How to bet the Jeff Horn-Manny Pacquiao fight
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
6/30/17
This Saturday night, as part of the newly aligned Top Rank Boxing and ESPN mega TV deal, WBO welterweight champion Manny "PacMan" Pacquiao (59-6-2, 38 KOs) will put his title on the line against Australian native Jeff "The Hornet" Horn (16-0-1, 11 KOs). This fight will take place in Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Australia and begins at 9 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Let's look at where the money is going, along with opinions from boxing experts, trainers and my pick for the fight.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, opened the fight with Pacquiao -600 and Horn +450. "Pacquiao support has driven the price to -650/+475, but ticket count is fairly even," said Sherman. Sherman posted the total of the fight at 9.5 rounds over -215 and under +165. He got solid action on the under, dropping the line to -185/+165.
Sherman also posted the following prop bets:
Westgate LV SuperBook Props
METHOD OF VICTORY PACQUIAO HORN
KO +120 8-1
Decision -110 12-1
Draw 25-1 25-1
At William Hill US, senior trader Adam Pullen opened the fight higher Pacquiao -750 and Horn +525. He now sits at -650/+475, getting closer to market odds but has seen some significant large wagers on Pacquiao this week. "Ticket ratio is 3-to-1 in favor of Horn but more money is on Pacquiao," Pullen told me. He posted the total of the fight at 9.5 rounds over -200 and under +175. Like Sherman at the Westgate, he got hit on the under and now sits at the same -185/+165.
"It will be interesting to see what action we get on fight day with the fight being on ESPN, but I have not heard of Horn, and many of the people I have spoken to haven't either -- so I'm not expecting the usual underdog action we get when a price is this high," Pullen said.
Experts weigh in
• Evan Young (boxing sharp): "Manny Pacquiao, who needs no introduction the world over, is fighting a relative unknown in Jeff Horn. However, he is not a bad fighter. An Olympian from Australia, Horn is undefeated with his best wins coming against aged -- but still useful -- Randall Bailey and Ali Funeka. Horn has energy, skills and hits solidly. And I expect Horn to give a good effort, but I don't think he can do enough to get the win. Pacquiao isn't [the fighter] he once was, but he is still quite proficient as a fighter and has become a master-class boxer. I expect a brisk, reasonably competitive contest with Pacquiao coming out on top by an 8-4 or 9-3 type of margin."
• Eric Bradley (boxing trainer): "Pacquiao wins to position himself for another large payday and uplifting his ego from the dumps via unanimous decision."
• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "Based on his two outings last year, Pacquiao should have no problems winning this fight against Horn. Although the Australian will have the home advantage, I can't see him causing Manny any problems. I think PacMan can take advantage of Horn's lack of experience at this level and score his first stoppage victory in eight years. Pacquiao TKO before eight rounds have been completed."
• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "For this fight, I would tell Manny to take a page [from] Joshua Greer Jr. and bring a pillow with him to the ring because Horn is going to need it. Pacman will be too fast and strong for Horn, which will lead to a late stoppage or TKO. Manny Pacquiao by TKO in the ninth round."
Tale Of The Tape
PACQUIAO HORN
Wins 59 16
Lost 6 0
KOs 15 11
Draws 2 1
Total Bouts 67 17
KO% 56% 86%
Height 5-5 1/2 5-9
Reach 67" 68"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Hometown Philippines Australia
Age 38 29
Pacquiao: The 38-year old fighting out of his home country (the Philippines) truly needs no introduction. He might only be the best "active" welterweight right now, although he is also a congressman in his native Philippines. Fans across the world have not only enjoyed watching him on TV, but he has fought in five different countries in his career: China, USA, Japan, Philippines, Thailand. This will be his first visit to Australia and there is an expected crowd of nearly 60,000 fans to see one of boxing's icons as well as Horn, their native son.
Pacquiao is 17-3-2 in world title fights and 8-2 as a welterweight. His only losses at welterweight were to longtime nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez by horrific KO and Floyd Mayweather UD, who is truly one of boxing's top welterweights ever. It has been eight years since Pacquiao has scored a KO (his last over Miguel Cotto in November of 2009), the longest stretch without a KO in his career.
Horn: The 29-year old fighting out of Brisbane, Australia is a relative unknown to boxing fans. This will be his first world title fight, but he hasn't fought in 204 days -- the longest layoff in his career. He is nicknamed the "Hornet" for his smothering style, but he leaves himself open and has been knocked down in two of his past three fights -- but won both by TKO. Along with being a prize fighter, Horn is a gym teacher. He has three straight wins by KO and six in his past 10 fights.
He sports an 86 percent KO average, but looking over his resume, the only notable opponents are Ali Funeka (whom he stopped in his last fight in December of 2016) and Randall Bailey (who quit on his stool after round seven in April of 2016). He is taking a major step up in competition and will need to fight the fight of his life or have Father Time catch up with Pacquiao to win.
Betting the fight
The panel above is dead set on Pacquiao to win. I don't lay odds that high but think the KO drought stops and Pacquiao scores a stoppage before round nine.
