[h=1]How to bet Chicago-San Diego[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers[/h]Spread: Opened San Diego -3.5; now San Diego -4.5
Total: Opened 52; now 49.5
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: Both teams have let down backers (Chargers are 3-5 ATS despite covering in last week's loss at Baltimore; Bears are 3-4 ATS), and the public is mostly landing on the Chargers as the home favorites.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: Sharps haven't weighed in heavily on this game yet, as it's been Chargers -4 most of the week. If it goes to -4.5, there will probably be an influx of wiseguys taking the points.
Tuley's take: Both teams seem to take every game down to the wire, so there might be a little value in taking the Bears, but I'm going to stick with the theory I've talked about the past few weeks with taking the over in games with teams that are pretty much out of it. The offenses tend to play a loose, playground style of football, winging the ball all over, and defenses don't offer much resistance. It worked last week with this same San Diego team at Baltimore (went over 50.5), and I expect the same thing here.
Philip Rivers and his No. 1 offense (in terms of yardage) will get his yards and points, and the Bears should do the same with Alshon Jeffery again being Jay Cutler's favorite target (note: we know Matt Forte is out, but Jeremy Langford -- while not Forte -- won't be too much of a drop off, especially with the Bears mostly passing the ball).
The pick: Over 49
Erin Rynning says: The Bears started the campaign in dismal fashion, dropping to league-low levels from a power rating perspective. However, this was a banged-up football team, notably on offense. Looking back, losing to the Packers, Cardinals and Seahawks really isn't such a horrific deal. Since regaining their footing and players, they've played competitive football with a 2-2 record. Working with a new coaching staff, this Bears team still can improve as the season moves forward. Meanwhile, of the two wins the Chargers have recorded, not one tally's a margin by more than five. Plus, their two wins were against the Lions and Browns, which continues to look lesser by the week. This is a team with an offensive line in shambles, and they lost their best offensive weapon inKeenan Allen last week. I'll side with the Bears plus the points on Monday night.
The pick: Bears +4.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]2.0 passing touchdowns by Philip Rivers (-130 O, +110 U)
John Parolin says: Rivers has put up big numbers this year, topping the 300-yard mark in six of his eight games and throwing 18 touchdown passes -- more than every quarterback except Tom Brady and Carson Palmer. So why is the under the right play for Rivers?
Rounding the prop off at 2.0 makes all the difference, as a 1.5 would make the over a resoundingly good play. But Rivers' starts since 2011 break down like this -- he's hit the over in 22, the under in 29 and exactly two touchdowns in 20 of his starts. Chances are pretty good that he'll throw for a pair, but with the extra incentive via the money line to take the under, it's the smart play -- and that's without considering that he lost top wideout Keenan Allen for the season with a lacerated kidney. Allen ranked in the top three in targets, receptions and yards (trailing only Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins in all three). Rivers will miss him, and with the added benefit of the plus-110 line, take the under.
The play: Under
85.5 receiving yards by Alshon Jeffery (-110 O/U)
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</article>John Parolin says: Alshon Jeffery has been back for two games, putting up 147 and 116 receiving yards against the Lions and Vikings defenses, respectively. Picking apart Detroit's defense isn't a great accomplishment -- the Lions have allowed 10.2 yards per target to wide receivers this season, worst in the league. But Minnesota is more of an eye-opener. The Vikings have allowed 6.8 yards per target to wide receivers, fifth best in the league.
Where do the Chargers fall? At 9.2 yards per target, San Diego is closer to Detroit than Minnesota. Considering Matt Forte won't be on the field, the pressure could be on Jay Cutler to make plays -- and he doesn't look for anyone as often as Jeffery. In fact, over the last two weeks, no one has been more important to their team's passing offense than Jeffery. He has accounted for 47 percent of Chicago's targets and 55 percent of the Bears' yards -- both the highest of any player in the league. Ride the hot hand.
The play: Over
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 52; now 49.5
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: Both teams have let down backers (Chargers are 3-5 ATS despite covering in last week's loss at Baltimore; Bears are 3-4 ATS), and the public is mostly landing on the Chargers as the home favorites.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: Sharps haven't weighed in heavily on this game yet, as it's been Chargers -4 most of the week. If it goes to -4.5, there will probably be an influx of wiseguys taking the points.
Tuley's take: Both teams seem to take every game down to the wire, so there might be a little value in taking the Bears, but I'm going to stick with the theory I've talked about the past few weeks with taking the over in games with teams that are pretty much out of it. The offenses tend to play a loose, playground style of football, winging the ball all over, and defenses don't offer much resistance. It worked last week with this same San Diego team at Baltimore (went over 50.5), and I expect the same thing here.
Philip Rivers and his No. 1 offense (in terms of yardage) will get his yards and points, and the Bears should do the same with Alshon Jeffery again being Jay Cutler's favorite target (note: we know Matt Forte is out, but Jeremy Langford -- while not Forte -- won't be too much of a drop off, especially with the Bears mostly passing the ball).
The pick: Over 49
Erin Rynning says: The Bears started the campaign in dismal fashion, dropping to league-low levels from a power rating perspective. However, this was a banged-up football team, notably on offense. Looking back, losing to the Packers, Cardinals and Seahawks really isn't such a horrific deal. Since regaining their footing and players, they've played competitive football with a 2-2 record. Working with a new coaching staff, this Bears team still can improve as the season moves forward. Meanwhile, of the two wins the Chargers have recorded, not one tally's a margin by more than five. Plus, their two wins were against the Lions and Browns, which continues to look lesser by the week. This is a team with an offensive line in shambles, and they lost their best offensive weapon inKeenan Allen last week. I'll side with the Bears plus the points on Monday night.
The pick: Bears +4.5
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]2.0 passing touchdowns by Philip Rivers (-130 O, +110 U)
John Parolin says: Rivers has put up big numbers this year, topping the 300-yard mark in six of his eight games and throwing 18 touchdown passes -- more than every quarterback except Tom Brady and Carson Palmer. So why is the under the right play for Rivers?
Rounding the prop off at 2.0 makes all the difference, as a 1.5 would make the over a resoundingly good play. But Rivers' starts since 2011 break down like this -- he's hit the over in 22, the under in 29 and exactly two touchdowns in 20 of his starts. Chances are pretty good that he'll throw for a pair, but with the extra incentive via the money line to take the under, it's the smart play -- and that's without considering that he lost top wideout Keenan Allen for the season with a lacerated kidney. Allen ranked in the top three in targets, receptions and yards (trailing only Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins in all three). Rivers will miss him, and with the added benefit of the plus-110 line, take the under.
The play: Under
85.5 receiving yards by Alshon Jeffery (-110 O/U)
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</article>John Parolin says: Alshon Jeffery has been back for two games, putting up 147 and 116 receiving yards against the Lions and Vikings defenses, respectively. Picking apart Detroit's defense isn't a great accomplishment -- the Lions have allowed 10.2 yards per target to wide receivers this season, worst in the league. But Minnesota is more of an eye-opener. The Vikings have allowed 6.8 yards per target to wide receivers, fifth best in the league.
Where do the Chargers fall? At 9.2 yards per target, San Diego is closer to Detroit than Minnesota. Considering Matt Forte won't be on the field, the pressure could be on Jay Cutler to make plays -- and he doesn't look for anyone as often as Jeffery. In fact, over the last two weeks, no one has been more important to their team's passing offense than Jeffery. He has accounted for 47 percent of Chicago's targets and 55 percent of the Bears' yards -- both the highest of any player in the league. Ride the hot hand.
The play: Over
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