[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's matchup between the Mets and Giants[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball continues its predominantly National League summer tour tonight with its third visit this season to AT&T Park for a matchup of the past two NL pennant winners.
There isn't much of a chance that Sunday night's matchup between the Mets and Giants will be an October preview, however, as the Mets find themselves on the wrong side of .500 with a little less than a quarter of the season left to be played. On the surface, there's nothing fluky about their under-.500 record; the Mets have been outscored by their opponents by 12 runs this year.
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Fluky however, would appear to apply to the Giants' performance since the All-Star break. Their 11-21 record over that time is the worst in baseball, and while some team has to have the worst record in baseball over a given time period, it qualifies as fluky when it belongs to the team that had the best record in baseball -- by three games -- at the All-Star break. Think about what that means: The Giants were better than the Cubs in the first half of the season and have been worse than the Angels in the second half.
Perhaps the return to Sunday Night Baseball will suit the Giants well. In their two earlier roles as hosts on Sunday nights this year, they shut down both the Cubs and the Dodgers, allowing a total of one run in the two victories.
Of course, Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has shined in the spotlight as well. Thor had a strong 2015 postseason, but his national coming-out party occurred on Aug. 2, 2015, on Sunday Night Baseball, when he shut down the Nationals at a rocking Citi Field to pull the Mets into a first-place tie in the NL East. From that point on, the Mets played .600 baseball making their October heroics possible. If New York is to make a similar run this year, it very well may need to start tonight with their ace on the mound.
The Chalk handicapping team is looking to maintain its top form as well. Joe Peta (9-5, +5.73 units on the season) has a call on the game, as does Andrew Lange, fresh off a +165 score on the Cardinals last week and looking to hit a third straight selection. Dave Tuley (6-4, +1.45 units) takes a look at the over/under, as well.
Editor's Note: Lines are subject to change based on time and location, and these picks were made based on prices at the time of filing. Be aware of differences in available odds and consider the included analysis relative to the stated lines within the article when placing bets.
Westgate line: Mets (Noah Syndergaard) -110 at Giants (Jeff Samardzija) +100
Over/under: 7.5 (over -105, under -115)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: The Giants' poor play in the second half has been dissected by many analysts, and they generally reach the same empirically airtight conclusion: The team's offensive production has plummeted since the All-Star break. That's unmistakably correct. The Giants scored 4.7 runs a game in the first half of the season and 3.8 a game since then. While that is an alarming drop in run production, as a Bay Area resident and a betting analyst who sees a lot of Giants games, I don't find that drop sustainable, and therefore not particularly concerning as an indicator for the rest of the season. However, there is a less-discussed factor that should concern Giants fans, and it's on the other side of the ledger.
The back end of the rotation and the seemingly vulnerable bullpen get lots of attention from concerned fans, but looking at the pitchers, I think it's only part of the story. It's why I track very closely a team's defensive efficiency, adjusted for double plays and baserunner kills, because it's a huge factor in allowing a pitcher such as say, Jake Peavy in 2015, to get better run suppression results than his underlying skill set would suggest.
As noted previously in this space, San Francisco's normally stellar defense has been inconsistent this year, and the trade of Matt Duffy seems to have exacerbated the problem. I've found, similar to NFL offensive lines, that continuity is an important factor in predicting team defense, and with Eduardo Nunez now manning third base it seems like the defense may not be the asset to the pitching staff that it has been the past couple of seasons. This is especially worrisome for a pitcher like Samardzija and his rapidly declining strikeout rate.
Of course, any discussion of defenses sabotaging starting pitching efforts has to include the New York Mets -- and preferably as a cautionary tale. They're not hovering around league-worst levels as they did for the first half of the season, but the Mets still rank 23rd in the majors in turning batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners.
Still, the Mets have the vastly superior starter tonight, and believe it or not, an offense that's better than you think, especially with the return off the DL ofYoenis Cespedes, who blasted two home runs in yesterday's win. Yes, the Mets rank 29th in runs scored, but they don't rank nearly as low in most categories (for instance, they are 16th in isolated slugging). At best, this is a league-average offense when healthy, which means it's not at the Giants' level, but to get value tonight, it's enough. All it takes is a little bit of hidden value on offense, or the identification of a weaker-than-realized Giants defense to make the Mets a compelling pick at near pick-em odds with such a huge starting pitching advantage.
ESPN Chalk pick: Mets -110.
