuesday morning, but has come back down to 3.5 at most books as of Wednesday afternoon, though Westgate was holding the line at 4.
Dave Tuley's take: I would usually love to back a home underdog like this in prime time against a division rival -- especially after I cashed with the 49ers in Week 1 against the Rams -- but I can't pull the trigger here.
For one thing, our NFL Vegas rankings have the Cardinals 8.5 points better than the 49ers, so we have this line closer to a full touchdown, even with San Francisco's home-field advantage. Granted, that's without accounting for Palmer being out, but I also don't think the Cardinals should be downgraded too much as Stanton has filled in just fine for Palmer in the past. In addition, the 49ers' defense has lost leader Navorro Bowman, so that makes me less confident that San Francisco can contain the Cardinals' offense.
That being said, I like this game to stay under the total. Even if Arizona scores in the 20s, I don't see the 49ers' offense doing enough to add to the total points. I believe that this can stay under, even if the Cardinals have a defensive touchdown (two would make me less confident).
The pick: Under 43* (lean to Cardinals -4)
Rufus Peabody:
Arizona is without Palmer this week in a game they really have to win to right their season. In his stead, Stanton looks to channel his 2014 self, when he went 5-3 filling in for the oft-injured Palmer. The drop-off from Palmer to Stanton is worth 2.4 points, according to the Massey-Peabody model, a number about on par with a typical drop-off from starter to backup QB. Bruce Arians offenses have always favored a vertical passing game, and Stanton's 2014 numbers on throws 20-plus yards downfield (38.6 percent completion rate, 11.5 yards per attempt) are comparable to Palmer's since 2014 (43.0 percent completion rate, 11.6 yards per attempt). Where the two quarterbacks' numbers diverge dramatically is in the short to intermediate passing game, where Stanton's numbers (42.0 percent play success rate, 5.6 yards per attempt) are dwarfed by Palmer's (55.6 percent play success rate, 7.2 yards per attempt).
Luckily for Arizona, San Francisco's defense has struggled on throws downfield, allowing opponents to complete 14-of-22 passes for 447 yards this season. The line on this game has been bet down to Arizona -3.5. At +4.5, I'd play San Francisco, and at +4, I'd make it a lean. No play at +3.5, though. My total of 44.1 does not differ significantly from the market's number of 43.5.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Arizona -2.0; total: 44.1
Erin Rynning: The San Francisco franchise continues to be a disaster, compounded in the offseason by hiring Chip Kelly as its head coach. Between the continual talent erosion on the roster and Kelly's inability to coach this team to wins, it will continue to be an uphill battle for the 49ers. Making matters worse for the remainder of the season is the loss of standout defensive player Bowman, while they'll also be missing other key defensive pieces for this matchup.
Of course, the Cardinals will be without Palmer, and are on their own two-game losing streak. However, Arizona has the offensive talent to surround Stanton with playmaking options -- and again, the 49ers' defensive injuries ease the concerns at quarterback.
Note Kelly's offense is one of the least sophisticated in the NFL, so the short week doesn't hurt the prep for the Cardinals' defense. This Arizona team did demolish Kelly's Philadelphia squad 40-17 last December, so the familiarity is somewhat fresh.
Pick: Cardinals
