[h=1]How to bet New York-Miami[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: New York Giants atMiami Dolphins[/h]Spread: Opened Miami -1; now New York -2
Total: Opened 47; remains 47
[h=2]Over/under picks[/h]Dave Tuley says...
Public perception: The way the Giants keep blowing fourth-quarter leads, it's surprising that so much of the public is still backing them. Of course, the Dolphins have failed to cover their past three games, so they're no bargain either.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game. They haven't really weighed in one way or the other.
Tuley's take: I think the Giants are the right side, though it's hard to trust them, especially with that No. 31-ranked defense. Miami's defense is 27th, so that combination has me looking at the over. Eli Manning should have success with Odell Beckham Jr. & Co., and the Dolphins' offense has improved of late, with Lamar Miller running for more than 100 yards last week and wide receiverDeVante Parker catching a TD pass for the second straight week.
The pick: Over (pool play: Giants)
Wunderdog: There is a very strong chance that both teams make it into at least the 20s in this game. The Giants have scored 20 or more in 10 of their 12 games, but they have also allowed their opponents to do the same. The Dolphins are allowing 25 points per game on the season, and three of their last six opponents have scored 33 or more.
The Giants are certainly capable of achieving those numbers here as well. I'm surprised to see this one in the mid-40s as I thought it would push 50. The Giants are allowing 424 yards a game at 6.2 yards per play, the worst in the league right now. The Miami defense is allowing 390 yards per game, so there will be plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest.
The pick: Over
[h=2]ATS pick[/h]Erin Rynning: The NFC East door continues to swing wide open, but the Giants keep failing to take advantage. They've now dropped three straight games, again with a playoff spot up for grabs. Further, this simply isn't a good or even average football team. The Giants have been outgained in six of their last seven games while playing a below-average schedule.
Obviously, the Dolphins have their own set of issues. However, with the playoffs just a dream at this point, they'll treat this national game as their playoff appearance. Their interim young coaching staff will have this team keyed up for a physical performance and they'll control the run game on both sides of the ball in this matchup. I'll take the home Dolphins on Monday night.
The pick: Miami
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]101.5 receiving yards by Odell Beckham Jr. (O/U -110)
John Parolin: Odell Beckham Jr. has to be salivating at the prospect of facingBrent Grimes. Brandon Marshall was lined up opposite Grimes for the majority of the Jets' Week 12 game against the Dolphins, and Marshall finished with 12 receptions for 131 yards. Last week, the Dolphins played the Ravens (featuringMatt Schaub and Kamar Aiken), which is hardly a fair comparison to Beckham's abilities.
Beckham is averaging 11 targets, 6.5 receptions and 96 yards per game. His 8.7 yards per target average is sixth best among players with at least 100 targets this season. If he performs at the same level as his season average so far, Beckham would need 12 targets to hit 102 yards, just one more than his average. But that's assuming Beckham's season average doesn't change -- and that Grimes can bounce back. Marshall averaged 11.9 yards per target, which means he would need only nine targets to pass 100 yards in the game. The expectation for Beckham is probably somewhere between those two numbers, which when applied to his 11 targets per game average still leaves you comfortably over.
The pick: Over
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley, Erin Rynning and Wunderdog -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 47; remains 47
[h=2]Over/under picks[/h]Dave Tuley says...
Public perception: The way the Giants keep blowing fourth-quarter leads, it's surprising that so much of the public is still backing them. Of course, the Dolphins have failed to cover their past three games, so they're no bargain either.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game. They haven't really weighed in one way or the other.
Tuley's take: I think the Giants are the right side, though it's hard to trust them, especially with that No. 31-ranked defense. Miami's defense is 27th, so that combination has me looking at the over. Eli Manning should have success with Odell Beckham Jr. & Co., and the Dolphins' offense has improved of late, with Lamar Miller running for more than 100 yards last week and wide receiverDeVante Parker catching a TD pass for the second straight week.
The pick: Over (pool play: Giants)
Wunderdog: There is a very strong chance that both teams make it into at least the 20s in this game. The Giants have scored 20 or more in 10 of their 12 games, but they have also allowed their opponents to do the same. The Dolphins are allowing 25 points per game on the season, and three of their last six opponents have scored 33 or more.
The Giants are certainly capable of achieving those numbers here as well. I'm surprised to see this one in the mid-40s as I thought it would push 50. The Giants are allowing 424 yards a game at 6.2 yards per play, the worst in the league right now. The Miami defense is allowing 390 yards per game, so there will be plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest.
The pick: Over
[h=2]ATS pick[/h]Erin Rynning: The NFC East door continues to swing wide open, but the Giants keep failing to take advantage. They've now dropped three straight games, again with a playoff spot up for grabs. Further, this simply isn't a good or even average football team. The Giants have been outgained in six of their last seven games while playing a below-average schedule.
Obviously, the Dolphins have their own set of issues. However, with the playoffs just a dream at this point, they'll treat this national game as their playoff appearance. Their interim young coaching staff will have this team keyed up for a physical performance and they'll control the run game on both sides of the ball in this matchup. I'll take the home Dolphins on Monday night.
The pick: Miami
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]101.5 receiving yards by Odell Beckham Jr. (O/U -110)
John Parolin: Odell Beckham Jr. has to be salivating at the prospect of facingBrent Grimes. Brandon Marshall was lined up opposite Grimes for the majority of the Jets' Week 12 game against the Dolphins, and Marshall finished with 12 receptions for 131 yards. Last week, the Dolphins played the Ravens (featuringMatt Schaub and Kamar Aiken), which is hardly a fair comparison to Beckham's abilities.
Beckham is averaging 11 targets, 6.5 receptions and 96 yards per game. His 8.7 yards per target average is sixth best among players with at least 100 targets this season. If he performs at the same level as his season average so far, Beckham would need 12 targets to hit 102 yards, just one more than his average. But that's assuming Beckham's season average doesn't change -- and that Grimes can bounce back. Marshall averaged 11.9 yards per target, which means he would need only nine targets to pass 100 yards in the game. The expectation for Beckham is probably somewhere between those two numbers, which when applied to his 11 targets per game average still leaves you comfortably over.
The pick: Over