Andrew Lange: Once one of the premium hard-throwing right-handed starters in MLB, Samardzija has quickly descended to an average middle-of-the-rotation arm. The velocity is still there, but mistake pitches, home runs and the inability to consistently miss bats have seen his ERA jump from 2.84 to 4.24 over the past three months. Consider this: Over Samardzija's first 11 starts of this season, he recorded 10 or more swinging strikes seven times. Over his last 13 starts, he has hit that mark only three times. Things have gotten desperate enough that Samardzija recently reintroduced his curveball, something he hasn't thrown since 2012. The addition though hasn't yielded much in the way of results, with a 5.04 ERA since breaking it out on July 24.
If I'm the Mets, I'm looking for any excuse to shut down Syndergaard for the season. Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey are premium arms currently on the DL, and Steven Matz also missed his most recent scheduled start because of shoulder soreness. There's still a chance for a wild-card run, but the odds are against the Mets, and preserving one of the few healthy assets they possess should be of paramount importance. And while Syndergaard appears healthy, he has decayed a bit of late with a 3.69 ERA and .824 OPS allowed over his last seven outings.
A home matchup against a soft-hitting Mets lineup isn't a bad situation for Samardzija to uncork a quality start. However, stuff-wise, this is a total mismatch. To get Syndergaard at a near pick-em price against such an average opposing starter is intriguing. Lean toward New York in this one.
ESPN Chalk pick: Lean toward Mets -110.
Dave Tuley: I understand why the oddsmakers set this over/under at 7.5, as a first glance of the pitching matchup between Syndergaard and Samardzija makes one think it's going to be a pitcher's duel. However, the way these teams have been playing lately makes the over look like a bargain.
The first three games of this series have gone over (as well as all six meetings this season) and the Mets are on a six-game over streak while the Giants are 7-0-1 with the over in their past eight games. In addition (and actually more important in my handicapping), the Giants have figured out Syndergaard the past two times they've faced him with four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-1 victory over the Mets on May 1 and also four earned runs in six innings in their sole meeting last year (an ERA of 6.17).
Meanwhile, Samardzija hasn't been fooling very many batters lately; my colleague Lange mentions his struggles the past three months and I count only four quality starts in his past 15 outings. The home-plate umpire also instills confidence: Clint Fagan has been an "over" ump lately, as the over is 12-8 in games he's called this year (with an average of 12.2 runs per game).
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 7.5 (-105).
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball continues its predominantly National League summer tour tonight with its third visit this season to AT&T Park for a matchup of the past two NL pennant winners.
There isn't much of a chance that Sunday night's matchup between the Mets and Giants will be an October preview, however, as the Mets find themselves on the wrong side of .500 with a little less than a quarter of the season left to be played. On the surface, there's nothing fluky about their under-.500 record; the Mets have been outscored by their opponents by 12 runs this year.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Fluky however, would appear to apply to the Giants' performance since the All-Star break. Their 11-21 record over that time is the worst in baseball, and while some team has to have the worst record in baseball over a given time period, it qualifies as fluky when it belongs to the team that had the best record in baseball -- by three games -- at the All-Star break. Think about what that means: The Giants were better than the Cubs in the first half of the season and have been worse than the Angels in the second half.
Perhaps the return to Sunday Night Baseball will suit the Giants well. In their two earlier roles as hosts on Sunday nights this year, they shut down both the Cubs and the Dodgers, allowing a total of one run in the two victories.
Of course, Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has shined in the spotlight as well. Thor had a strong 2015 postseason, but his national coming-out party occurred on Aug. 2, 2015, on Sunday Night Baseball, when he shut down the Nationals at a rocking Citi Field to pull the Mets into a first-place tie in the NL East. From that point on, the Mets played .600 baseball making their October heroics possible. If New York is to make a similar run this year, it very well may need to start tonight with their ace on the mound.
The Chalk handicapping team is looking to maintain its top form as well. Joe Peta (9-5, +5.73 units on the season) has a call on the game, as does Andrew Lange, fresh off a +165 score on the Cardinals last week and looking to hit a third straight selection. Dave Tuley (6-4, +1.45 units) takes a look at the over/under, as well.
Editor's Note: Lines are subject to change based on time and location, and these picks were made based on prices at the time of filing. Be aware of differences in available odds and consider the included analysis relative to the stated lines within the article when placing bets.
