[h=1]How to bet Denver-Detroit[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 3 has arrived and includes an intriguing Sunday night matchup between Denver and Detroit. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday afternoon.
[h=2]Matchup: Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -2.3; now Denver -3
Total: Opened 45.5; now 44.5
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]ATS pick[/h]Erin Rynning says: The Broncos enter this Sunday night matchup with an ugly 2-0 record. It's been a role reversal for the Broncos, as Peyton Manning and his offense remain stuck in neutral compared to past seasons. However, this was somewhat expected with the Broncos introducing Gary Kubiak's offensive system while replacing 80 percent of its offensive line. No question a tug of war exists within this offense, but thankfully the defense has looked awesome. I expected defensive coordinator Wade Philips to make a difference with this stop-unit and with a simplified attacking scheme that leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 255.5. The Broncos are a team that will continue to improve as the season moves forward.
Meanwhile, the feel-good 11-5 season the Lions produced last season is quickly falling by the wayside, as they've started out 0-2. They've earned their 0-2 mark with a sloppy brand of football and a diminishing defense. Last season, built around a strong front seven and Ndamukong Suh, the Lions allowed just 300.9 yards per game. While it's early this season, the Lions rank 31st in the league in that category, allowing 416.5 yard per game. My numbers are neutral on both the side and total as I'll just use a small lean to the Broncos on Sunday night.
ATS pick: Broncos -3
[h=2]Over/under pick[/h]Dave Tuley says: I would love to make a case for the home underdog, but the Lions have already let me down twice this season, so I'm a little gun-shy. I feel better with the under as both offenses haven't excelled yet (Detroit ranks 25th in total yards while Denver ranks dead last) and the defenses have the ability to shut down the opposing offense (Denver's defense is rated No. 1).
Pick: Under 44.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]1.5 pass touchdowns by Matthew Stafford (Over -125/Under +105)
John Parolin says: Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in 36 of 66 games since the start of 2011 (his 41-touchdown season), including both games this season. Given the lines involved, this doesn't present particular value in either direction on the surface. But there are a few problems with that: It assumes all defenses are equal and that Stafford is healthy enough to finish the game and perform at a high level.
From 2011-15, the Lions' schedule included two last-place schedules and a third-place schedule for nine games against teams that finished in the bottom half of their division the previous year. Those games, plus six a year against defenses of varying quality in the NFC North, gave Stafford opportunity to score. Nothing varies about the quality of Denver's defense: The Broncos are relentless. They lead the league in defensive efficiency, QBR allowed, pressuring quarterbacks, yards allowed and a host of other statistical categories. This is a flat-out bad matchup for a quarterback who finished last week's game with rib, elbow and thumb injuries. Stafford is a tough player, but this is a tougher matchup.
Pick: Under
249.5 pass yards by Peyton Manning (O/U -110)
Parolin says: Do you believe Gary Kubiak? It's a fair question, whether or not a coach will tell the media on a Friday his general approach for a game on Sunday. Kubiak reinforced to the media on Friday how important the run game was to his offense, which won't do Peyton Manning any favors. Manning has not passed well when lining up under center this year, averaging 1.4 yards per drop-back with three sacks. That's how Kubiak wants to play; consider that during Kubiak's tenure in Houston (2006-13), his Texans attempted 119 fewer shotgun passes than any other team in the league. Both of Manning's teams ranked in the top five in that span, during which time he played for both the Colts and Broncos.
So Peyton struggles under center, but that's what Kubiak wants to do. The Lions' defense offers another interesting angle: Through two games, opponents have actually rushed more often against Detroit (51 percent of offensive plays) than any other team. Clearly the Chargers and Vikings saw fit to attack the Lions on the ground, which should only reinforce Kubiak's insistence on establishing the run. If Manning stays under center, the under is the play.
Pick: Under
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 3 has arrived and includes an intriguing Sunday night matchup between Denver and Detroit. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis on the game. Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Saturday afternoon.
[h=2]Matchup: Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -2.3; now Denver -3
Total: Opened 45.5; now 44.5
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]ATS pick[/h]Erin Rynning says: The Broncos enter this Sunday night matchup with an ugly 2-0 record. It's been a role reversal for the Broncos, as Peyton Manning and his offense remain stuck in neutral compared to past seasons. However, this was somewhat expected with the Broncos introducing Gary Kubiak's offensive system while replacing 80 percent of its offensive line. No question a tug of war exists within this offense, but thankfully the defense has looked awesome. I expected defensive coordinator Wade Philips to make a difference with this stop-unit and with a simplified attacking scheme that leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 255.5. The Broncos are a team that will continue to improve as the season moves forward.
Meanwhile, the feel-good 11-5 season the Lions produced last season is quickly falling by the wayside, as they've started out 0-2. They've earned their 0-2 mark with a sloppy brand of football and a diminishing defense. Last season, built around a strong front seven and Ndamukong Suh, the Lions allowed just 300.9 yards per game. While it's early this season, the Lions rank 31st in the league in that category, allowing 416.5 yard per game. My numbers are neutral on both the side and total as I'll just use a small lean to the Broncos on Sunday night.
ATS pick: Broncos -3
[h=2]Over/under pick[/h]Dave Tuley says: I would love to make a case for the home underdog, but the Lions have already let me down twice this season, so I'm a little gun-shy. I feel better with the under as both offenses haven't excelled yet (Detroit ranks 25th in total yards while Denver ranks dead last) and the defenses have the ability to shut down the opposing offense (Denver's defense is rated No. 1).
Pick: Under 44.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]1.5 pass touchdowns by Matthew Stafford (Over -125/Under +105)
John Parolin says: Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in 36 of 66 games since the start of 2011 (his 41-touchdown season), including both games this season. Given the lines involved, this doesn't present particular value in either direction on the surface. But there are a few problems with that: It assumes all defenses are equal and that Stafford is healthy enough to finish the game and perform at a high level.
From 2011-15, the Lions' schedule included two last-place schedules and a third-place schedule for nine games against teams that finished in the bottom half of their division the previous year. Those games, plus six a year against defenses of varying quality in the NFC North, gave Stafford opportunity to score. Nothing varies about the quality of Denver's defense: The Broncos are relentless. They lead the league in defensive efficiency, QBR allowed, pressuring quarterbacks, yards allowed and a host of other statistical categories. This is a flat-out bad matchup for a quarterback who finished last week's game with rib, elbow and thumb injuries. Stafford is a tough player, but this is a tougher matchup.
Pick: Under
249.5 pass yards by Peyton Manning (O/U -110)
Parolin says: Do you believe Gary Kubiak? It's a fair question, whether or not a coach will tell the media on a Friday his general approach for a game on Sunday. Kubiak reinforced to the media on Friday how important the run game was to his offense, which won't do Peyton Manning any favors. Manning has not passed well when lining up under center this year, averaging 1.4 yards per drop-back with three sacks. That's how Kubiak wants to play; consider that during Kubiak's tenure in Houston (2006-13), his Texans attempted 119 fewer shotgun passes than any other team in the league. Both of Manning's teams ranked in the top five in that span, during which time he played for both the Colts and Broncos.
So Peyton struggles under center, but that's what Kubiak wants to do. The Lions' defense offers another interesting angle: Through two games, opponents have actually rushed more often against Detroit (51 percent of offensive plays) than any other team. Clearly the Chargers and Vikings saw fit to attack the Lions on the ground, which should only reinforce Kubiak's insistence on establishing the run. If Manning stays under center, the under is the play.
Pick: Under