My pick: Pacquiao by KO +120 or better.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
6/30/17
This Saturday night, as part of the newly aligned Top Rank Boxing and ESPN mega TV deal, WBO welterweight champion Manny "PacMan" Pacquiao (59-6-2, 38 KOs) will put his title on the line against Australian native Jeff "The Hornet" Horn (16-0-1, 11 KOs). This fight will take place in Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Australia and begins at 9 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Let's look at where the money is going, along with opinions from boxing experts, trainers and my pick for the fight.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, opened the fight with Pacquiao -600 and Horn +450. "Pacquiao support has driven the price to -650/+475, but ticket count is fairly even," said Sherman. Sherman posted the total of the fight at 9.5 rounds over -215 and under +165. He got solid action on the under, dropping the line to -185/+165.
Sherman also posted the following prop bets:
Westgate LV SuperBook Props
METHOD OF VICTORY PACQUIAO HORN
KO +120 8-1
Decision -110 12-1
Draw 25-1 25-1
At William Hill US, senior trader Adam Pullen opened the fight higher Pacquiao -750 and Horn +525. He now sits at -650/+475, getting closer to market odds but has seen some significant large wagers on Pacquiao this week. "Ticket ratio is 3-to-1 in favor of Horn but more money is on Pacquiao," Pullen told me. He posted the total of the fight at 9.5 rounds over -200 and under +175. Like Sherman at the Westgate, he got hit on the under and now sits at the same -185/+165.
"It will be interesting to see what action we get on fight day with the fight being on ESPN, but I have not heard of Horn, and many of the people I have spoken to haven't either -- so I'm not expecting the usual underdog action we get when a price is this high," Pullen said.
Experts weigh in
• Evan Young (boxing sharp): "Manny Pacquiao, who needs no introduction the world over, is fighting a relative unknown in Jeff Horn. However, he is not a bad fighter. An Olympian from Australia, Horn is undefeated with his best wins coming against aged -- but still useful -- Randall Bailey and Ali Funeka. Horn has energy, skills and hits solidly. And I expect Horn to give a good effort, but I don't think he can do enough to get the win. Pacquiao isn't [the fighter] he once was, but he is still quite proficient as a fighter and has become a master-class boxer. I expect a brisk, reasonably competitive contest with Pacquiao coming out on top by an 8-4 or 9-3 type of margin."
• Eric Bradley (boxing trainer): "Pacquiao wins to position himself for another large payday and uplifting his ego from the dumps via unanimous decision."
• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "Based on his two outings last year, Pacquiao should have no problems winning this fight against Horn. Although the Australian will have the home advantage, I can't see him causing Manny any problems. I think PacMan can take advantage of Horn's lack of experience at this level and score his first stoppage victory in eight years. Pacquiao TKO before eight rounds have been completed."
• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "For this fight, I would tell Manny to take a page [from] Joshua Greer Jr. and bring a pillow with him to the ring because Horn is going to need it. Pacman will be too fast and strong for Horn, which will lead to a late stoppage or TKO. Manny Pacquiao by TKO in the ninth round."
Tale Of The Tape
PACQUIAO HORN
Wins 59 16
Lost 6 0
KOs 15 11
Draws 2 1
Total Bouts 67 17
KO% 56% 86%
Height 5-5 1/2 5-9
Reach 67" 68"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Hometown Philippines Australia
Age 38 29
Pacquiao: The 38-year old fighting out of his home country (the Philippines) truly needs no introduction. He might only be the best "active" welterweight right now, although he is also a congressman in his native Philippines. Fans across the world have not only enjoyed watching him on TV, but he has fought in five different countries in his career: China, USA, Japan, Philippines, Thailand. This will be his first visit to Australia and there is an expected crowd of nearly 60,000 fans to see one of boxing's icons as well as Horn, their native son.
Pacquiao is 17-3-2 in world title fights and 8-2 as a welterweight. His only losses at welterweight were to longtime nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez by horrific KO and Floyd Mayweather UD, who is truly one of boxing's top welterweights ever. It has been eight years since Pacquiao has scored a KO (his last over Miguel Cotto in November of 2009), the longest stretch without a KO in his career.
Horn: The 29-year old fighting out of Brisbane, Australia is a relative unknown to boxing fans. This will be his first world title fight, but he hasn't fought in 204 days -- the longest layoff in his career. He is nicknamed the "Hornet" for his smothering style, but he leaves himself open and has been knocked down in two of his past three fights -- but won both by TKO. Along with being a prize fighter, Horn is a gym teacher. He has three straight wins by KO and six in his past 10 fights.
He sports an 86 percent KO average, but looking over his resume, the only notable opponents are Ali Funeka (whom he stopped in his last fight in December of 2016) and Randall Bailey (who quit on his stool after round seven in April of 2016). He is taking a major step up in competition and will need to fight the fight of his life or have Father Time catch up with Pacquiao to win.
Betting the fight
The panel above is dead set on Pacquiao to win. I don't lay odds that high but think the KO drought stops and Pacquiao scores a stoppage before round nine.
My pick: Pacquiao by KO +120 or better.
