[h=1]How to bet New England-Arizona[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The first Sunday night game of the NFL season features two of last year's top teams, as the Cardinals host the Patriots. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game and give their picks against the spread, on the total and on a prop bet.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Arizona -7
Total: Opened 51; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Arizona
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[h=2]Against the spread[/h]Public perception: The Cardinals have increased in popularity with the public in recent years, but they're nowhere near the public team that the Patriots are. However, with Tom Brady suspended and now with Rob Gronkowski out with a hamstring injury, bettors are having no problem jumping on Arizona.
Wiseguys' view: This game actually opened pick 'em when the schedule was first released and early speculators (guessing right that Brady's Deflategate suspension could be reinstated) grabbed Arizona and made it a small favorite for the Cardinals. The line was adjusted to around 4.5 after the suspension happened and the money continued to flow in on the Cardinals. However, there are plenty of sharps waiting to take the Patriots with as many points as possible.
Dave Tuley's take: I certainly respect the Cardinals for their balance -- a high-powered offense and outstanding ball-hawking defense -- but it's my opinion that this line is inflated. I'm not denying that Brady and Gronk are worth several points to the spread, however, this is basically the second straight training camp where Bill Belichick has been able to groom Jimmy Garoppolo to take over, so he's going to be prepared. They've also had all offseason to prepare for Arizona's schemes, so while I'm not arguing this should be pick 'em like the opening line, getting the Patriots at anything more than a field goal would be value (and I'm licking my chops as it has moved to a full touchdown).
Note on the total: I also believe that's overadjusted from 51 all the way down to 44.5. Even without Brady, these are two of the best offenses in the league, plus the defenses are capable of scores as well.
The pick: Patriots +7* (lean to the over 44.5).
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Erin Rynning: With the emergence of running back David Johnson and gradual build of their offensive line, the Cardinals now possess a potent two-way offense. Obviously this was on display last season, as the Cardinals featured the No. 1 offense in the NFL in yardage per game.
Last season, the Patriots rarely matched up against a versatile offense like the Cardinals, and especially not a top-notch passing game. Everyone will be watching to see how Garoppolo fares under center. The Patriots did have the entire preseason to prepare their young signal-caller for this Week 1 spotlight contest, which we can count as a positive. The loss of Gronkowski will keep this a lean, but look for the Patriots to score their fair share of points as a manageable over/under goes over the total.
The pick: Lean to the over.
[h=2]Prop bet[/h]
Prop: 4.5 sacks by both teams (over -120, under even)
John Parolin: There may not be a worse matchup for a quarterback making his first career start than facing the Cardinals. No one blitzed more last year (45 percent of dropbacks), and they don't care what down it is -- they brought at least five rushers on 46 percent of first-down dropbacks, the only team above 38 percent. The talent is undeniable -- corner Patrick Peterson has gone to five straight Pro Bowls, and Deone Bucannon and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu both cause matchup problems with their versatility. Arizona added former Patriot Chandler Jones to bolster the pass rush in the offseason. Even in preseason action, Garoppolo showed a tendency to hold on to the ball. He simply can't afford that against the Cardinals.
Carson Palmer was sacked 25 times last season, second fewest by a quarterback who played in 16 games. The Patriots' defense also won't have Jones (trade) andRob Ninkovich (suspension) in this game, the only two Patriots with at least 10 sacks over the past two years. But Jabaal Sheard had a sack every 66.5 snaps, right near Jones' 65.3 average. More playing time for Sheard will be in store, and the rate should hold up. A total of five combined sacks is very much in play.
The pick: Over.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The first Sunday night game of the NFL season features two of last year's top teams, as the Cardinals host the Patriots. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game and give their picks against the spread, on the total and on a prop bet.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 51; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Arizona
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[h=2]Against the spread[/h]Public perception: The Cardinals have increased in popularity with the public in recent years, but they're nowhere near the public team that the Patriots are. However, with Tom Brady suspended and now with Rob Gronkowski out with a hamstring injury, bettors are having no problem jumping on Arizona.
Wiseguys' view: This game actually opened pick 'em when the schedule was first released and early speculators (guessing right that Brady's Deflategate suspension could be reinstated) grabbed Arizona and made it a small favorite for the Cardinals. The line was adjusted to around 4.5 after the suspension happened and the money continued to flow in on the Cardinals. However, there are plenty of sharps waiting to take the Patriots with as many points as possible.
Dave Tuley's take: I certainly respect the Cardinals for their balance -- a high-powered offense and outstanding ball-hawking defense -- but it's my opinion that this line is inflated. I'm not denying that Brady and Gronk are worth several points to the spread, however, this is basically the second straight training camp where Bill Belichick has been able to groom Jimmy Garoppolo to take over, so he's going to be prepared. They've also had all offseason to prepare for Arizona's schemes, so while I'm not arguing this should be pick 'em like the opening line, getting the Patriots at anything more than a field goal would be value (and I'm licking my chops as it has moved to a full touchdown).
Note on the total: I also believe that's overadjusted from 51 all the way down to 44.5. Even without Brady, these are two of the best offenses in the league, plus the defenses are capable of scores as well.
The pick: Patriots +7* (lean to the over 44.5).
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Erin Rynning: With the emergence of running back David Johnson and gradual build of their offensive line, the Cardinals now possess a potent two-way offense. Obviously this was on display last season, as the Cardinals featured the No. 1 offense in the NFL in yardage per game.
Last season, the Patriots rarely matched up against a versatile offense like the Cardinals, and especially not a top-notch passing game. Everyone will be watching to see how Garoppolo fares under center. The Patriots did have the entire preseason to prepare their young signal-caller for this Week 1 spotlight contest, which we can count as a positive. The loss of Gronkowski will keep this a lean, but look for the Patriots to score their fair share of points as a manageable over/under goes over the total.
The pick: Lean to the over.
[h=2]Prop bet[/h]
Prop: 4.5 sacks by both teams (over -120, under even)
John Parolin: There may not be a worse matchup for a quarterback making his first career start than facing the Cardinals. No one blitzed more last year (45 percent of dropbacks), and they don't care what down it is -- they brought at least five rushers on 46 percent of first-down dropbacks, the only team above 38 percent. The talent is undeniable -- corner Patrick Peterson has gone to five straight Pro Bowls, and Deone Bucannon and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu both cause matchup problems with their versatility. Arizona added former Patriot Chandler Jones to bolster the pass rush in the offseason. Even in preseason action, Garoppolo showed a tendency to hold on to the ball. He simply can't afford that against the Cardinals.
Carson Palmer was sacked 25 times last season, second fewest by a quarterback who played in 16 games. The Patriots' defense also won't have Jones (trade) andRob Ninkovich (suspension) in this game, the only two Patriots with at least 10 sacks over the past two years. But Jabaal Sheard had a sack every 66.5 snaps, right near Jones' 65.3 average. More playing time for Sheard will be in store, and the rate should hold up. A total of five combined sacks is very much in play.
The pick: Over.
