[h=1]How to bet Houston-Cincinnati[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Houston Texans atCincinnati Bengals[/h]Spread: Opened Cincinnati -11; now Cincinnati -11
Total: Opened 47.5; still 47.5
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: Everyone loves a winner. The Bengals are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with the only noncover coming in their 27-24 overtime win/push over the Seahawks in Week 5.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: There were some offshore books that opened this game at -12 and -13, but most books went with Cincinnati -11 and the sharps took the under there as well. They'll probably continue to side with the double-digit underdog and this will be a sharps vs. squares game.
Tuley's take: I was high on the Bengals even before the season began, but they're getting to the point of being overrated. I certainly understand them being favored here, but by two scores? Statistically, the Bengals are No. 6 in total offense while the Texans are No. 9. Defensively, the Bengals are No. 12 while the Texans are No. 14, so there's not a huge difference. Can Cincinnati cover this number? Certainly, but I see the Bengals as having a 7- or 8-point lead late in the game and this will come down to whether Houston has a chance to send the game to overtime or Cincinnati gets that last score to put it over the number (of course, I'd be happy if the third option came in with the game staying right at 7 or 8).
The pick: Texans
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog: It has been a long time coming, but Cincinnati QB Andy Daltonappears to be taking the next step. He has teased Bengals fans for the past couple of years, showing flares of brilliance, but this season he has been consistent, and subsequently, his Bengals are 8-0 for the first time ever. Brian Hoyer doesn't get a lot of ink, but many would not believe that his past 32 NFL starts have seen his team average 24.6 PPG, more than the 23.7 PPG the Bengals have scored in the past 72 games started by Andy Dalton. The problem this year for Houston is a defense that is allowing 21.2 PPG. Those 32 starts by Hoyer have led to a 20-12 mark to the over. The Bengals under Dalton have been very offensive when they are heavy chalk, as they have averaged 34.1 PPG as a favorite from -7 to -14, with the average total points coming in at 54.
The pick: Over
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]262.5 pass yards by Andy Dalton (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: Dalton is averaging 278.3 pass yards per game and has an even 4-4 split on 262.5 in his eight games this season. A cursory glance at the Texans' defense suggests "under," as Houston has allowed 263 pass yards once this season. Dalton's having the best season of his career for the undefeated Bengals, but there's more reason to be concerned.
Dalton somewhat dispelled the prime-time narrative on a team level in Week 8, leading the Bengals to a 31-10 win against the Browns on Thursday night. But even when scoring 31 points in a win, Dalton managed only 234 pass yards. Dalton has not been a volume producer in prime time over his career, coming up short of 263 in nine of his 11 career starts at or after 7 p.m.
One reason for Dalton's success doubles as a reason to bet the under -- with a couple of capable backs and good offensive line play, Cincinnati doesn't need Dalton to carry too much of the offense. The Bengals have called designed rushes on 42.9 percent of plays, the fifth-highest percentage in the league. That fits where Houston has been vulnerable as well -- the Texans are allowing 123.5 rush yards per game (27th in the league), while Houston's average of 227.4 pass yards per game is eighth best. Too many factors support the under here, even if the Bengals comfortably get to 9-0.
The play: Under
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 47.5; still 47.5
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: Everyone loves a winner. The Bengals are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with the only noncover coming in their 27-24 overtime win/push over the Seahawks in Week 5.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: There were some offshore books that opened this game at -12 and -13, but most books went with Cincinnati -11 and the sharps took the under there as well. They'll probably continue to side with the double-digit underdog and this will be a sharps vs. squares game.
Tuley's take: I was high on the Bengals even before the season began, but they're getting to the point of being overrated. I certainly understand them being favored here, but by two scores? Statistically, the Bengals are No. 6 in total offense while the Texans are No. 9. Defensively, the Bengals are No. 12 while the Texans are No. 14, so there's not a huge difference. Can Cincinnati cover this number? Certainly, but I see the Bengals as having a 7- or 8-point lead late in the game and this will come down to whether Houston has a chance to send the game to overtime or Cincinnati gets that last score to put it over the number (of course, I'd be happy if the third option came in with the game staying right at 7 or 8).
The pick: Texans
[h=2]Over/under[/h]Wunderdog: It has been a long time coming, but Cincinnati QB Andy Daltonappears to be taking the next step. He has teased Bengals fans for the past couple of years, showing flares of brilliance, but this season he has been consistent, and subsequently, his Bengals are 8-0 for the first time ever. Brian Hoyer doesn't get a lot of ink, but many would not believe that his past 32 NFL starts have seen his team average 24.6 PPG, more than the 23.7 PPG the Bengals have scored in the past 72 games started by Andy Dalton. The problem this year for Houston is a defense that is allowing 21.2 PPG. Those 32 starts by Hoyer have led to a 20-12 mark to the over. The Bengals under Dalton have been very offensive when they are heavy chalk, as they have averaged 34.1 PPG as a favorite from -7 to -14, with the average total points coming in at 54.
The pick: Over
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]262.5 pass yards by Andy Dalton (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: Dalton is averaging 278.3 pass yards per game and has an even 4-4 split on 262.5 in his eight games this season. A cursory glance at the Texans' defense suggests "under," as Houston has allowed 263 pass yards once this season. Dalton's having the best season of his career for the undefeated Bengals, but there's more reason to be concerned.
Dalton somewhat dispelled the prime-time narrative on a team level in Week 8, leading the Bengals to a 31-10 win against the Browns on Thursday night. But even when scoring 31 points in a win, Dalton managed only 234 pass yards. Dalton has not been a volume producer in prime time over his career, coming up short of 263 in nine of his 11 career starts at or after 7 p.m.
One reason for Dalton's success doubles as a reason to bet the under -- with a couple of capable backs and good offensive line play, Cincinnati doesn't need Dalton to carry too much of the offense. The Bengals have called designed rushes on 42.9 percent of plays, the fifth-highest percentage in the league. That fits where Houston has been vulnerable as well -- the Texans are allowing 123.5 rush yards per game (27th in the league), while Houston's average of 227.4 pass yards per game is eighth best. Too many factors support the under here, even if the Bengals comfortably get to 9-0.
The play: Under