Over/under: 7.5 (over -105, under -115)
PickCenter Intel
Joe Peta: The Giants' poor play in the second half has been dissected by many analysts, and they generally reach the same empirically airtight conclusion: The team's offensive production has plummeted since the All-Star break. That's unmistakably correct. The Giants scored 4.7 runs a game in the first half of the season and 3.8 a game since then. While that is an alarming drop in run production, as a Bay Area resident and a betting analyst who sees a lot of Giants games, I don't find that drop sustainable, and therefore not particularly concerning as an indicator for the rest of the season. However, there is a less-discussed factor that should concern Giants fans, and it's on the other side of the ledger.
The back end of the rotation and the seemingly vulnerable bullpen get lots of attention from concerned fans, but looking at the pitchers, I think it's only part of the story. It's why I track very closely a team's defensive efficiency, adjusted for double plays and baserunner kills, because it's a huge factor in allowing a pitcher such as say, Jake Peavy in 2015, to get better run suppression results than his underlying skill set would suggest.
As noted previously in this space, San Francisco's normally stellar defense has been inconsistent this year, and the trade of Matt Duffy seems to have exacerbated the problem. I've found, similar to NFL offensive lines, that continuity is an important factor in predicting team defense, and with Eduardo Nunez now manning third base it seems like the defense may not be the asset to the pitching staff that it has been the past couple of seasons. This is especially worrisome for a pitcher like Samardzija and his rapidly declining strikeout rate.
Of course, any discussion of defenses sabotaging starting pitching efforts has to include the New York Mets -- and preferably as a cautionary tale. They're not hovering around league-worst levels as they did for the first half of the season, but the Mets still rank 23rd in the majors in turning batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners.
Still, the Mets have the vastly superior starter tonight, and believe it or not, an offense that's better than you think, especially with the return off the DL ofYoenis Cespedes, who blasted two home runs in yesterday's win. Yes, the Mets rank 29th in runs scored, but they don't rank nearly as low in most categories (for instance, they are 16th in isolated slugging). At best, this is a league-average offense when healthy, which means it's not at the Giants' level, but to get value tonight, it's enough. All it takes is a little bit of hidden value on offense, or the identification of a weaker-than-realized Giants defense to make the Mets a compelling pick at near pick-em odds with such a huge starting pitching advantage.
ESPN Chalk pick: Mets -110.
Andrew Lange: Once one of the premium hard-throwing right-handed starters in MLB, Samardzija has quickly descended to an average middle-of-the-rotation arm. The velocity is still there, but mistake pitches, home runs and the inability to consistently miss bats have seen his ERA jump from 2.84 to 4.24 over the past three months. Consider this: Over Samardzija's first 11 starts of this season, he recorded 10 or more swinging strikes seven times. Over his last 13 starts, he has hit that mark only three times. Things have gotten desperate enough that Samardzija recently reintroduced his curveball, something he hasn't thrown since 2012. The addition though hasn't yielded much in the way of results, with a 5.04 ERA since breaking it out on July 24.
If I'm the Mets, I'm looking for any excuse to shut down Syndergaard for the season. Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey are premium arms currently on the DL, and Steven Matz also missed his most recent scheduled start because of shoulder soreness. There's still a chance for a wild-card run, but the odds are against the Mets, and preserving one of the few healthy assets they possess should be of paramount importance. And while Syndergaard appears healthy, he has decayed a bit of late with a 3.69 ERA and .824 OPS allowed over his last seven outings.
A home matchup against a soft-hitting Mets lineup isn't a bad situation for Samardzija to uncork a quality start. However, stuff-wise, this is a total mismatch. To get Syndergaard at a near pick-em price against such an average opposing starter is intriguing. Lean toward New York in this one.
ESPN Chalk pick: Lean toward Mets -110.
Dave Tuley: I understand why the oddsmakers set this over/under at 7.5, as a first glance of the pitching matchup between Syndergaard and Samardzija makes one think it's going to be a pitcher's duel. However, the way these teams have been playing lately makes the over look like a bargain.
The first three games of this series have gone over (as well as all six meetings this season) and the Mets are on a six-game over streak while the Giants are 7-0-1 with the over in their past eight games. In addition (and actually more important in my handicapping), the Giants have figured out Syndergaard the past two times they've faced him with four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-1 victory over the Mets on May 1 and also four earned runs in six innings in their sole meeting last year (an ERA of 6.17).
Meanwhile, Samardzija hasn't been fooling very many batters lately; my colleague Lange mentions his struggles the past three months and I count only four quality starts in his past 15 outings. The home-plate umpire also instills confidence: Clint Fagan has been an "over" ump lately, as the over is 12-8 in games he's called this year (with an average of 12.2 runs per game).
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 7.5 (-105).
