How to bet Green Bay-Atlanta
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/17/17
SPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 56
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent on Green Bay
Phil Steele
This is the third meeting between the Packers and Falcons in the past calendar year, with Atlanta getting the best of Green Bay in both of the first two, including a dominant 44-21 victory in the NFC Championship Game. Although both teams enter play 1-0, the Packers' home win against Seattle was without question the more impressive victory of the two, as they held the Seahawks without a touchdown at Lambeau Field. The Falcons, meanwhile, had to hold on late in Chicago, as the Bears were throwing into the end zone at the end trailing by 6. While this does mark Atlanta's first regular-season game in their new stadium, their 4-13 ATS mark as a home favorite over the past three years has me leaning with the Packers.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
The Packers were extremely impressive on both sides of the football last week. Although they scored just 17 points, quarterback Aaron Rodgers still eclipsed 300 yards, and their quality of opposition was as strong as it gets on defense. Last year their secondary was reeling as they traveled to Atlanta and allowed 44 points in their playoff loss. This defensive backfield, however, is firmly motivated and pointing toward this contest to make amends.
Lean: Packers
Warren Sharp
In their first meeting last year, the Packers were without running back Ty Montgomery, tight end Jared Cook and receiver Randall Cobb. Without any balance, Rodgers had to do it all himself, leading the team in rushing attempts (six) and rushing yards (60). In the second meeting, Jordy Nelson was dealing with a rib injury, and wide receivers Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison were also both injured. Cook led the Packers in receiving targets and receptions.
Montgomery should have a huge game against this defense, which is suspect in defending passing plays targeting running backs, but I don't believe the Packers defense is nearly as strong as they appeared against the struggling Seahawks offensive line in Week 1. This matchup could hinge on the health of the Packers' offensive line.
Lean: Over
Prop bets
305.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
Home, sweet home. Sure, it was a different building, but the dome treated QB Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense very well a year ago. Ryan averaged 322.6 passing yards per game at home last year, the second most in the league. Plus Atlanta will open their pass-friendly stadium in a very pass-friendly situation. First, there aren't many quarterbacks who can put up points and make you move to throw-heavy sooner than Rodgers can. As for Ryan's more direct opposition, the Packers' defense isn't denting his chances of putting up passing yardage. Green Bay surrendered 269 yards per game last year, more than any other team except the New Orleans Saints. Some of that is a direct reflection of trying to keep up with a prolific Green Bay offense, but some of it reflects a pass defense that was just plain bad. The Packers allowed an NFL-worst 8.06 yards per attempt last year. They're not likely to hurt Ryan's stellar 9.34 yards per attempt average since the start of last year. Using that as a benchmark (that might even be conservative), Ryan needs 33 pass attempts to hit 306. He's done that in 12 of his past 17 games, and very few of those games involved keeping up with Rodgers.
Play: Over
95.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
It's not a traditional daily fantasy "stack," but it might as well be. Ten opponents in Green Bay's past 20 games recorded at least 96 yards, including Jones himself in last year's NFC Championship Game. In fact, Jones almost doubled the prop with a nine-catch, 180-yard game in which he found the end zone twice. His result wasn't atypical of how wideouts performed against the Pack. Green Bay has allowed opposing receivers 9.1 yards per target when lined up as the perimeter wide receiver since the start of last year. That's the fourth highest in the league. And if Jones catches the ball? That's a cool 15.0 yards per reception allowed in the same span, third most of any defense. The deep ball can make up a massive chunk of this prop in short order, and there isn't a secondary in the league that's allowed more completions 20-plus yards downfield than the Packers since the start of last year (35). Julio should have every chance to record yards, making the fans packing Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the first time very happy.
Play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/17/17
SPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Erin Rynning) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday night's tilt between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 56
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent on Green Bay
Phil Steele
This is the third meeting between the Packers and Falcons in the past calendar year, with Atlanta getting the best of Green Bay in both of the first two, including a dominant 44-21 victory in the NFC Championship Game. Although both teams enter play 1-0, the Packers' home win against Seattle was without question the more impressive victory of the two, as they held the Seahawks without a touchdown at Lambeau Field. The Falcons, meanwhile, had to hold on late in Chicago, as the Bears were throwing into the end zone at the end trailing by 6. While this does mark Atlanta's first regular-season game in their new stadium, their 4-13 ATS mark as a home favorite over the past three years has me leaning with the Packers.
ATS pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
The Packers were extremely impressive on both sides of the football last week. Although they scored just 17 points, quarterback Aaron Rodgers still eclipsed 300 yards, and their quality of opposition was as strong as it gets on defense. Last year their secondary was reeling as they traveled to Atlanta and allowed 44 points in their playoff loss. This defensive backfield, however, is firmly motivated and pointing toward this contest to make amends.
Lean: Packers
Warren Sharp
In their first meeting last year, the Packers were without running back Ty Montgomery, tight end Jared Cook and receiver Randall Cobb. Without any balance, Rodgers had to do it all himself, leading the team in rushing attempts (six) and rushing yards (60). In the second meeting, Jordy Nelson was dealing with a rib injury, and wide receivers Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison were also both injured. Cook led the Packers in receiving targets and receptions.
Montgomery should have a huge game against this defense, which is suspect in defending passing plays targeting running backs, but I don't believe the Packers defense is nearly as strong as they appeared against the struggling Seahawks offensive line in Week 1. This matchup could hinge on the health of the Packers' offensive line.
Lean: Over
Prop bets
305.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
Home, sweet home. Sure, it was a different building, but the dome treated QB Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense very well a year ago. Ryan averaged 322.6 passing yards per game at home last year, the second most in the league. Plus Atlanta will open their pass-friendly stadium in a very pass-friendly situation. First, there aren't many quarterbacks who can put up points and make you move to throw-heavy sooner than Rodgers can. As for Ryan's more direct opposition, the Packers' defense isn't denting his chances of putting up passing yardage. Green Bay surrendered 269 yards per game last year, more than any other team except the New Orleans Saints. Some of that is a direct reflection of trying to keep up with a prolific Green Bay offense, but some of it reflects a pass defense that was just plain bad. The Packers allowed an NFL-worst 8.06 yards per attempt last year. They're not likely to hurt Ryan's stellar 9.34 yards per attempt average since the start of last year. Using that as a benchmark (that might even be conservative), Ryan needs 33 pass attempts to hit 306. He's done that in 12 of his past 17 games, and very few of those games involved keeping up with Rodgers.
Play: Over
95.5 receiving yards by Julio Jones (O/U -110)
It's not a traditional daily fantasy "stack," but it might as well be. Ten opponents in Green Bay's past 20 games recorded at least 96 yards, including Jones himself in last year's NFC Championship Game. In fact, Jones almost doubled the prop with a nine-catch, 180-yard game in which he found the end zone twice. His result wasn't atypical of how wideouts performed against the Pack. Green Bay has allowed opposing receivers 9.1 yards per target when lined up as the perimeter wide receiver since the start of last year. That's the fourth highest in the league. And if Jones catches the ball? That's a cool 15.0 yards per reception allowed in the same span, third most of any defense. The deep ball can make up a massive chunk of this prop in short order, and there isn't a secondary in the league that's allowed more completions 20-plus yards downfield than the Packers since the start of last year (35). Julio should have every chance to record yards, making the fans packing Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the first time very happy.
Play: Over
