[h=1]How to bet 2016 World Series futures market[/h]
- Joe Peta, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Now that the final out of the 2015 season has been made and the Kansas City Royals are world champions, you might think it's a time of rest for a baseball handicapper. However, thanks to the forward-thinking bookmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, it's time to examine into the 2016 futures, which have been out for several days.
Before diving in, I have one obligatory handicapping note of caution on futures. The average MLB game has a -135/+125 line, which converted to win expectancy is 57.4 percent and 44.4 percent, respectively. Notably those figures total 101.8 percent. That excess 1.8 percent represents the bookmaker's edge and you can think of it as selling a $100 bill for $101.80. Doing that same math on the 2016 World Series futures as posted at the Westgate reveals a $100 bill being sold for $148.53. Therefore<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">, by definition, there is no such thing as value on any single team.</offer>
"But what if I pick the winning team" you might ask, "Surely I'm not going to regret that pick." While that may be true, so is this: With overwhelming certainty it can be assumed that you were not compensated properly for the risk you took.
So, while nothing in this piece constitutes a recommendation, it's still an instructive exercise for looking ahead to the 2016 season and getting a feel for who might be undervalued when it is time to start placing some total wins bets next March.
Here are some factors which typically uncover potential underrated teams.
2015 bullpen meltdowns
Compared to offensive production, starting pitching and defense, team bullpen performance has the highest variance and lowest correlation from year to year. Further, most non-closer relievers can be acquired for something close to replacement-level wages so a bullpen deficiency is the easiest element of poor performance for a GM to correct from one year to the next. Recent examples include the Seattle Mariners (29th, first and 26th in bullpen ERA the past three years, resulting in 71, 87 and 76 wins respectively) and the Houston Astros, who went from 30th in bullpen ERA in 2014 to sixth last year after directing resources at the bullpen for the first time in years.
<aside class="inline inline-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></aside>Some 2016 candidates for bullpen improvement include, most interestingly, the Texas Rangers, who made the playoffs despite ranking 24th in bullpen ERA, as well as the Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox.Dodgers 8-1 Mets 10-1 Blue Jays 10-1 Cubs 10-1 Nationals 10-1 Cardinals 12-1 Rangers 12-1 Astros 12-1 Pirates 12-1 Yankees 16-1 Red Sox 18-1 Royals 18-1 Giants 20-1 Angels 20-1 Tigers 20-1 Indians 20-1 Mariners 30-1 Rays 40-1 Orioles 40-1 White Sox 40-1 Twins 40-1 Reds 60-1 A's 60-1 Padres 60-1 Diamondbacks 60-1 Brewers 60-1 Marlins 60-1 Braves 100-1 Rockies 150-1 Phillies 300-1 -- Courtesy of Westgate SuperBook
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Odds To Win '16 World Series</caption><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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Cluster luck
Even casual baseball fans are aware of Bill James Pythagorean Theorem, which judges the quality of a team's win-loss record based on its runs scored/runs allowed differential. By that measure the Cleveland Indians, Oakland Athletics, Astros and even the Toronto Blue Jays all had win totals significantly below their run-differential ranking. However, the Pythagorean method of assessing wins considers only actual runs scored and allowed, as opposed to how many runs a team should have scored or allowed based on the underlying production on offense and while pitching. The difference is largely, but not entirely, a result of sequencing and it has gotten a lot more attention in recent years. In examining the matter in great detail in my 2012 book, "Trading Bases," I dubbed it "cluster luck."
On offense, Detroit and Seattle pop up again as teams that played better than it appeared. And Cleveland wasn't just unlucky converting runs into wins, the Indians were even unlucky with the actual number of runs they scored. From a runs allowed perspective, it's revealed that Cleveland was a double loser, also ranking as a top-five unlucky team on that side of the ledger. Perhaps alarmingly for the rest of the National League, the Cubs were even better than their final tally of 97 wins suggested.
Replacing sub-replacement level performances
The concept of the replacement level player is fairly basic; for minimal price, anyone can be acquired to perform at a replacement level. That's not necessarily helpful in constructing a team, but it does suggest that if a team had sub-replacement level performance from a player or players over the course of a season, instant improvement can be achieved in the following year. By far the team with the most low-hanging fruit is the Chicago White Sox, but other mid-performing teams that look fairly certain to have an upgrade on offense include the Red Sox and Tigers.
Injuries
Fans and commentators often underappreciate the benefit starting rotation health provides a team. The difference between even a No. 3 or No. 4 starter (often referred to as an "innings eater") and the replacement-level spot starter is huge. The Dodgers, who also were subject to a significant amount of negative cluster luck on offense, used an unheard of 16 starting pitchers over the course of the 2015 season.
[h=2]Undervalued teams[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
</article>Based on just these factors, my first impression is that in 2016 theIndians (20-1 to win the World Series), Mariners (30-1) andWhite Sox (40-1) are the most undervalued teams heading into the offseason. However, there is one other team to consider and its analysis falls under the heading of . . .
Common sense. You don't have to have taken graduate-level statistics courses to figure out the significance of this sequence:
Yearly results of the San Francisco Giants
2010 World champions
2011 Missed playoffs
2012 World champions
2013 Missed playoffs
2014 World champions
2015 Missed playoffs
Disregard what I said at the top of this piece, at any price a futures bet on the Giants is a bargain!
Hope everyone had a profitable 2015 season and I look forward to an in-depth preview the 2016 season and total wins market next March.
2016 record on Chalk:
2015 over/unders: 10-5-1
2015 Sunday Night Baseball: 14-8 (+6 units)
2015 postseason: 12-2 (+10.77 units)
